Robinson Share Discussion Threads

[arthur_lame_stocks] 31/5/2023 06:27

That's a start I suppose. Will they be able to offload the rest of the surplus property before the market crashes I wonder?

[castleford tiger] 06/4/2023 21:51

The 17500 is me moving stock into ISA

[castleford tiger] 30/3/2023 17:34

the business margins will recover.

Doing ok for me
tiger

[charo] 30/3/2023 16:49

Agreed.so sell all property pay of debt add back interest saved you get on today's results pbt of say £600kon sales of £50 million. Operationally this is a disaster but prop up up by property values. Typical 3/4 th gen company.Absent owners,rentiers,overpaid managers,no skin in game.
But go for it.

[castleford tiger] 30/3/2023 13:52

After undertaking a professional independent valuation, the fair value of the surplus properties is now estimated to be GBP8.1m. The current net book value is GBP2.8m

You said..............

Assets are worth what they earn.

How about the good news Charo? They are worth 3x book value

Tiger

[charo] 30/3/2023 13:44

Add back intangibles deduct property profit £1 million on £50million sales.Dividend 5ak3s all cash from ops.

[value hound] 30/3/2023 06:42

Yes, very encouraging, particularly on property revaluation. I also come out around 150pps FWIW.

[baner] 30/3/2023 06:40

Looking rather good. Almost debt free once remaining properties are sold. Strong cash flow going forward. Should reach £3-4m of ebit in 2 years. Little downside, could well go to 150p in a year.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 29/3/2023 15:14

Results tomorrow.

[charo] 13/2/2023 15:17

Reality will be painfull.

[charo] 09/2/2023 22:09

If power costs fall then customers will seek price reductions.

[value hound] 08/2/2023 07:56

I agree with the above two posts Last time I looked, I came out around a fair value of c.140p, i.e. not to sell, necessarily, but to review again if that price is reached, and to happily enjoy tne divis until thst point.

It's conceivable that Simon T could tip it with his Bargain Shares 2023 tomorrow I suppose.

[castleford tiger] 08/2/2023 07:14

ALS

Cannot disagree with any of that furthermore Energy prices are falling fast.

Electricity quoted 70/90p a kwh is now in the 40`s and falling.

It might settle high 20`s or low 30`s which would be a huge saving going forward.

Like you we wait for better times in the core business but the dividend gives us a return whilst we wait.
I have £1.50 penciled in this year

tiger

[arthur_lame_stocks] 07/2/2023 19:50

I think despite the recent rise in the share price these are worth hanging on to. It looks to me like they're going to revalue their properties and hopefully this will produce a good uplift with the results thus further widening the gap between mkt cap and NTAV. Also this year the pension escrow money should be released and they may make a further sale of some of that surplus property, hopefully at a profit to book with planning.

OK so trading in the core packaging business may be average but I can see a number of things which may help to increase the price this year and if that dividend is safe then we get a reasonable yield as well.

[castleford tiger] 25/1/2023 17:24

MEANWHILE THE PRICE keeps going up.
tiger

[charo] 25/1/2023 17:11

In the meanwhile operations drift.Management with no skin in game peel off profits .

[charo] 25/1/2023 17:11

In the meanwhile operations drift.Management with no skin in game peel off profits .

[baner] 25/1/2023 09:36

There should be a £3m book profit from the elimination of the escrow account, as R most likely made a provision (over time) when this was set up. This will thus further increase the gap between the share price and the NAV.

[ardee] 24/1/2023 18:48

The escrow funds are already on loan to the company so there will be no L pact on Bank debt.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 24/1/2023 18:43

I assume releasing the escrow money will reduce net debt. The actual cash figure won't increase much but the corresponding liability will go down.

I wasn't too disappointed with today's update, it looks like they're going to recognise an uplift in the value of their property making the discount to TNAV even wider and the company is at least profitable in what is a difficult environment.

I'm going to continue holding and collecting that dividend whilst I wait for the price to rise closer to TNAV.

[charo] 24/1/2023 17:17

Assets are worth what they earn.

[ardee] 24/1/2023 15:17

A note out today from FinnCap.
The pension escrow is £3.2M and as this is already deployed in the business the end result will be a book keeping adjustment. A worrying aspect of the brokers note is capex of £4.4 m next year. This follows from substantial capex in the past if I remember rightly. It is a substantial investment for a company capitalised at £15M. There is a need to be more aggressive on both sales and pricing.

[1tx] 24/1/2023 10:01

I assume we still have the couple of million held in the escrow account,currently lent back to the company, post the pension buy out.This was not part of the actual pension fund.Otherwise I thought the update was reasonable in a very difficult market with huge price pressures which take time to pass on.

[castleford tiger] 24/1/2023 09:19

Broker forecast adjusted pbt for 2023 is £1.3 mill so market cap should be circa £10 mill.

Whilst I understand the logic there you have to look at NAV which is £20m exc intangibles and goodwill.

Then add the trading part to that.

So I see 20m nav plus the value of the business £13m,

total 33 million about 200p a share

tiger

[castleford tiger] 24/1/2023 09:03

Hi Charo

Is there a new note out today please/
Tiger