Ruspetro Share Discussion Threads

[ntbb] 25/1/2013 10:13

"Given the cash generative nature of condensate production, 9,000 bopd of combined production is equivalent to approximately 12,000 bopd of crude oil only production in well head revenue terms"

[ntbb] 25/1/2013 10:10

solid rns today, love this bit,

Proposed conversion of Limolines Transport Limited's ("LTL" or "Limolines") outstanding shareholder loan into new ordinary shares in the Company, at the IPO price of 134 pence per share subject to the successful Notes offering; and

[madmonkflin] 25/1/2013 10:10

Over $60m cash
Over $60m of that debt to be converted to shares at £1.34
Cash positive operationally, and about to increase production.
P1 reserves of 173mbbl.
The RNS says 12000boepd revenue-wise once theyre back online in February.
Hardly a basket case.

[simon gordon] 25/1/2013 10:02

$350m is a lot of debt to service. With such a lousy track record you'd think they'd be paying 8 to 10 per cent.

[madmonkflin] 25/1/2013 10:01

Having said that it's not clear if there's a difference between D&M and the offical russian reported reserves. Someone else with more knowledge of the company might be able to enlighten us.

[madmonkflin] 25/1/2013 10:00

DeGolyer and MacNaughton (D&M), the auditor of our reserves, has recently completed their competent person's report dated 31 December 2011. Proved reserves increased from 157mbbl as of 31 August 2011 to 173mbbl as of 31 December 2011. Proved and probable reserves have more than doubled over the last two years from 737mbbl as of 31 May 2010 to over 1.5 billion barrels as of 31 December 2011

[madmonkflin] 25/1/2013 09:59

They must be, look at the trouble Imperial Energy got into with the russian authorities over 'mistating' their reserves.

[longandshortofit] 25/1/2013 09:48

the market reckons 51.38p at 9.47am

[madmonkflin] 25/1/2013 09:48

Not sure the market agrees at the moment. Wait until the additional production is back online in February. P2 reserves of over 1bn barrels :)

[ntbb] 25/1/2013 09:03

this share is worth alot more then 53p

[simon gordon] 25/1/2013 08:57

STOCKHOLM (Standard & Poor's) Jan. 25, 2013--Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services said today that it had assigned its preliminary 'B-' long-term
corporate credit rating to London-based independent oil and gas exploration
and production company RUSPETRO Plc. The outlook is stable.

At the same time, we assigned a 'B-' preliminary issue rating to RUSPETRO's
pending $350 million notes issue.

The preliminary ratings are subject to the successful issuance of the notes
and our review of final documentation. Any change in the amount or terms of
the issue would trigger a review by Standard & Poor's and could affect the
current corporate credit and issue ratings.

The corporate credit rating reflects RUSPETRO's business risk profile, which
we qualify as "vulnerable", and its financial risk profile, which we assess as
"highly leveraged".

Key weaknesses for the "vulnerable" business risk profile include the
company's current small hydrocarbon production base nearly 6,500 barrels per
day, a limited production track record, and only modest proven and developed
oil and gas reserves. We think there is still significant execution risk to
the planned production increase, both in 2013 and 2014.

The company had 183 million barrels of proven reserves on June 30, 2012, of
which only 11 million barrels were developed, however. Reserves are
concentrated in three fields in Western Siberia in Russia. Consequently, in
our view, the company is also exposed to single-country risk, particularly in
relation to potential changes to its taxation regime. Generally we view the
exploration and production business as highly volatile.

These weaknesses are somewhat mitigated by RUSPETRO's expectations of strong
near-term production growth, large proven and probable reserves of more than
1.5 billion barrels, which provides significant upside potential, and
anticipation that a large share of production will be condensate. The high
share of condensate is positive, as it is taxed lower in Russia and therefore
it is positive for profitability and cash flow. Generally we view management's
experience in the industry as positive.

The outlook is stable and reflects our expectation that RUSPETRO in the short
term will improve production and in 2013 start to generate meaningful EBITDA
and cash flows. In the short term, downside risk could be created if
management is unable to ramp up production as planned. We expect production to
average 10,000 barrels per day in 2013. Pressure could also emerge if there
are any major unforeseen production implications.

In the medium term, there could be potential for a one-notch upgrade, but such
upward rating pressure would likely require sustainable funds from operations
to debt of more than 20%.

[ranj79] 25/1/2013 08:52

I hope they do! :)

[ntbb] 25/1/2013 08:22

theres no way conversion would of been done if they didnt think it was worth it, 134p!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ntbb] 25/1/2013 08:19

short are going to get severly burnt

[wigancasino] 25/1/2013 08:18

Very nice to eat my own words just as I am about to open the draw and put them away.

Spreadbet Mag gives very good forward looking optimism, particularly like this if it proves true:


SBM TAKE - The conversion price of the loan notes at a price equivalent of 134p is a real vote of confidence in the company and an indication of the true value of RPO. Should management be successful in reaching their production targets for 2013 & 2014 then however you look at it, the current share price is a total nonsense.

[longandshortofit] 25/1/2013 08:14

problem with sbm's opinion is theyre in at 104. sure theyd say anything....
probably worth a punt from these prices though.but this a v dodgy prospect.in the 40s id probably take a few once it settles but I wouldn't bother chasing a bounce on this..gl

[west coast trading] 25/1/2013 07:53

all looks good now time to bottom fish. EXI could be interesting from here also. Some great oversold oilers out there gents.

[ranj79] 25/1/2013 07:46

Finally some positive RNS.. Yup agree some major blue on the cards :)@darcon & Sat69 what do you make of the news?

[dohnot] 25/1/2013 07:31

surely a nice blue day to come and from whats been stated a rerating within 6 months easy imo

[ntbb] 25/1/2013 07:30

Lol, just watch how this and exi fly today

[here and there] 25/1/2013 07:26

just one fly in the ointment. terms of new senior secured notes.

conversion at 134 is excellent news

as is 'intended' production once this ..delayed... bit of kit is on line

[gary1966] 25/1/2013 07:21

I would say that that is all rather good news. Lots of confidence in that the loan is being repaid with the issue of equity at 134p. Well back on line in Feb at higher rates. Cash flow positive already and so production of additional condensate from February should boost this further. Lots of drilling planned for 2013/14. Very, very upbeat statement. Should be an interesting day.