S4 Capital Share Discussion Threads

[wallywoo] 16/4/2024 18:11

Out at 47p tells me you are an idiot. You could be out today at 55p, with a load more profit. Or out yesterday at 60p.


I have no doubt that this will hit 47p before long. That's because H1 24 results will be terrible.

[wallywoo] 16/4/2024 17:39

Rubbish tongosti. H1 Results will be very poor. Therefore, the share price will be poor too. You are just encouraging pi's to buy into a small rally. S4 has had many small rallies from 850 downwards.

[tongosti] 16/4/2024 17:28

read following again pal:

One gets rich/poor by simply being constantly on the right/wrong side of moving averages.

If your reading of "fundamentals" force you to go long on the wrong side of the moving averages then we all know what that means.

Fundamentals here were amazing at 850 and terrible at 35. Markets top on good news and bottom on terrible news. Clearly, you still have to learn markets proceed fundamentals not the other way around.

Long story short, it doesn't matter how you cut it, THE only way to make a coin in this game is to stay on the right side of MA's. FACT.

However, if you can make (literally0 one single example where one went belly up staying on the right side of the market, please let us know. All ears ... One single example ...

PS. you are effectively saying the market cannot go up because your reading of fundamentals is what you say they are. that's your opinion. What I am saying is that the market doesn't care what your opinion is but has a mind of its own. One only makes money agreeing with the market's opinion. fact am afraid not an opinion. due to my ginormous size at correct inflection point, I am up huge reading the tape correctly and you still tell me what i see on the screen is wrong simply because it doesn't make sense - ... to you...!

[wallywoo] 16/4/2024 17:08

Tongosti, one gets rich or poor by looking at the business momentum and buying companies for recovery.


Sfor has £10m of extra debt in H1, and h2 2023 was a huge downturn in revenue compared to previous periods.

2021 rev(m) h1 279m h2 408m

2022 h1 446m h2 624m

2023 h1 517m h2 494m


So business momentum is very bad and extra debt has been deferred until now. So there's very little chance of a good recovery yet. All those millions spent on acquisitions wasted.

[tongosti] 16/4/2024 16:29

auson

Encouraging bounce off the 21 day's. Indicates good support and that's an A+ in my book.

PS. Wally - one gets rich/poor by simply being constantly on the right/wrong side of moving averages. I agree it's very boring but one is in this game to make money (a really boring exercise) not for the excitement (a really expensive exercise - Vegas % these boards are testament to that).

[auson1] 16/4/2024 16:29

tongosti,

Yes it will either bounce from there ( quite likely ) or wally gets to claim victory and still wait for his 30p target to buy back in.

[tongosti] 16/4/2024 15:15

acid test fellas ...@21day's.

key level to watch (and to act on dear wally, if you know what you're doing)!

[wallywoo] 16/4/2024 13:33

Tongosti, do you really have to post up to 10x a day? When there's very little to report/ discuss. I know your job is to attract as many readers as possible to get an interest in sfor. But it's sooo dull!!!How many times can you mention moving averages?? And still not actually report any interesting share price likely moves!!

[auson1] 16/4/2024 12:46

wallywoo,

Is net debt at 18.5% of revenue massive ?

[wallywoo] 16/4/2024 12:37

Lol, the ramping on this BB is ridiculous. Huge ye ha we are going to the moon on the way up. Shocked quiet on the way down. This will recover in the medium term. But it won't be quick. Massive amounts of debt, and a poor business outlook will make recovery look like paint drying. In the meantime, we all have to endure tongosti, auson and Nige endless boring ramping drivel!!!

[tongosti] 16/4/2024 10:36

MD - there is one particular scenario where i would be firmly in your camp. That is if a stock trades forever >> key moving averages. If so, I will also stay long forever with my trailing stops rising nicely in lockstep with the trend. Unfortunately, I have found out that stocks are not that well behaved.

Again, it is a matter of perspective as that makes a market but I definitely see where you come from pal.

Good luck and come on S4!

[tongosti] 16/4/2024 10:29

A very small touch of discretion in place to adjust for specific liquidity and rapid price change profiles. You may not need it when trading most US stocks but def do so when trading (most) UK stocks.

[mister md] 16/4/2024 10:23

I'm taking an investment rather than trading approach, in the hope I get a decent return over the medium-long term. SFOR has had some big growth years and I'm sure they will eventually come back. A dividend payout would be nice too. Definitely not one of my top 10 holdings, but a higher risk higher reward type of play.

'¤ Following the recently completed share buyback of 1% of the Company's share capital earlier this month, the Board will consider paying an inaugural dividend following this year's half-year results, if further operational progress has been made. Our focus remains on using free cash flow to reduce debt, buyback shares and dividends.

Strategic and operational highlights

¤ After four years of very strong growth (like-for-like net revenue growth of 44.0% in 2019, 19.4% in 2020, 43.7% in 2021 and 25.9% in 2022), 2023 was a difficult year with a like-for-like decline of 4.5% in net revenue. After growth in the first half of the year, the third and fourth quarters were more challenging. '

[auson1] 16/4/2024 10:07

tongosti,

Very enlightening, is that all automated or manual ?

At the moment it looks like an algo wants to take it down.

[tongosti] 16/4/2024 09:47

In other words one uses a staggered approach. Took a few off at 55 and (if it goes there) by 47 I am all done. Hopefully it won't go there but that's up to the market not us. I can always get back in but not keen to allow profits go into the red. 21 dma at 51

[tongosti] 16/4/2024 09:44

Function of relevant atr%. Usually 2h/4h/day timeframe going back 20 periods. Each stock has a different atr and one takes that into account

[auson1] 16/4/2024 09:41

tongosti,

What percentage is your trailing stop loss set at ?

[tongosti] 16/4/2024 09:35

Of course it does. Especially if Mr FTSE reverses course all bets are off. Stocks follow wider markets irrespective of merit. Blindfolding oneself in the name of the indeterminate longer term is a recipe for disaster. S4 is a living proof of that. I am a big fan but am always open to all eventualities. Managing risk is the name of the game IMHO and one never allows profit to go into a loss.

[cardinal3] 15/4/2024 19:00

That last price was a UT so probably will be different in the morning. I'm invested and confident but don't worry about daily or hourly movements.

[nige co] 15/4/2024 16:39

Noticed some large buy trades this afternoon, still not enough to stop the declining share price, closed down 1.85p 3.21% @55.7p. Disappointing.

[nige co] 15/4/2024 16:06

Disregard my last comment, it would seem to be old news, July 2022.

[nige co] 15/4/2024 16:03

The Barclays recommendation was reported on the other discussion board, it would seem that this broker is old news, July 2022. My apologies.