Royal Bank Of Scotland Share Discussion Threads

[ramco] 16/10/2013 14:57

The song remains the same this morning as all eyes remain fixed on Washington. The latest in the drama is the House did not have the votes to bring a new bill to the floor and thus, Senators Reid and McConnell are back to the negotiating table trying to hammer out a deal. The question, of course, is if any measure passed by the Senate can win approval in the House. Stock traders remain optimistic that a deal is close at hand as futures are pointing to a higher open on Wall Street.

[ramco] 16/10/2013 14:56

However, this time around the S&P has barely budged as the S&P shed just 4 percent from the most recent high. In short, it appears that traders have seen this movie before and know that the hero doesn't die in the end.

At the same time though, the bears have been suggesting that this time it may indeed be different. This time the Tea Party has cover. This time, the Democrats feel like they are #winning. And this time Boehner may have lost control. Thus, the glass-is-half-empty crowd suggests that investors may be entirely too complacent about what is about to happen.

In short, the bear camp reminds us that a default by the U.S. government would be insert-your-favorite-adjective-here.

But... As you might suspect, the team on the other sideline have a different view. While no one disputes the fact that the U.S. government defaulting on its debt would be a disaster of epic proportions for financial assets. However, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center, the real deadline for when the U.S. runs out of money isn't October 17. No, the BPC says the serious financial problems for Treasury start to show up between October 22 and November 1.

The BPC says that the U.S. Treasury currently has about $40 billion in total cash on hand and available extraordinary measures and declining fast. BPC notes that the U.S. faces debt rollovers of $120 billion on October 17 and $93 billion on October 24. Then there are $12 billion of Social Security benefits due on October 23, $6 billion on interest due on October 31, and over $55 billion in major payments is due on November 1.

Yet, it is also worth noting that the Quarterly Tax Revenues will start coming into the Treasury coffers shortly.

[ramco] 16/10/2013 14:55

Although the action on Capitol Hill appears has certainly been frenzied, the stock market continues to yawn. Yes, it is true that the intraday volatility did pick up in earnest on Tuesday as the algos pushed and pulled the major indices in a rather violent fashion after each and every headline, comment, and/or rumor out of Washington. But with the S&P 500 still just a stone's throw from its recent all-time high, traders don't appear to be worried.

The second takeaway is the fact that the current reaction in the S&P 500 is nothing compared to the last two times Congress acted like infants in front of the entire world. Note that the 2011 edition of the budget battle created a very negative reaction in stocks. In fact, the S&P 500 fell nearly 20 percent during the ordeal. However, to be fair, the crisis in Europe also lent a hand in terms of the overall bearish mood.

Then next the market reacted to all the drama and worry over the "sequester." While not nearly as nasty as the first go-round, the 2012 encounter with the games congressional leaders play still resulted in a correction of almost 8 percent on the S&P 500.

[ramco] 16/10/2013 14:51

Southeast Asia mixed on light volume
Southeast Asian markets trade mixed as investors look anxiously towards Washington.
Winners: Philippines (EPHE) +0.6%, Vietnam (VNM) +0.7%Laggards: Thailand (THD, TF, TTF) -0.6%, Indonesia (IDX, EIDO, IDXJ) -0.6%

[ramco] 16/10/2013 14:49

Bank of America beats as as provisions and expenses drop
Net interest income of $10.5B vs. $10.2B a year ago. Noninterest income of $11.3B is up from $10.5B. Total revenue of $21.7B compares to $20.6B last year. Provision for credit losses drops to $296M from $1.8B a year ago.Net interest margin of 2.44% is up 12 basis points from last year's Q3.
Noninterest expense of $16.4B is down from $17.5B a year ago - a comination of lower litigation expense, continued cutbacks on Legacy Assets and Servicing (LAS), and the bank's general continued trimming of expenses (i.e. headcount).
Mortgage slowdown: Consumer real estate services revenue of $1.6B compares to $2.1B in Q2, $3.1B a year ago.
Other consumer highlights: Mobile banking customers up 26% to 14M (lower costs moving forward), consumer credit card loss rate of 3.47% is lowest since Q1 2006.
Thundering herd update: Wealth management revenue of $4.4B up from $4.1B a year ago, with pre-tax margin of 25.5% up from 22.2%.
The trading slowdown hits BofA as well, with FICC revenue of $2B off 20% from a year ago.

PepsiCo beats by $0.07
PepsiCo (PEP): Q3 EPS of $1.24 beats by $0.07.Revenue of $16.91B misses by $0.12B. (PR)

[ramco] 16/10/2013 14:48

Another example...

CME boosting U.S. rate swap margins
Systemic risk: The CME tells customers it will boost margins on U.S. interest rate swaps by 12% over the next four days amid concern over fallout from a possible government debt default. This follows last week's move by The Hong Kong Exchange to raise collateral levels on certain short-term Treasurys.Interest rate swaps are the world's largest OTC asset class, with around $500B in daily notional volume, according to the FT.From the CME: "CME Clearing is closely monitoring the developments related to the US reaching its debt ceiling."

[ramco] 16/10/2013 14:47

Stock futures higher amid debt deal hopes, BofA climbs
Stocks appear poised for a rally, with S&P and Dow futures +0.7%, as traders remain optimistic about an agreement to raise the debt ceiling by tomorrow's so-called deadline; of course, there's still time for Congress to throw another monkey wrench into the process.
BofA +0.5% after beating earnings expectations by one cent on in-line revenue, and Intel -0.9% after reporting a bottom-line beat and guiding Q4 revenue near the lower end of analyst expectations.Fitch placed placed the U.S. AAA-rating under review for a downgrade late yesterday - deservedly so, some say, even assuming a debt ceiling deal is struck.

NB...;
The yield on 10-year Treasurys is inching higher, now up to 2.74%, and the three-month bill is leveling off at ~0.14%, but yields on short-term bills continue to climb as dealers avoid the sector and clearing banks refuse to finance paper that matures by the end of year - just in case.

[ramco] 16/10/2013 14:45

At the open
Dow +0.54% to 15251. S&P +0.56% to 1708. Nasdaq +0.57% to 3815.Treasurys: 30-year -0.11%. 10-yr -0.08%. 5-yr -0.07%.Commodities: Crude +0.15% to $101.36. Gold +0.44% to $1278.8.Currencies: Euro +0.17% vs. dollar. Yen +0.37%. Pound -0.15%.

[ramco] 16/10/2013 14:06

Yep....Dow +86, S&P +9.25....;

[leedskier] 16/10/2013 12:57

You see the thing is that unlike Western Europe where taxes rise to fund the ever increasing costs of a public welfare system and those other little essentials like schools and pensions, in the USA they do not. So the gap between income and expenditure rises year on year.

[leedskier] 16/10/2013 11:54

The worrying aspect of the US debt ceiling negotiations, is that Boehner does not seem able to control the right wing members of GOP in the House, most of whom seem to have gone off the reservation. The New York Times describing his attempts to do as 'herding cats'...

[smythy4] 16/10/2013 11:45

Huge buybacks coming imo...get in quick...

Frontier Mining Ltd

("Frontier" or the "Company")



Frontier share trading



Frontier Mining Ltd (AIM: FML), the AIM quoted copper exploration and development company focused on Kazakhstan, wishes to update the market on the trading volume of its shares over the last few months of 2011.



The Company has been advised by two of its significant shareholders, BMF International Ltd ("BMF") and Teratorn International Ltd ("Teratorn"), that last year they entered into a number of three year hypothecation loan agreements whereby their shares in Frontier were transferred to the lenders as collateral for the loans. The shares involved are approximately 77 million for BMF International Limited (representing approximately 4.1% of the issued share capital of the Company) and 98 million for Teratorn International Limited (representing approximately 5.3% of the issued share capital of the Company). Under the terms of the loan agreements, the lenders may trade the pledged shares in the market. However, as long as BMF and Teratorn adhere to the terms and conditions of the conditions of the loans, the lenders are obliged to return the full amount of the shares to BMF and Teratorn on the redemption of the loans at the end of the loan period.



The Company has undertaken an analysis of the share register and considers that, in the period from March to December 2011, the loan counterparties have sold over 160 million of the pledged shares in Frontier into the market. Frontier was at no time notified by the lenders of the share sales into the market.



The Company confirms that the other substantial shareholders and directors holdings remain as per previously notified to the market.

[leedskier] 16/10/2013 11:22

It was excellent football last night. I thought the new entrants to the team played very well and Gerrard and Rooney provided great leadership by example.

[leedskier] 16/10/2013 11:20

O/T Lance I have created that BB ...

[avatar333] 16/10/2013 10:31

Football related, Ramco. A little late rising this morning.

;

[ramco] 16/10/2013 09:57

Late start Avatar?...trust the endeavour occupying now hurdled was gainfully dealt with in your usual wise manner....;

[speedy] 16/10/2013 08:52

ramco - Ireland's current story is that the bailout has ended and that growth
will solve all the problems. (...again)

[ramco] 16/10/2013 08:39

Speedy saw that about Ireland's intentions however since the breaks were to incentivise foreign investment does it mean they want them out,,, don't think so..my experience is they will hand out elsewhere or come to some form of arrangement as opposed to what is on show...until of course it comes to light again....;

[ramco] 16/10/2013 08:39

Morning.... Dow +60, S&P +8 presently....;