Posted at 17/11/2024 18:55 by thegrafter The link I posted has now locked me out under a pay wall so here is the article: Turnaround Takes Off: Why Rolls-Royce Is A Buy For The Long HaulNov. 12, 2024 4:20 AM ETRolls-Royce Holdings plc (RYCEY) Stock, RYCEF StockRLLCF1 CommentMountain Valley Value Investments393 FollowersPlay(13min)Summary* Rolls-Royce's turnaround plan, led by new CEO Tufan Erginbilgic, focuses on cost reductions, operational efficiency, and increasing margins, showing early signs of success.* The company's civil aerospace division, benefiting from the post-pandemic air travel recovery, has significantly boosted operating profit and free cash flow.* Rolls-Royce trades at a discount to peers despite strong financial improvements, presenting a buying opportunity as the business continues to perform well.* Key risks include execution challenges and exposure to global air travel trends, but the company's current trajectory suggests a positive future.IntroductionThe CEO calling the company he manages a'burning platform' tends not to be a good sign. For Rolls-Royce (OTCPK:RYCEY) (OTCPK:RYCEF) it was merely a truthful assessment of the company from the new CEO at the beginning of 2023. After almost half a decade of losses, problems with its flagship Trent 1000 engine, lower margins than competitors, and the Covid pandemic, Rolls-Royce was in a bad way. Change was needed. This plan involved reforming its civil aerospace division, lifting margins from 2.5% in 2022 to a range of 15-17%, in line with rivals. With a plan to cut £400 million off the cost base, cutting 6% of its workforce, and with strong growth in post-pandemic air travel, the plan is beginning to bear fruit. In its most recent half-year results, operating profit was up 74% year on year, and free cash flow up 225%. Shareholders have been rewarded with the shares up 93% so far this year. This raises the question; can the shares go any higher?In this article, I want to explore in more detail the company's latest results, the turnaround plan, and explain why I believe Rolls-Royce has a positive future ahead. The Turnaround PlanOperating over three divisions: Civil Aerospace, Defence, and Power Systems, Rolls-Royce is a key supplier in the global aviation and power system industries. Its largest division, civil aerospace, accounting for over half the company's revenue, operates as a subscription service. Airlines pay service fees based on the engine's flying hours, locking in recurring revenues.Despite its long history, Rolls-Royce has faced multiple issues in recent years. It traditionally relied on selling aircraft engines at a loss to gain market share, making profits in servicing contracts. This, however, made the company heavily exposed to downturns such as the pandemic. Combined with costly issues such as problems with the company's flagship Trent 1000 engine, and operational inefficiency, the company struggled with profitability, with margins far lower than competitors. This all led to a new CEO, Tufan Erginbilgic, being brought in early 2023 who described the company he inherited a 'burning platform'. A turnaround was needed.Since taking over the company, Erginbilgic has implemented a turnaround focused on cost reductions, renegotiation of underperforming contracts, and improving operational efficiency. He immediately raised prices and set out a target to reach operating profits of £2 billion by 2027. By the end of 2023, operating profits increased 143% year over year to £1.6 billion, showing early signs the turnaround was working.A key part of this turnaround not only involved increasing prices, but also cutting jobs to streamline operations and reduce the bloated cost base. Within his first year of joining, 2,500 job cuts were announced, equivalent to 6% of the workforce. Procurement was reformed to leverage the company's size and reduce costs, with back office functions brought together. Unlike previous attempts, this turnaround appears to be working and should help Rolls-Royce improve its margins to be in line with competitors.Aiding this turnaround has also been the global recovery in air travel. As the world has exited the pandemic, global air travel has bounced back, putting an upward wind behind Rolls-Royce. More flying means more engine flying hours, which means more revenue from servicing contracts. Although some long-haul routes to Asia remain weak, cross-Atlantic travel has rebounded strongly.With the factors driving growth in air travel remaining intact; rising disposable incomes in emerging markets, increasing demand for international travel, and increased migration which encourages frequent visits home to family, this presents a long-term sustained growth opportunity. As more travel occurs, Rolls-Royce will continue to see servicing revenue increase, capitalizing on its installed base of engines.The ongoing recovery in air travel, combined with the company's turnaround plan focussing on operational efficiency and improved margins, sets the company up for a more stable and profitable future. Investors have already been rewarded with increased earnings and a rally in the share price. With the turnaround plan continuing to positively impact results, a target of £2 billion in operating income, and boosting operating margins, Rolls-Royce is looking the strongest it has in years.First Half Earnings and Q3 trading updateRolls-Royce released its results for the first half of 2024 in August, which reflected the significant turnaround the company is currently undertaking. Operating profit came in at £1.1 billion, up 74% year-on-year, driven by cost efficiency's helping drive operating margins up 4.4% to 14%.Improved profitability was observed across all business segments, but was driven largely by the civil aerospace division that represents over 50% of the business. Underlying revenue in this division rose 27% year-over-year, reaching £2.2 billion, driven by engine flying hours improving 22% as international air travel increased and a small increase in shop visits. This resulted in service revenue contributing 68% of the division's revenues, and overall operating margins rising 5.6% to reach 18%.Power systems, makers of propulsion systems and power generation systems, reported a 6% increase in revenue, reaching £1.8 billion, driven by growth in demand in the power generation and governmental categories, offsetting weakness in the marine and industrial categories. Commercial optimization, combined with cost efficiencies, pushed the operating margin up 3.3% to 10.3%. The order book reached £2.4 billion, increasing the order backlog by 11% to £4.6 billion, suggesting a strong pipeline for future sales.The defense segments saw an 18% increase in revenues to £2.2 billion, with operating margin increasing 1.9% to 15.5%. This was driven by a strong 84% growth in revenue from the submarine division. The order book remains healthy at £8.5 billion, but is down 7% from the previous year. I believe this fall in the order book is not a cause for concern, with recent indications the UK government will be increasing defense spending, which should aid Rolls-Royce as a major UK defense supplier.Free Cash flow reached £1.2 billion in the first half, up 225% year-over-year, driven by reduced interest rate costs, and improvements in working capital. Net debt declined to £822 million, the lowest level in over five years, placing the company on a solid future footing with a strong balance sheet.More recently, Rolls-Royce released atrading update for the third quarter, announcing that their guidance remains unchanged for an operating profit of £2.1-2.3 billion and free cash flow of between £2.1 billion and £2.2 billion. In the 10 months to the end of October, the civil aerospace division has continued to see strong demand, with large engine flying hours reaching 102% of their 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Recently, the company has received further engine orders for 60 Trent 1000 engines from Cathay Pacific and in September was named as the preferred supplier for the construction of Small Modular Reactors by the Government of the Czech Republic.Overall, Rolls-Royce is displaying strong performance across all its divisions in both revenue growth and operating margins. The company has now reinstated the dividend at 30% of after tax profit, highlighting management's confidence in the business.ValuationRolls-Royce's ongoing turnaround has been reflected in its improving financial metrics and positive future earnings guidance, with the market taking note sending the shares significantly higher over the past year. That raises the question, is the company still a buy at this price?To determine whether the stock is fairly valued, I undertook a comparison to its peers: Safran (OTCPK:SAFRF), General Electric (GE), and MTU Aero Engines (OTCPK:MTUAF), all fellow industrial companies offering similar products to Rolls-Royce. Given the large difference in cash and debt levels, a direct comparison of earnings multiples will not suffice, and I instead use an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple. I also use a trailing free cash flow measure.Created by the author using data from Seeking AlphaWhen compared to its peers, we see that Rolls-Royce trades at a lower average multiple. On EV/EBITDA it has the second-lowest multiple, whilst on a price to free cash flow metric it has the lowest. This comes despite the recent strong improvements in operating profit and free cash flow, which are set to rise further in the coming years.With management's strong performance so far, and the strong earnings guidance, combined with the recent recovery in air travel, Rolls-Royce has a clear path to improved profits in the future. Despite the recent rise in the share price, it still trades at a discount to peers, which, I believe, will close in future years as the business continues to perform. As such, I give the shares a buy rating.RisksAs with any investment, it doesn't come without some risks. I believe there are two main risks that are important to consider.Firstly, execution risks. Many companies have attempted to turnaround with a change in strategy and failed. Rolls-Royce is no exception; it has a long history of under-delivering on restructuring and financial targets. By my count, this is the fifth major restructuring in 25 years following cost-cutting and restructuring in 2001, 2015, 2018, and 2020. Although it looks positive so far, the company's success will depend on strict cost optimization and streamlining. If this turnaround fails, Rolls-Royce may return to being the 'burning platform', that the new CEO inherited.With the company's reliance on its civil aerospace business, the company is heavily exposed to global air travel trends. Although flying has largely recovered or exceeded pre-pandemic levels, weakness remains on some long-haul routes, particularly to and from Asia, impacting service income. Additionally, the company remains heavily exposed to the economic cycle, with prolonged economic uncertainty often leading to reductions in demand for air travel. With service income tied to engine usage hours, a reduction in air travel would result in a fall in revenue.ConclusionRolls-Royce has faced multiple challenges over the past few years, from the covid pandemic to issues with its Trent-1000 engine, and low operating margins compared to peers. With new management in charge, the business appears to be undergoing a transformation by streamlining operating costs and boosting income from servicing. Combined with the growth in air travel following the Covid-19 pandemic, the company appears in a much stronger position, with operating income up 74% and operating margins reaching 14%. Despite this turnaround, the company still trades at a discount to peers, which, I believe, is unjustified given the strong performance. As such, I assign the shares a buy rating.
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