Ruspetro Share Discussion Threads

[darcon] 29/1/2013 04:36

"Oil traded near the highest level in four months in New York on signs of economic growth in the U.S. and after OPEC Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri said prices are unlikely to drop this year."

"The oil market is well-balanced and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries doesn't "envision a price collapse" in 2013, El-Badri said in London."

"Brent for March settlement rose 6 cents to $113.54 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The average volume of all contracts traded was 60 percent below the 100-day average."



Good news for RPO on the oil market front. If the oil price remains at the current levels, as OPEC seem to be expecting, then it will make up for part of the production short-falls. Add to that the better taxation rate on condensate and the company might be on track to commercialise its reserves notwithstanding the production shortfall, albeit perhaps at a slightly slower rate than before.

[darcon] 28/1/2013 17:21

With all the negativity I think it's worth reflecting what the news items could be to turn the stock price around if all goes to company's plans in 2013:

- completion of full offering of Senior Secured Notes (although the management are pitching to investors in London this week it is conceivable that the issue could be wrapped up earlier than Friday, which would be interpreted as a vote of confidence in management)

- announcement of heat exchange system coming on-line in February and production ramp-up to 9,000 crude and condensate production

- conversion of Limolines loan to shares at 134p, repayment of Sberbank loan and release of new revolving facility

- announcement of share of condensate in liquid reserves - Otkritie note in their O&G weekly monitor todady that this should be coming out in April 2013

- Repayment of Makayla debt in August

- Reserves upgrade

- S&P credit rating upgrade (the S&P report notes that there is room for one upgrade)

- company beating crude and condensate 2013 exit rate of 13,000 with average of 10,000 bopd for 2013

- Russian government lowering taxes on tight oil fields further boosting economics of company's reserves

- steady or rising oil price owing to global growth / continued Middle Eastern unrest, which compensates for production shortfalls (there is a hint of this in today's Otkritie note where they state: "At the same time,
we note that classification of some of the liquid reserves as condensate vs oil
leads to a much better taxation rate (-$20/bbl at Brent $110/bbl), which changes
the economics of the field and offsets the negative impact of the reviewed
parameters, if any."

The risks to the above are well-outlined in the S&P credit report which is on Ruspetro's website.

[ranj79] 28/1/2013 15:18

Guys it's just someone else's view.. Besides if it was that bad, why is e looking to buy in!

[longandshortofit] 28/1/2013 14:46

what a dirty old dog.

[rcturner2] 28/1/2013 14:35

it's in a downtrend

wait until the trend changes

never try to catch a falling knife

[ranj79] 28/1/2013 12:44

Sorry wrong link.. This one. http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Business-profile?s=RPO:LSE

[ranj79] 28/1/2013 12:42

Just get the feeling the price is being kept down? Again we have a higher ratio of buys to sells. I see mostly all major institutions have maintained there holdings as of 17th of Jan. http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Summary?s=RPO:LSE

[darcon] 28/1/2013 12:41

Here is the link to the rest of Otkritie's analysis:

[darcon] 28/1/2013 12:39

"RusPetro: Condensate supports the investment case" according to Otkritie's analysts, but intriguingly nothing further is stated

[ntbb] 28/1/2013 11:17

this really should be going up with the latest news, given that in few weeks limolines would buy these shares at ipo price!

[cottoner] 26/1/2013 13:35

Today's Times

Tiddler to watch

Relief about a debt restructuring led to a 5.6% rally for RusPetro to 49.5p.
The Siberian oil explorer,backed by President Putin's former deputy chief of staff, is converting $63 million owed to its biggedt shareholder into shares at the 134p float price and is isuing $350 million of senior secured debt to repay a bank loan.

[cottoner] 26/1/2013 08:53

From the Mail's This is Money - Market Report :

"Siberian oil group RusPetro came in from the cold after unveiling a bond issue, thought to be around £220million, to repay a loan from Russia's Sberbank. In return it will get a new £32million revolving facility, while it is also building a heat exchange system to lift production. It comes after the company missed output forecasts earlier this month, sending shares tumbling by more than 40 per cent. It gained 2.62p, closing at 49.5p."

[sat69] 26/1/2013 00:21

Ruspetro (RPO): Bear Trap Below 50p

There are calls on stocks and markets that you know ahead of time are likely to be easy or at least straightforward, there are calls which are challenging, but as far as Ruspetro is concerned it could very well be that we are looking at something which could a thankless task. This is said on the basis of the shares having fallen so far that cynics would suggest a rebound was overdue from from say, the 50p zone. While this may be correct it can also be said that so far in it relatively short history on the stock market Ruspetro has proved to be one thing, and one thing alone: a sell into strength.

In fact at this stage the jury is still out as to whether the latest bear trap rebound from below 50p is an intermediate affair or the start of a permanent recovery. But what can be said is that the bullish divergence in the RSI window between the initial 49.5p January low and the second 45.5p low is a clear buy signal. In addition to this we have also bounced off a September support line which looks to be the lower part of a falling wedge (bullish) chart pattern. Finally, an end of day close today back above 49.5p would complete a trio of signals which should take Ruspetro up for a 2-4 week target as high as the 2012 resistance line currently at 70p. Any weekly close above that could signal the "permanent" recovery being hinted at here.

[sat69] 25/1/2013 16:48

RusPetro PLC (LON:RPO)– Forward Plan Set: Today's announcement from the Company has to some extent, drawn a line under what has been a period of underwhelming performance. The balance sheet is in a better state, but the key now is delivery. With exit target rates of 13m boepd in 2013, 20m boepd in 2014 and 31m boepd in 2015, we now have something simple that the Company has pledged itself to, and that we can measure it by. 2013 will be an interesting year, as they have also outlined an average production rate of 10m boepd, which indicates that they are expecting a real uptick in 2H'13 (the new heat exchange equipment is commissioned in February and is expected to take production to 9m boepd). We will keep a watching brief.

In this news:

• Strengthening of Ruspetro's balance sheet including:

o An expected offering of senior secured notes ("Notes") (details of which are in a separate announcement also made today);

o A corporate and security credit rating expected later today from Standard and Poor's;

o Proposed conversion of Limolines Transport Limited's ("LTL" or "Limolines") outstanding shareholder loan into new ordinary shares in the Company, at the IPO price of 134 pence per share subject to the successful Notes offering; and

o A new revolving facility at an initial level of US$50 million extended to the Company by Sberbank post repayment of the existing Sberbank facility from the proceeds of the Notes.

• An update on near term production:

o Heat exchange system expected to come on-line in February 2013 enabling condensate production to increase from the current level of 1,400 bopd towards 4,000 bopd and bring total crude and condensate production from 6,500 bopd to approximately 9,000 bopd; and

o Given the cash generative nature of condensate production, 9,000 bopd of combined production is equivalent to approximately 12,000 bopd of crude oil only production in well head revenue terms.

• An updated development plan setting out:

o Average crude and condensate production planned for 2013 of 10,000 bopd, with a target 2013 exit rate of 13,000 bopd, followed by target exit rates of 20,000 bopd in 2014 and 31,000 bopd in 2015

o Plans to drill 29 wells in 2013 and 48 wells in 2014

[rcturner2] 25/1/2013 16:13

these falling knife shares are always so depressing

everyone thinks they can see the bottom

for gods sake wait for the moving average to turn

[longandshortofit] 25/1/2013 15:31

one good thing about rpo everytime the price looks quite cheap to buy it then gets cheaper!

[salpara111] 25/1/2013 14:22

While todays announcement is undoubtedly welcome, it is still only a plan....ie nothing in the statement has been executed yet and that is where they usually fall down so when these things come to pass then a rerating back towards 100p can begin but the market has been burned too many times already.
Similar story with JKX and EXI etc.

[wigancasino] 25/1/2013 13:21

In other words, he hasn't got a clue!

So it's sit and wait like the rest of us or take a loss.

Thought with the RNS today would appeal to the market but it's more a question of expect the unexpected.

Que sara

[pabloiom] 25/1/2013 11:57

Bit of TA on this

[ntbb] 25/1/2013 10:24

iv added and holding 50k shares, if its good enough for ltl to pay for new shares at 134p then its good enough for me