Saga Share Discussion Threads

[scottish007] 11/12/2022 19:37

Saga 2023 - first 6 months.
There were big changes to many sailings, particularly January.

Doubles avail) (Singles avail) (% sold)

January
12th - 25th (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (310)(61)(31.83%)
As @ 11/12 - (187)(11)(61.46%)
25th - 8th Feb (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (323)(73)(28.03%)
As @ 11/12 - (195)(4)(60.56%)

Jan sales
@ 10th August = 29.93%
@ 11th December = 61.01%

February
2nd - 18th Feb (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (176)(23)(62.46%)
As @ 11/12 - (115)(15)(75.48%)
8th - 15th Feb (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (358)(90)(19.32%)
As @ 11/12 - (289)(33)(38.84%)
15th - 28th Feb (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (291)(64)(35.33%)
As @ 11/12 - (165)(0)(66.97%)
18th - 5th Mar (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (166)(20)(64.76%)
As @ 11/12 - (108)(3)(78.08%)
28th - 15th Mar (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (306)(68)(31.93%)
As @ 11/12 - (226)(12)(53.55%)

Feb sales
@ 10th August = 42.76%
@ 11th December = 62.58%

March
5th - 4th Apr (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (128)(0)(74.37%)
As @ 11/12 - (130)(2)(73.77%)
15th - 31st Mar (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (353)(85)(20.82%)
As @ 11/12 - (266)(41)(42.64%)
31st - 22nd Apr (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (117)(0)(76.58%)
As @ 11/12 - (89)(4)(81.78%)

Mar sales
@ 10th August = 57.26%
@ 11th December = 66.06%

April
4th - 9th Apr (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (288)(45)(37.84%)
As @ 11/12 - (221)(16)(54.15%)
9th - 1st May (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (209)(7)(57.46%)
As @ 11/12 - (165)(3)(66.67%)
22nd - 7th May (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (190)(2)(61.76%)
As @ 11/12 - (150)(2)(69.77%)

Apr sales
@ 10th August = 52.35%
@ 11th December = 63.53%

May
1st - 6th May (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (320)(60)(29.93%)
As @ 11/12 - (274)(39)(41.24%)
6th - 21st May (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (303)(62)(33.13%)
As @ 11/12 - (252)(27)(46.85%)
21st - 4th Jun (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (305)(66)(32.33%)
As @ 11/12 - (162)(7)(66.87%)
7th - 14th May (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (284)(49)(38.24%)
As @ 11/12 - (193)(16)(59.76%)
14th - 26th May (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (220)(38)(52.15%)
As @ 11/12 - (144)(10)(70.17%)
26th - 5th Jun (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (97)(0)(80.58%)
As @ 11/12 - (20)(0)(96.00%)

May sales
@ 10th August = 44.39%
@ 11th December = 63.48%


June
4th - 22nd Jun (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (172)(18)(63.76%)
As @ 11/12 - (108)(1)(78.28%)
22nd - 29th Jun (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (245)(31)(47.85%)
As @ 11/12 - (131)(1)(73.67%)
29th - 16th Jul (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (118)(0)(76.38%)
As @ 11/12 - (105)(0)(78.98%)
5th - 19th Jun (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (294)(65)(34.63%)
As @ 11/12 - (130)(12)(72.77%)
19th - 6th Jul (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (234)(33)(49.85%)
As @ 11/12 - (216)(27)(54.05%)

Jun sales
@ 10th August = 54.49%
@ 11th December = 71.55%

Jan - Jun 23 avg sales
@ 10th August = 46.86% sold
@ 11th December = 64.70% sold

[scottish007] 11/12/2022 16:23

If that’s what you take from this conversation then you can add unwilling to learn to the list ;-)

[stewart64] 11/12/2022 16:01

What a nasty bit of work you are. The worst in my experience of this forum. All I did was state the obvious that the purchase of the ships was far too ambitious, overleveraged the Company and indeed was the main driver behind the fall in the share price. 100% correct and not nonsense. Goodnight.

[scottish007] 11/12/2022 15:10

Never once have l called out the ‘recovery play’ as nonsense - l actually think there is something wrong with you.
If it weren’t for covid, Saga would have hit the ground running with two profitable ships.
Your consolidation kindness thing is idiotic. It’s 15 to 1 not rocket science.
Comparing a 20’s ship to Titanic is utter buffoonery and that’s me being generous.
Oh and wealthy people don’t cruise with Marella (second hand ships), they want luxury smaller ships and pay a healthy premium for that privilege.
Now please, gies peace.
You’ve made a rip roaring erse of yourself and were it not for covid (which none of us foresaw) the two ships would’ve been a masterstroke.

[stewart64] 11/12/2022 08:12

Regarding hindsight..I have found one of my posts on 23rd November 2017. This was the first of many posts as a shareholder at the time I made concerned they were over extending. I did bail out not long after, before the shares became virtually worthless relative to the ipo.

"Those two cruiseliners under construction bother me ..literally flag shipping. Is it too stupid to suggest the Marine equivalent of Motorpoint..you know buy a couple a year old that have lost value".

[stewart64] 11/12/2022 06:32

And my original two posts said the investment in the ships sank the Company ( I even said there was a possible recovery play) which you called out as nonsense. What was nonsense about that. I said it might pre Covid ( look back to my posts about 2018), I didn't need hindsight. To stake such a large part of Market Cap on one project was total madness..it then formed about a third of Market Cap, now the original cost of the ships are worth multiple times Market cap. Whether there is a recovery plays from hereonin is a totally different matter.
You also jumped on my error re. Consolidation, I was actually trying to be kind covering the fact the chart might be skewed by a factor of two, well it wasn't. And it had no bearing on the argument whatsoever.

I also stick to my guns that these are massive ships. Spirit of Adventure...58,000 tonnes, Titanic 46,000 tonnes....go check it out.

[scottish007] 10/12/2022 21:29

I never once said the drop in value was a success - I simply highlighted the absolute nonsense you posted.
If you could have foreseen covid then the ships were a bad investment. You couldn’t, so your point is reliant on hindsight. However, they now have 2 ships turning in a profit. Given their value and the value of the insurance side, this company is undervalued. Notwithstanding their current debt.

[stewart64] 10/12/2022 19:30

It's idiotic trying to spin 2 billion Market Cap shrinking to 150 million as a success. And the Market consolidation was totally irrelevant to the fall in the chart. You are clutching at straws.
Do you honestly believe the share price would be where it is now had they not over leveraged on the two ships. The ships cost more than three times present Market Cap, in my book that is putting all your eggs in one basket.

[stewart64] 10/12/2022 12:32

Scottish 007...regarding the consolidation the Market Cap
in 2014 at the ipo was 2 billion it now stands at just 150 million. Share charts are adjusted for that Consolidation.
I have not said this might not be a recovery stock ( it might be undervalued NOW), my comments were aimed at a mid cap Company risking spending half a billion on 2 ships in the PAST. ( 3 times the present Market Cap!!!!!!!!!!!!!)


I' m quite annoyed actually that you called me ill informed. How can anybody try and spin the cruise line venture as a success, given the losses shareholders have borne. Of course it sank the company..2 billion to 150 million is cataclysmic.
And btw if you look back to my posts when the cruise liners were planned on this forum you will see I was concerned back then, so not merely hindsight.

[stewart64] 10/12/2022 11:55

I was a shareholder and it was more or less an insurance company at that time. The cruise liners were rather putting all the eggs in one basket... their capital value made up multiple times the Market Cap after the fall.

As regards comments on secondhand cruise liners...they are all secondhand once they've travelled the maiden voyage. There was nothing to stop Saga buying one a couple of years old of the same standard at a fraction of the price.

[scottish007] 09/12/2022 18:46

Ships hold max 999 passengers each.
First six months of 2023 already almost 70% sold.
Shares went 15 to 1, not 2 to 1.
Have a look at the ships and the prices achieved per head.
The people with this kind of money do not sail on ‘massive’; or ‘second hand ships’
You do realise this is primarily an insurance company, yeah?
Oh and nobody could have foreseen covid.

[aishah] 09/12/2022 18:45

There's a very nice bowl forming here. Expect a lot of affluent over 50s to book themselves cruises at 2012 prices! Big pent up demand post covid

[scottish007] 09/12/2022 18:38

Stewart - Rarely have l read such misinformed nonsense.
Go do some research for all our sakes.

[stewart64] 09/12/2022 13:38

I'm sorry but the shares were nearly 30 quid when they decided to build these ships, it's now a quid. The days of seeing if it worked out have long gone. Yes maybe as a recovery stock from a quid, but nobody is going to make their money back from the inception of the scheme. The sensible thing to do would have been to buy a secondhand ship.

[boll] 09/12/2022 13:14

Ships are considerably smaller than some of their competitors so not sure what the basis is for the comment above. The ships are an upgrade so that the saga offering for holidays and leisure is now pitched at the wealthier customer segment. The tim8ng of the purchases was unfortunate but then who could have forecast Covid.The logic behind having an insurance business mainly broking which is highly cash generative and a leisure business needs re-examining but now is no5 the best time. Better to awai5 a return to full ongoing profitability before relook8ng at this. The customers and business are going to be a lot more valuable in a year or two s9 that an informed decision can be made

[stewart64] 09/12/2022 12:40

The ships were massive and extremely expensive, the depreciation must be eye watering. I don't think they were ever going to return a profit. A bit like trying to make a profit hiring out a top of the range Rolls Royce.
I was a shareholder at the time ( more fool me) when they tried to turn themselves into White Star Line by building the Titanic and Olympic that went on to sink the Company. I guess Managemenr must have their toys and why not have the biggest toys.

[diku] 06/12/2022 09:14

Surely Middle East investors could snap the Cruise business for a song...Qatar is becoming popular with Football publicity...smaller scale Cruising...

[bigbigdave] 05/12/2022 11:36

Summer holiday bookings are surging: Sales of 2023 breaks are running almost a quarter ahead of pre-pandemic
Holiday firms are reporting a leap in the number of sun-starved Britons hatching plans for next year.

Sales of summer 2023 breaks are running almost a quarter ahead of pre-pandemic comparisons, according to Julia Lo BueSaid, chief executive of Britain's largest independent group of travel agents Advantage Travel.

'There's a large market who have savings, haven't travelled for some years, and are keen to,' she said.

[kulvinder] 01/12/2022 16:16

Orient, maybe when price finally manages to settle above 105....at the moment having trouble passing 100.

[aishah] 01/12/2022 14:29

A major OTA says cruises next year will “remain at the same price as an equivalent sailing a decade ago” despite inflation hitting a 41-year high of 11.1%.

Tony Andrews, deputy managing director of Cruise.co.uk, backed up the prediction during a media briefing on Tuesday (November 29) following analysis by the agency of sailings from “multiple” cruise lines.

Cruise.co.uk found the majority of voyages ranging from seven to 14 nights in the Mediterranean, northern Europe and the Caribbean when looking back over the last decade were “cost consistent”.

Prices for a 14-night Caribbean cruise including flights with P&O Cruises came in at £1,659 in 2012, but a matched sailing next year the price was £1,139, Cruise.co.uk said.

Andrews (pictured) said: “2023 is shaping up to be another year where cruise holidaymakers can take advantage of the incredible value for money an escape at sea offers.

“Next year we can really showcase the amazing value of cruise against other holiday types.”

[0rient] 01/12/2022 14:08

Definitely looks like we have started an uptrend now and have broken the downwards pressure...first target back to 150p. Feel like we may even get some positive news and get a spike upwards..

[kulvinder] 24/11/2022 17:06

Broke it just, let's hope it continues north from here...

[diku] 24/11/2022 09:11

On the verge of breaking 100p?...

[diku] 18/11/2022 08:52

Probably all long posters on this thread would retire...at current state it is just ploding along...either sell one part of company to a buyer or consortium of 2 buyers...split the insurance and leisure/cruises...those Saudis could easily take the new ships for Cruising...high oil price billions floating about...for them loose change...