Royal Bank Of Scotland Share Discussion Threads

[leedskier] 19/2/2018 10:51

NY closed today (ditto China overnight)

George Washington's Birthday. February 19. Monday.

[leedskier] 19/2/2018 10:49

Consumer goods giant Reckitt Benckiser drags down the FTSE 100 after suffering worst year for sales ever

[leedskier] 19/2/2018 08:58

It was far cheaper back in the 1940's and 1950's, when my dad, between operational tours, was a Royal Air Force Qualified Flying Instructor.

These numbers are from the NAO in 2000.

"the Department’s costing systems do not readily identify the costs of pilot training and the National Audit Office analysed the available data to show the indicative costs. They estimated the overall cost of initial pilot training in 1998-99 to be some £280 million, with operational training an additional cost. Fast jet training is the most expensive type of training. It costs some £3.8 million to train a fast jet pilot prior to operational training, with a further £1.9 million for the cost of an operational training course. The cost of training flying instructors was the largest single component making up 30 per cent of cost."



Now about the costs of these Uni arts degrees ....?!?

[chinese investor] 19/2/2018 07:47

An action group representing The Royal Bank of Scotland PLC shareholders has denied claims from a litigation funder suing for nearly £15 million ($20.4 million) from the £200 million settlement the group reached over a class action against the bank.

Vannin Capital PCC filed its suit in mid-December, claiming that it had signed a pair of agreements with the action group and its former counsel (Bird & Bird) in 2013 that entitled it to £14 million in premiums plus interest from the settlement.

[leedskier] 19/2/2018 06:18

(The Scots with free higher education can look away now, none of this affects you)

In an interesting volte-face in Tory policy, we are now informed that a University education is bad for (most of) you.

So is the post brexit downsizing of Britain into a third world country to begin with higher education?

[smurfy2001] 18/2/2018 23:58

Q1 £713m (£259m)
Q2 £1,238m (£680m)
Q3 £871m (£392m)

To date pre-tax profit is £2,822m and attributable profit £1,331m

They don't have allot in the pot if they do indeed make a provision in final quarter.

[polar fox] 18/2/2018 15:03

So that we begin Results week with all useful facts at our fingertips, there has been a lot of media stuff on the internet following Rachel Brand's resignation ten days ago. For example, she leaves this week, leaving a significant vacancy in the No.3 position and making the understaffing much worse.

I've cut the following from CNBC - it adds some detail to the understaffing picture:

"Sources told NBC that Brand's job change followed a lengthy period of feeling unsupported in her role. As far back as the fall, she expressed worries to friends about her proximity to the looming Russia investigation, NBC's sources said. Key vacancies in the Justice Department, unfilled more than one year into the Trump administration, exacerbated Brand's discontentment in her position.

About a third of the 13 divisions in Brand's purview, including the civil rights and civil divisions, remain vacant, according to NBC."
unquote

My view of the recent Sky article, reporting the Treasury's intervention with US officials to move the DoJ fine along, is that it probably won't make much difference, as I posted. You just have to look at the short lived share price spike. Blink and you missed it. Largely a smoke and mirrors spin operation by the Treasury, IMO.

So what is realistic timing for a settlement, given everything we know? Q1? - no more than 10% probability. Q2? - 50/50 seems reasonable. H2? - obviously, as time passes, the probability of a settlement should increase.

So I'll be reading Friday's RNS to see what it says about the fine that changes the probabilities and deciding whether I believe anything it may say on the matter.

[smurfy2001] 18/2/2018 12:49

I don't read "The Scottish Sun" but this amused me (and yeah i'd be disappointed also).

BANKER RAGE RBS staff blast Nats MP Ian Blackford for ‘saving’ branches from the axe as he’s scuppered their bumper payoffs

[smurfy2001] 18/2/2018 12:07

RBS looks to be in the money – but looming fine may put paid to that

Another eight years of attributable losses followed as more bad debts, restructuring charges and regulatory fines took their toll. But 2018 looks like being the year the losses end.

The news isn’t as good as it looks. Most analysts, and the bank itself, were expecting a multibillion-dollar fine in the US before the end of 2017 but no settlement was reached. That penalty will have to be paid, and it could be big enough to send RBS back to a loss in 2018.

Oddly, most City brokers haven’t updated their forecasts so the average estimate is for a fine of about £2bn and a loss of £592m, even though the year ended with no fine.

[smurfy2001] 18/2/2018 11:40

RBS boss Ross McEwan is in line for around £3.2 million – comprising just under £1 million in long-term incentives to add to the £2.3 million he earns through his pay, share awards and benefits. The banks’ results will reveal losses on Carillion, which collapsed last month.

[polar fox] 18/2/2018 11:36

I tried to read that Scotsman piece, but couldn't because of my AdBlocker. It's certainly more orthodox in its approach, with a further modest loss for last year. So things aren't quite as clear cut as the STimes implied.

[smurfy2001] 18/2/2018 11:03

Here's another take:

Tenth year of losses looms for troubled RBS

Royal Bank of Scotland could unveil its tenth successive year of losses this week, depending on whether or not it is hit by a pending settlement with the US Department of Justice (DoJ) over sub-prime mis-lending. City consensus figures suggest an attributable loss for RBS of about £590 million for 2017, following a £6.95 billion loss the previous year and nearly £59bn of cumulative losses since 2008.

Conduct and litigation costs are expected to come in at £2.7bn for last year amid speculation that a deal may be imminent with the DoJ over claims the bank mis-sold risky mortgage-backed securities in the run-up to the financial crash. City expectations of the fine range from $3bn to $18bn. Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said: “RBS management have been careful to downplay the prospect that we could see the first annual profit in this particular decade, probably a wise course of action given the bank’s current woes. “The bank may choose to set aside further provision to help cushion the final settlement into next year’s numbers, with the fine rumoured to be in the region of $10bn.”

[smurfy2001] 18/2/2018 10:55

LOL i think most of us have been saying RBS will make a profit for what the first time in 10 years? Whether they decide to do so and take further provisions at the same time is the question? Will that then result in a loss or minuscule profit? If there's no provisions it could be a major price mover for the stock as l understand the government have been involved now in trying to speed up the progress on the RMBS fine.

I think there's serious money to be made here in the next year or two. Think Lloyds Bank. One is getting more exited by the day. I also consider Barclays a potential investment given the market cap between the two.

[chinese investor] 18/2/2018 09:57

Yes - very interesting !

"The Mail on Sunday has learned that a criminal complaint has been made against the RBS Shareholders Action Group.
The grievance was lodged with Action Fraud, part of the City of London Police, by one of the small investors.
Lawyers for the action group said it was unaware of the criminal complaint or anything to justify it."

[m1k3y1] 18/2/2018 09:50

Thanks CI.
I wonder who lodged the criminal complaint ?
About time that Signature and Manx arranged a claimants meeting to discuss everything I think

[chinese investor] 18/2/2018 09:01

Members of Parliament are demanding a probe into a debacle involving thousands of small investors who won a landmark £200 million payout from Royal Bank of Scotland last summer.

Eight months after the settlement was agreed, private shareholders have still not received a penny.

Law firm Signature Litigation, which is handling the case, blames the company formed to bring the claim – the RBS Shareholders Action Group – and its co-founder Gerard Walsh, who it described as a ‘proven fraudster.’

Norman Lamb, vice chairman of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Fair Business Banking, told The Mail on Sunday he would be asking Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee to investigate the fiasco.

He said: ‘Faced with these very serious allegations it’s clearly important they are thoroughly investigated.’

Lib Dem leader Vince Cable called for shareholders to be ‘recompensed immediately’.

The situation has prompted concerns about a separate company, the RBS GRG Business Action Group – set up more recently on behalf of small firms.

Irish businessman Walsh is a volunteer adviser to the GRG group.

The latter said it is unrelated to the action group for shareholders.

In 1997, a judge in the High Court of Ireland ruled that Mr Walsh was ‘guilty of fraudulent misrepresentation217; by posing as a Lamborghini dealer.

Separately, in 2014, the Jersey Royal Court described him as a ‘fraudsterR17;.

Sources close to Mr Walsh say he denies wrongdoing and add that he was neither a witness nor defendant in the Jersey case and was unable to contest the judgment.

The Mail on Sunday has learned that a criminal complaint has been made against the RBS Shareholders Action Group.

The grievance was lodged with Action Fraud, part of the City of London Police, by one of the small investors.

Lawyers for the action group said it was unaware of the criminal complaint or anything to justify it.

Signature Litigation has a number of concerns about the action group.

These include questions about a contract to pay £20 million to a company called Evalusafety.

The shareholder action group blames Signature Litigation for delays in making payouts to investors.

It has lodged a complaint about Signature with the Solicitors Regulation Authority.

The SRA said: ‘We are aware that a complaint has been made and will assess it before deciding on any next steps.’

A spokesman for Signature Litigation said: 'The Action Group company is not our client and has not shown us the complaint, which it has confirmed is not on behalf of any claimant.

'We view it as a bogus stunt from Mr Walsh and his associates who have long threatened to create negative publicity to support demands for some of our clients' money to be paid to them.

'He is a proven fraudster who has been the main force behind its activities and dealings with us.

'Should the SRA decide there is something to investigate, we will be happy to cooperate fully and purposefully, and to share our findings and serious concerns in relation to the Action Group company.'

Manx Capital, the lead claimant, added: ‘We and Signature Litigation would welcome and fully co-operate with any public inquiry into how around £200 million of taxpayers’ money intended for claimants could potentially have ended up in the hands of an unregulated claims management company such as this, operated by someone like Mr Walsh.’

[polar fox] 18/2/2018 08:45

If the bank does decide to declare a profit around this size, rather than provision some more for the fine, it would be useful to know why, but whether they tell us or anyone can find that out, we'll see in a few days perhaps.

[bigbigdave] 18/2/2018 07:12

RBS tipped to break into black for first time in a decade

[leedskier] 16/2/2018 16:53

The market is not interested in high beta plays, at least not this high beta play.

London seems to have shifted its focus to those shares offering a cheap yield.

[leedskier] 16/2/2018 15:12

No sooner predicted than it happens.