Saga Share Discussion Threads

[diohohku] 22/9/2021 11:51

....... and stressed 😂

[purchase_atthebottom1] 22/9/2021 11:49

The Group has reported an Underlying Loss Before Tax of £2.8m, compared to an Underlying Profit Before Tax of £15.9m in the prior period. 
Underlying loss EPS -2.7p
Loss per share -2.2p
A current cash burn of -£5.9 million per month,

[stretford1964] 22/9/2021 11:48

DIOHOHKU has a guilty conscience because she lost a fortune investing in CNA and hates others making a profit. Lovvvvvvvely

[disc0dave45] 22/9/2021 11:47

Paul Scott: I'm happy to be patient, this share could take a year or two to re-rate, providing nothing goes wrong. I see the current market cap as completely wrong, out of kilter with a business that has the potential to recover to making £150-200m p.a. pre-tax, take off 25% tax, that's £112-150m earnings, divided by 140.1m shares in issue = 80-107p per share. At the current share price of 339p, that's a PER of between 3.2 - 4.2 - clearly a ludicrous undervaluation.What about debt? I ignore the cruise loans, as that's just like HP on a car - they own the assets, which offsets the debt. That leaves only a relatively small £225m of other debt, which should be repaid from cashflows over the next few years.I think, once recovery from travel has happened, this share could sensibly be valued on a PER of 12 (hardly demanding!) and that suggests a price target of 960-1284p - fabulous upside on the current 339p, if my estimates turn out to be correct, which they may not of course, anything could happen, we don't have a 100% reliable crystal ball. It's always educated guesswork with any share, trying to look into the future.

[diohohku] 22/9/2021 11:40

WARNING: do not have a different opinion to a certain person posting here, or you are a troll!!!!!!!

[disc0dave45] 22/9/2021 11:36

Your trolling reputation on ADVFN trumps speculation old chap.All the best

[purchase_atthebottom1] 22/9/2021 11:31

Disco, you are speculating far too wildly with no knowledge
Disco hasn't a clue🤣

[purchase_atthebottom1] 22/9/2021 11:29

Alliance News) - Saga PLC, which provides insurance, cruises and package holidays to people over 50, on Wednesday said revenue fell and it made an underlying loss, as confidence to book travel remains low.

It reported a pretax profit of GBP700,000 in the six months to July 31, from a GBP55.5 million loss a year before, when Saga recorded heavy restructuring costs and a goodwill impairment. Revenue was down 19% to GBP156.4 million from GBP192.4 million.

But on an underlying basis, excluding impairments and money from asset sales, Saga made a loss of GBP2.8 million from a profit of GBP15.9 million a year prior.🤣

[glavey] 22/9/2021 11:28

Numis note: Best seen as a promotion, not an assessment. They are selling.

(As for your superfluous supplementary comment, Disco, you are speculating far too wildly with no knowledge. But then I'm not here to discuss my position with anyone, so feel free to carry on in ignorance.)

[disc0dave45] 22/9/2021 11:26

From Numis. Overall they sound very positive and give a Buy rating.Solid insurance, encouraging travel bookings â€" A small pre-tax operating loss of -£3m is a beat versus consensus of -£9m, driven by motor underwriting. Results for all other parts of the business are broadly in line with forecasts, which we consider to be a good outcome given the challenging insurance market in the period. Operating cash flow of £42m is ahead of expectations, resulting in net debt of £227m at Jul-21 (ex-ships) being £39m better than consensus of £266m. Consequently ND/EBITDA of 2.4x is also better than consensus of 3.0x and is a reduction from 2.7x at Jan-21. Insurance underwriting benefitted from a more pronounced reduction in claims costs than modelled, resulting in a current year combined ratio of 88%. Reserve releases of £18m were also £2m ahead of consensus. The launch of new pricing models has driven underwriting footprint expansion, resulting in policy growth for the first time in 9 years in Q2. Boking margins for motor and home insurance have remained stable despite price softening in H1, demonstrating continued resilience of Saga’s revitalised insurance strategy. Customer retention remains high at 81% and overall motor/home customer numbers increased slightly (+0.5% yoy). There is no change to guidance that the FCA pricing rules will likely cause some short-term financial impact (already estimated in our forecasts). Cruise bookings data is encouraging, with Saga describing demand as very strong for next year. Load factors for this year have been suppressed by government capacity restrictions. Booked load factors are 70% for this year and 59% for next year, which is said to be ahead of pre-pandemic levels. Perhaps more significantly, per diem revenues are materially ahead of forecasts at £302 per passenger day for this year and £306m for next year, versus the previous budget/guidance of around £285. In the short-term, at least all of the per diem outperformance will be consumed by additional Covid-related costs (eg single-occupancy transfers and testing costs), but we think the higher achieved rate bodes well for medium/long-term cruise EBITDA outperformance versus original guidance of £40m/ship. Tours has had a slow restart due to ongoing travel restrictions uncertainty (£18m bookings for the current year) but encouragingly next year bookings of £109m is 18% ahead of pre-pandemic levels. However, Saga sounds a note of caution that there is still scope for Covid-related volatility. On first read we think consensus PBT for the current year might come down a bit (slower tours restart offsetting underwriting beat). Future forecasts look well supported, albeit there may be the need for added prudence on travel PBT if Covid disruptions persist. Overall, we think today’s results demonstrate Saga’s business is on a solid footing with a positive outlook, which supports are BUY thesis

[diohohku] 22/9/2021 11:22

Looks like someone has got a guilty conscious?

[stretford1964] 22/9/2021 11:19

Just chilling out while I double-check my SAGA profit. STRESSED AND OBSESSED PURCHASE-ATTHEBOTTOM1 can't comprehend what a profit is. She's well stressed today. Lovvvvvely.

[diohohku] 22/9/2021 11:18

unhooked

Price: 343.80

No Opinion

RE: ResultsToday 10:08
Beware of people who boast about their trading performance.

[stretford1964] 22/9/2021 11:09

Just chilling out while I double-check my SAGA profit. STRESSED AND OBSESSED PURCHASE-ATTHEBOTTOM1 can't comprehend what a profit is. She's well stressed today. Lovvvvvely🤣

[disc0dave45] 22/9/2021 11:09

Just posting their assessment, take it or leave it.Another one who missed the boat and trashing this whilst missing out on doubling their money.Cio

[sardine2] 22/9/2021 11:07

Thanks for the above. S

[glavey] 22/9/2021 11:04

Numis are shop, what do you expect them to write?

[disc0dave45] 22/9/2021 11:03

From Numis. Overall they sound very positive and give a Buy rating.


Solid insurance, encouraging travel bookings – A small pre-tax operating loss of -£3m is a beat versus consensus of -£9m, driven by motor underwriting. Results for all other parts of the business are broadly in line with forecasts, which we consider to be a good outcome given the challenging insurance market in the period. Operating cash flow of £42m is ahead of expectations, resulting in net debt of £227m at Jul-21 (ex-ships) being £39m better than consensus of £266m. Consequently ND/EBITDA of 2.4x is also better than consensus of 3.0x and is a reduction from 2.7x at Jan-21. Insurance underwriting benefitted from a more pronounced reduction in claims costs than modelled, resulting in a current year combined ratio of 88%. Reserve releases of £18m were also £2m ahead of consensus. The launch of new pricing models has driven underwriting footprint expansion, resulting in policy growth for the first time in 9 years in Q2. Boking margins for motor and home insurance have remained stable despite price softening in H1, demonstrating continued resilience of Saga’s revitalised insurance strategy. Customer retention remains high at 81% and overall motor/home customer numbers increased slightly (+0.5% yoy). There is no change to guidance that the FCA pricing rules will likely cause some short-term financial impact (already estimated in our forecasts). Cruise bookings data is encouraging, with Saga describing demand as very strong for next year. Load factors for this year have been suppressed by government capacity restrictions. Booked load factors are 70% for this year and 59% for next year, which is said to be ahead of pre-pandemic levels. Perhaps more significantly, per diem revenues are materially ahead of forecasts at £302 per passenger day for this year and £306m for next year, versus the previous budget/guidance of around £285. In the short-term, at least all of the per diem outperformance will be consumed by additional Covid-related costs (eg single-occupancy transfers and testing costs), but we think the higher achieved rate bodes well for medium/long-term cruise EBITDA outperformance versus original guidance of £40m/ship. Tours has had a slow restart due to ongoing travel restrictions uncertainty (£18m bookings for the current year) but encouragingly next year bookings of £109m is 18% ahead of pre-pandemic levels. However, Saga sounds a note of caution that there is still scope for Covid-related volatility. On first read we think consensus PBT for the current year might come down a bit (slower tours restart offsetting underwriting beat). Future forecasts look well supported, albeit there may be the need for added prudence on travel PBT if Covid disruptions persist. Overall, we think today’s results demonstrate Saga’s business is on a solid footing with a positive outlook, which supports are BUY thesis

[purchase_atthebottom1] 22/9/2021 11:00

Stresshead getting stressed OMI and SAGA fooooooked 🤣

[purchase_atthebottom1] 22/9/2021 10:55

Alliance News) - Saga PLC, which provides insurance, cruises and package holidays to people over 50, on Wednesday said revenue fell and it made an underlying loss, as confidence to book travel remains low.

It reported a pretax profit of GBP700,000 in the six months to July 31, from a GBP55.5 million loss a year before, when Saga recorded heavy restructuring costs and a goodwill impairment. Revenue was down 19% to GBP156.4 million from GBP192.4 million.

But on an underlying basis, excluding impairments and money from asset sales, Saga made a loss of GBP2.8 million from a profit of GBP15.9 million a year prior.🤣

[diohohku] 22/9/2021 10:45

unhooked

Price: 343.80

No Opinion

RE: ResultsToday 10:08
Beware of people who boast about their trading performance. ( Post taken from Saga LSE board).

[stretford1964] 22/9/2021 10:34

The 'simple one' is STRESSED AND OBSESSED PURCHASE_ATTHEBOTTOM1 who failed to buy SAGA at £1.19 and lost a fortune on CNA. Absolute novice. I have a nice 5-figure profit and looking 3 years ahead, so not worried about short-term fluctuations. Loving SAGA, still my best performing share, so can't complain. Lovvvvvvvvvvely.