Safestyle Uk Share Discussion Threads

[sphere25] 15/4/2021 14:14

Ok so we have reached the 60p short term target now. No drama in the price as this is typed, it is stable. It has been an interesting one. Technicals: We can see the way the chart has been curving up with buyers coming in on the dips. The real big signal here on the recent trades was the way the buyers had been coming in for big chunks of shares with the likes of Invesco and CI Investments getting bought down or out entirely - real stand out moves which caused a significant imbalance in the demand/supply dynamics to drive the price higher. Fundamentals: Clearly SFE are making more bullish noises of late with forecast upgrades and the market is now pricing in further forecast upgrades, but some interesting sector related news (as well as general RMI and wider insights) out today. EPWN: "RMI demand quicker to return and stronger than new build and social housing" "COVID-19 period has stimulated demand for home, garden and leisure space spending as it has highlighted the need for improvements, addressing maintenance and more recently for creating workspace. These trends seem set to continue. Medium and long-term drivers for the RMI market remain positive" Like SFE, they are ahead of forecasts: "2021 has started well, with trading up to the middle of March slightly ahead of the Board's expectations despite the poor weather experienced in January and early February" However, they are being realistic in setting expectations going forward: "For homeowners who have retained their jobs, disposable incomes and savings have increased due to decreased commuting and less expenditure on holidays, eating out and leisure activities. In addition, many of these households have had to spend significantly more time in their properties due to working from home and lack of availability of other leisure opportunities, which has meant more of their funds have been redirected to repair and maintenance as well as improving their homes. It is possible that as the lockdown measures decrease towards the second half of the year then consumers may switch their spending priorities to holidays and leisure activities at the expense of repair and maintenance." So just how sustainable is all this? There are also interesting comments on cost inflation headwinds: "PVC raw materials supply remains under pressure with shortages from global events driving up the price of resin significantly to all-time highs. Steps are being taken to recover these costs in the market in an equitable manner" "PVC resin prices will be a headwind, certainly in the short term, following force majeure and planned plant maintenance at two of the largest PVC resin producers with operations in Europe during Q4. This has severely restricted supply in the final quarter of 2020 and continued to put pressure on resin availability and prices during the first quarter of 2021" Forecasts prior to today were: EPS 2020 2.3p 2021 5.1p It looks it has priced in a earnings recovery to at least 2022 and the market is more than comfortable with that. TPK also out today with a few snippets: "The Group has enjoyed an encouraging start to the year with robust like-for-like sales growth across our businesses, underpinned by strong demand in the RMI market" "Throughout January and February all businesses saw a continuation of the trends from the last quarter of 2020. During March, however, the Group experienced a marked step up in activity with pent-up demand and continued high levels of housing transactions fuelling higher RMI spend" Some interesting comments by TPK on cost price inflation again. It makes you wonder if that will become a real issue nearer than the markets are anticipating, not only for companies, but all economies. QE forever and major stimulus programmes could cause some major headwinds in future so interesting to note some of these early comments from companies. Also have NXR out today: That statement was scheduled, but it is still the third upgrade, in no less than six weeks! Canaccord clearly provided a great opportunity there. RMI clearly flavour of recent times: "Our UK business has continued to perform strongly with revenue for the second half at 115% of prior year on a like for like basis(2) reflecting the increased activity in the repair, maintenance, and improvement (RMI) sector" Forecasts prior to today were: EPS 2021 25.0p 2022 28.2p NXR is like EPWN rating wise, never commands a big multiple and the market appears more than comfortable in the picture out to at least 2022. Clearly it is all about sustainability and how much of this pent up demand will unwind and then how the inflation dynamics kick in. These will be some of the big questions for SFE. The commentary from EPWN in particular is interesting in terms of how they are guiding on the outlook. Even though the price in SFE has been rallying strong, it is still dividing opinions with Invesco and CI Investments jumping ship in a rather abrupt manner, whereas Soros Fund are aggressively on ship and installing an extra engine (or two) with upgraded rudders. But which way will the ship eventually flow? (Cue dramatic music) Interesting times! All imo DYOR

[sphere25] 13/4/2021 15:50

Nibbled a few more here. Despite all the selling here, price still edging higher and they're queuing up on the book here for shares atm - looks peculiar. It could be breakout time. RNS shows CI Investments have cleared out 9.16% and the price is going higher. As stated before, it just shows very strong demand in the market for SFE shares atm so happy to ride along with that, regardless of views. Can't see too much else out there atm beyond a stream of buys in SAA earlier but clearly a seller in size still at work there so a big clear out needed by the looks of things. I can see a stream of buys coming into FUM this afternoon. That is ahead of the results tomorrow, unsure if that means good news or just some highly speculative buying. Haven't made any moves there, just holding a small position. WJG also report tomorrow. That has gone really well since catching the breakout, already lobbed there. Some decent blocks coming into SIS at 61p this afternoon - already a load of posts on that board. CNKS and XPD tipped by Simon Thompson. Barring anything major, that's about all for now. All imo DYOR

[sphere25] 12/4/2021 15:06

Catch up on interesting activity here: Over 21m exchanged on the 8th April - blowout stuff for SFE. Clearly both sides of the exchanges there, though the split of trades isn't straightforward to decipher, even with today's RNS. Suffice to say the Soros Fund are well and truly going for it in SFE (having already been buying) and now bumping up in an interesting way from 15.03% to 20.99%. They have picked up 1.5m shares outright to take their voting rights attached position from 15.03% (20,566,135) to 16.13% (22,066,135) and then done an equity swap to pick up another 4.86%. Aggressive and real stand out movements. Surely Soros are expecting material share price gain to do a swap like that. Don't often see swaps in these UK based small caps, rare. Almost makes you want to hang on alot longer and see how it pans out...almost! Ha I guess time will tell just how smart that move is. 55p vs 56p currently as key marks. Judging by the order book, looks like buyers in size at 54p and 55p at the moment mopping up sells, Soros possibly still not had the full fill? All imo DYOR

[sphere25] 07/4/2021 15:21

They weren't all out because a few start lobbing after the last post too! :-D The price keeps moving higher though, fortunately my buys (only the sells are a buy signal) aren't a technical sell indicator - Spherical MACD Alarm Bell RSI Sell-a-rama! Who knows, they might be in future! There is a sneaky 2k on the bid here, which is a hell of alot bigger than it appears. Someone is in the market again with the mop out. Only just noticed the order now with the larger sell orders on the offer at 54.8p being cleared out allowing the price to move higher. As close as we can watch things, there are still some sneaky operators in the market with their well hidden mops at work. Let's see if we can get to 60p - nice whole numbers the market likes. Spread has widened out too much at the moment (54.6-57), see if it comes back in first. All kinds of continued lovely moves out there following the FTSE250 higher. It is a relentless one way wave. Switch off the screen and come back in a week and you're likely to be up! These moves across markets with no healthy corrections almost make you wonder if this is the beginning of some parabolic blow off top. Easy to get carried away, but resetting to zero again despite the good times. A good ole reset that helps keep things in check. All imo DYOR

[sphere25] 06/4/2021 11:32

Ok that RNS first thing explains the recent activity with Soros Fund Mangement (SFM) adding to increase their position to 15.03% of the company. No prizes for guessing who is well behind the bull case then! It looks like Invesco are on the other end and that is what makes a market. Last time I mentioned these, brought out all the sellers....every man, woman, dog, cat and goldfish were lobbing: "Hey that Sphere guy bought, MAJOR sell signal! Get out, get out whilst you still can". Are they all out now? All imo DYOR

[dancing piranha] 30/3/2021 16:26

Oh, and another 10k just for good measure..

[dancing piranha] 30/3/2021 16:23

I've taken 10k this afternoon, let's see where this goes!

[sphere25] 30/3/2021 15:16

Taken a few here. Price currently threatening a breakout up 5.2% at 52.8p Should really go sit outside and take abit of sun in, but why do that when you can get involved with windows and doors eh? As per the posts above, the market is clearly coming in for big chunks here. It looks like (regardless of whether it was an Invesco clearout) at least 6% of the company has found buyers very recently at these price levels without any share price weakness. On the 9th March someone also came in for 7.5m at 48.1p which was almost 6% of the company. Despite my only trading this and Invesco not wholly (possibly fully now, if they have cleared the lot out) backing the bull case, there are clearly other buyers in size in the market who are backing it by coming in for big chunks. Furthermore, the price rallied to 57p on the day of the recent update and has clearly been brought back by Invesco (in the main) so if we are clearing the main seller, it could move higher. There is decent support at 49p and 50p on the book with LCAP having shifted higher (stick a stop under 49p). And just how bored do you have to be to only realise you have typed all this up? "Long SFE" next time? Have these large buyers exhausted the sellers at these price levels to allow the price to move higher? All imo DYOR

[sphere25] 30/3/2021 09:38

More interesting activity this morning: 4m print just hit followed by 3.5m Two earlier 1m prints 09:58 Any more for any more? If we consider both sides of the recent large trades, that could be Invesco cleared out and thus suggesting 10% (EDIT: Invesco are still using the old pre-placing number shares in issue to get to 9.98% in the holding RNS. Their position, before lobbing, of 8,263,940 actually currently represents 6.2%) of the company has been gobbled up in no time. 52p is the key mark to watch IF the sellers have been cleared with all this significant demand coming in for SFE shares.

[sphere25] 29/3/2021 13:13

So there is the seller with Invesco cutting their position more than half from 9.98% to 4.66%. Clearly they aren't wholly backing the bull case playing out so lobbing into the rise, but who is on the other end that is confident of the bull case to pick up big chunks of the company? Another two big prints at 50p today (possibly both sides of the trade barring delayed prints): 1m 1.1m It could be Invesco lobbing more, but these are real noteworthy and substantial volume movements in the SFE dynamic. Clearly looking for a trade here, but still too many sellers covering off any break higher. It is a wait and see if the buyers will exhaust the sellers or vice versa. All imo DYOR

[sphere25] 25/3/2021 17:43

SFE have form in disappointing. I remember back in 2017 (it carried on in 2018 with the entry of an aggressive new competitor), it was almost every two months that they delivered profit warnings - ended up with four or five buses (that needed new windows) rather than the usual warnings that come in three. I always keep a note of the ones that have such form because it is easy to forget bear points, particularly in markets like this where things look a one way street. That is not to suggest this can't be a change for the better for SFE. Clearly they are delivering in the near term, but I have ridden it up and just happy trading now. Let's see what the next update brings! All imo DYOR

[my retirement fund] 25/3/2021 16:17

It's just not very transparent is it? I never like companies that play their costs down whilst simultaneously talk up their revenues. I was lucky to get 55p.

[sphere25] 25/3/2021 14:38

Clearly not alone as the market has sold it down (from 57p to 51p currently), so despite the move higher today and indeed the much more rewarding recovery move from the lows, there are some lingering concerns. Just noted a bigger buy order come on the bid at 51p: 215k. It has been sold into it so clearly still sellers in size here at work, but the price is now setting up for a battle between 50p on the downside vs 52p on the upside. Let's see if any more notable buy orders pop up on the book. All imo DYOR

[my retirement fund] 25/3/2021 11:01

I'm afraid I was unable to put their costs into perspective though and on that basis I did sell.

[my retirement fund] 25/3/2021 08:17

Yes still looking good, plenty of reason's to keep buying, few to want to sell.

[sphere25] 25/3/2021 08:15

Well done if you kept the faith here. Price is up 17%. With another forecast upgrade, it almost sounds like SFE are going to deliver with Numis being bang on the money. Whoever picked up that 6% chunk of the company a few weeks back are clearly going to be happy! All imo DYOR

[tallprawn] 25/3/2021 08:09

Outlook statement very positive this morning.Should be a move back to the 75p-80p area over the next couple of months.Easy buy and hold here for some decent returns later in the year.

[sphere25] 09/3/2021 14:39

Looks like I should have had more faith here. 7.5m print at 48.1p this afternoon. Almost 6% of the company exchanged in one fair swoop. Which way will it break on that whopper for holders here? Not always straightforward with SFE All imo DYOR

[hasago] 20/2/2021 19:26

There are very few staff last , the canvassers have all joined other companies, branches closing, the top reps have joined a new company, a new company starting in the North will scoop up the remaining staff. The safestyle price for windows and doors has become very expensive and unaffordable. They are known as a low quality product but very cheap so crack the orders out. Now they are too expensive, the reps couldn't sell , the name is beyond tarnished, every Facebook post is attacked and filled with angry faces. The company has lost its identity, offers a limited choice of products, i can genuinely say this companys future is awful. The extent of the damage will be truly seen when lockdown is over and they announce they have no staff. People at the very top have caused all of this as they brought a failed philosophy that doomed previously great window and door companies.To stand any chance of clinging on they would need a 30% drop in price of all there products. Too many staff have been stung , canvassers have lost all trust.Expect companies like Anglian to capitalise on this seismic collapse of a pvcu giant

[sphere25] 12/2/2021 15:20

Interesting to note some of the director participation recently. I guess the director buys at SFE are a small positive. It's still not setting the world on fire really is it. It clearly depends on how you view director buying and what your threshold is on getting bullish. Maybe more to follow to send a real signal that says "WE ARE DEFINITELY CONFIDENT IN OUR FUTURE, OUR SHARES ARE CHEAP AND DAMN YOU SPHERE WITH YOUR APPREHENSIVE TRADING MENTALITY ON OUR SHARES". To put things in perspective, we saw a good chunk bought at SAA recently which has resulted in a nice re-rating. We have KMK today with piddly amounts - hardly bullish. Directory buying at BWNG today looks a good signal because that is a sizable amount and paying well through the recent offer. Conversely, we saw OTB director dumping a short while back which was a short term signal. We also then have peculiar situations like MANO where there is sizable selling bizarrely at the lows with an almost grab what you can mentality. Quite a mix out there. All well worth keeping tabs of. All imo DYOR

[my retirement fund] 12/2/2021 14:47

Looking good

[wynmck] 12/2/2021 09:14

Dir Buy 10k shares

[wynmck] 11/2/2021 16:24

CEO buys 120,240 @ 40.5p

[shaker44] 11/2/2021 11:39

The ever pessimistic Charlie is right though - seriously under valued as mistrusted. Gotta earn its way back. Shouldn't be too hard