Ruspetro Share Discussion Threads

[zooshare] 09/1/2013 15:24

this used to be the quietest bb on the planet. where did all the shorts come from?

[gwr7] 09/1/2013 14:10

Still waiting for your next arrogant riposte durby but don't let me keep you from the toilet.
"Well done to those who got in at 65p levels today."
Not.

[the ballcock] 09/1/2013 12:33

all of these shares in ukraine and russia are a con

UEN/JKX/CAD/RPO any more on the list ?

[acefromspace] 09/1/2013 12:02

Good luck to all who invest here - decided to many risks now for me. Held until it dipped below 60p despite substantial buying this week. The trend is down and with last weeks out of hours statement I have lost faith so taken a loss here and moved on.

[sat69] 09/1/2013 11:27

Bought another 10k

[ranj79] 09/1/2013 11:19

Funny how this BB was quiet a month back? Why all of a sudden the interest in this share.. If they are no good? They are issues with this share granted, but overstated.. The fall in price over the last 6 months has factor this in.

[ntbb] 09/1/2013 10:30

he said almost the same thing with cey, lol

[the ballcock] 09/1/2013 09:56

think he's right this time - it's a con. SUSPEND it.

[darcon] 08/1/2013 19:44

I also saw checked FT for articles on Ruspetro and was reminded that apparently the debt needs to be "refinanced" in the first half of 2013. So even if they don't need new cash, the recent poor operational performance may lead to adverse impacts with respect to bank's evaluation of risk and therefore on the interest rate and various bank covenants.

[darcon] 08/1/2013 19:41

Thanks pabloiom. I have added the link to the header under bear case articles

[m w] 08/1/2013 17:57

rbc capital markets today put a price target of 125 on it

[darcon] 08/1/2013 17:15

Given their large salaries and incentives any such buying will need to be significant to be convincing.

[sat69] 08/1/2013 17:08

Given that directors bought massive stakes at prices considerably north of £1, I doubled up today. At these levels, I believe more director buying is imminent, and the rns could give us a shot in the arm.

[darcon] 08/1/2013 17:01

To be classified as reserves four criteria must be satisfied: the reserves must be (1) discovered; (2) recoverable; (3) commercial; and (4) remaining.

I don't believe DeGolyer and MacNaughton would have made material mistakes when analysing the geological data or that this would have been data open to manipulation (but I am not a petroleum geologist so what do I know). The criterion that is likely to be playing the key role in leading to the divider between the proved and unproved probable reserves in my view in RUSPETRO's case is the third criterion, ie, their commerciality.

Over optimistic projections of recovery, depletion rates, costs, etc if taken on their face could have a material impact and lead to proved reserves dropping to probable and probable to possible once those projections are reappraised.

[rcturner2] 08/1/2013 16:55

Well if the true P2 number is 173m, then quite a lot lower.

[mcpaulas] 08/1/2013 16:53

How low can this get before a recovery is on the cards??

[rcturner2] 08/1/2013 16:52

So is 173m barrels the real figure and the 1.5bn barrels just pie in the sky?

[darcon] 08/1/2013 16:45

It's worth also noting that the licence extension RNS of 28 Dec 2012 was only in respect of one of the three licences. That begs the question of what is the status of the other two licences? Does RUSPETRO expect similar new conditions on APG flaring prevention to be imposed for the East Inginsky and Pottymsko-Inginsky licences? How much extra capex might be required as a result? Does it remain in compliance with their licence conditions?

[darcon] 08/1/2013 16:38

durby,

The independent third party Degolyer and MacNaugthon report on reserves states at page 3:

"In the preparation of this report we have relied, without independent verification, upon information furnished by RUSPETRO with respect to ownership, production, current costs of operation and development, current prices for production, agreements relating to current and future operations and sale of production, and various other information and data that were accepted as presented."

So although an independent third party prepared the reserves statement he did so on data provided by Ruspetro. Following the abominable 4 Jan after-hours RNS investors may feel justified in taking a dim view of Ruspetro's reliability in providing timely data and start applying a discount factor to the reserves statement as a consequence.