Shell Share Discussion Threads

[bg23] 24/3/2020 16:12

erogenous, I understand your comment about US shale producers going bust might be the catalyst for Russia/Saudi coming to a production agreement, but, I think you are probably a year ahead of events.

I imagine the Russia/Saudi spat needs to be more painful to both the main producers to bring them back to the table.
However I think the main problem is that the remains of bust shale producers will be auctioned off to cover part of the debt. new owners cost of production will be consequently lowered as new debt is raised against forward sold production.

I am slightly surprised at the lack of hedge in the market from several years in the $60-70 range, but I suppose complacency meant less forward selling against new debt.

Regardless, I see this situation of lower prices into the middle of next year unless we get an unexpectedly severe winter period, then things might start to normalise.

what nd how that leaves Shell, I don't know, but I keep rolling my dividends back into my holding - which started out as BG - so I am well offside!

[spud] 24/3/2020 15:58

Agreed! Probably bored away from school.

spud

[zho] 24/3/2020 15:49

discusses whether large oil companies can manitain dividends. From 11am GMT.

[montyhedge] 24/3/2020 15:01

Now they stopped buybacks, I'm confident they will pay, fund managers rely on Shell, GSK, HSBC. The big dividend players.

[waldron] 24/3/2020 14:50

zho
24 Mar '20 - 14:45 - 11847 of 11848


CHEERS ZHO


Shell’s doomed defence of the dividend

Shell famously hasn’t cut dividend to shareholders since the second world war and, even with a global recession looming and the price of a barrel of Brent at $30, management still isn’t ready to throw in the towel on a payment that cost $15bn last year.
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Monday’s statement on measures “to reinforce business resilience and financial strength” was filled with cuts to capital spending and operating costs plus a halt to share buybacks. None of that is surprising given that Shell’s financial plans had been based on oil being about $65 a barrel. Yet the dividend, it seems, will be defended until all other options are exhausted.

The fight seems doomed to end in defeat, however, which is why Shell’s shares stand at their lowest level since the mid-1990s. The 14% notional dividend yield signals the market’s view that a cut is inevitable.

This prospect will be terrifying to many income-seeking pension funds. They were sure of Shell. Even a halved dividend will have been mentally filed as a low-probability risk. Given the mass of missed dividends piling up elsewhere, this sudden loss of income is going to be yet another problem.

[zho] 24/3/2020 14:45

Shell famously hasn’t cut dividend to shareholders since the second world war and, even with a global recession looming and the price of a barrel of Brent at $30, management still isn’t ready to throw in the towel on a payment that cost $15bn last year.

Monday’s statement on measures “to reinforce business resilience and financial strength” was filled with cuts to capital spending and operating costs plus a halt to share buybacks. None of that is surprising given that Shell’s financial plans had been based on oil being about $65 a barrel. Yet the dividend, it seems, will be defended until all other options are exhausted.

The fight seems doomed to end in defeat, however, which is why Shell’s shares stand at their lowest level since the mid-1990s. The 14% notional dividend yield signals the market’s view that a cut is inevitable.

This prospect will be terrifying to many income-seeking pension funds. They were sure of Shell. Even a halved dividend will have been mentally filed as a low-probability risk. Given the mass of missed dividends piling up elsewhere, this sudden loss of income is going to be yet another problem.

www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2020/mar/23/coronavirus-rail-franchising-has-hit-the-buffers-the-question-is-what-replaces-it

[pvi1] 24/3/2020 14:44

I haven't. I've lost 10s of thousands. But I'm sure this will plummet again as the world economies continue to shut down

[waldron] 24/3/2020 14:34

YOU DONE WELL MY SON




pvi1
24 Mar '20 - 14:31 - 11844 of 11844
0 1 0
That's me sold at 12.50. I'll buy back in if it goes below 9 quid again

[pvi1] 24/3/2020 14:31

That's me sold at 12.50. I'll buy back in if it goes below 9 quid again

[waldron] 24/3/2020 14:00

Dow surges 1,300 points, rebounds from three-year low, on hope a coronavirus rescue bill is close
Published Mon, Mar 23 20206:04 PM EDTUpdated 14 min ago
Fred Imbert
@foimbert
Thomas Franck
@tomwfranck

[waldron] 24/3/2020 13:32

Energy names poised to rally as crude prices claw higher
Mar. 24, 2020 8:08 AM ET|About: Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Pre-market action in the Big Oil names indicate big gains when trading opens, as crude oil prices surge on hopes the U.S. will soon reach a deal on a $2T coronavirus aid package that could help support oil demand.

April WTI crude +5.1% to $24.56/bbl; May Brent +3.9% to $28.08/bbl.

"Oil is clawing its way higher, mainly on the back of the weaker dollar that stemmed from the Fed's unprecedented measures," says OANDA's Edward Moya, but "crude volatility will remain high and traders should not be surprised if this rally eventually gets faded."

[sogoesit] 24/3/2020 13:32

Added dividend plus some at $28.80
Upside about $37 / Downside $20

[waldron] 24/3/2020 12:53

PERHAPS INDIA AND OTHERS ARE STOCKING UP DUE TO LOW PRICES

ALIAS THE STRATEGIC OIL RESERVE SYNDROME




bo90
24 Mar '20 - 12:44 - 11837 of 11839
0 0 0
only 36 hours ago an expert on bloomberg was stating that oil price has further to fall. production relentless and demand collapsing. another dip must be on the cards
p0pper
24 Mar '20 - 12:46 - 11838 of 11839
0 0 0
bo90, I couldn't agree more, I cannot understand why oil is so (relatively) so strong, must hit the skids soon.

[p0pper] 24/3/2020 12:46

bo90, I couldn't agree more, I cannot understand why oil is so (relatively) so strong, must hit the skids soon.

[bo90] 24/3/2020 12:44

only 36 hours ago an expert on bloomberg was stating that oil price has further to fall. production relentless and demand collapsing. another dip must be on the cards

[plentymorefish] 24/3/2020 10:39

You should have bought more than £10 worth......after dealing costs you'll be left nursing a loss!....

[montyhedge] 24/3/2020 10:34

Thank goodness purchased 998p yesterday, don't think I take profit. Like the fact cancel buybacks, they can give money direct to shareholders, let them decide what to do with the dosh.I do think possible 50% cut, but what a yield.

[heialex1] 24/3/2020 10:31

Depends on their motivation. They might see shale at their weakest at the moment and try and crush them.But.... as the US is in the bailout mood, question whether the shale producers now have a backer with deeper pockets than the Saudis.

[poikka] 24/3/2020 10:29

Not much point in SA flooding the market, if no-one's buying the stuff - or is my logic unsound?

[the grumpy old men] 24/3/2020 10:13

All the best fella

that must have hurt FJ

GOOD LUCK

[fjgooner] 24/3/2020 10:06

What a great move up for RDSB ... and a most welcome relief.

I expect to regret this, but I have unloaded all of my Shell holdings this morning.

After many years of holding and building this portfolio, it feels very strange.

For me, watching TV coverage last night, the lockdown in India is the final straw in near-term crude demand. The prospect of the Saudis and Russians starting to flood the crude market from next week is too much further downside risk for my liking.

The next few weeks are so filled with uncertainty - taking one cowardly (and massively loss-making) decision allows me to forget about markets for a while and concentrate on the health issues of my family and friends in the weeks ahead.

I hope to be invested back in Shell once we have more line of sight to the end of the Covid-19 nightmare.

Best of luck to all and keep well.

FJ

[the grumpy old men] 24/3/2020 10:00

Markets
Dow futures rise nearly 900 points as Senate haggles over virus bill
Published Mon, Mar 23 20206:04 PM EDTUpdated 36 min ago
Thomas Franck
@tomwfranck