Rio Tinto Share Discussion Threads

[robrah] 27/4/2017 15:31

Supply is flooding out the market now as apposed to 2011. Just take Vale sd11 projects output and full capacity. Plus gbp is breaking to the upside .1.30 plus soon . Ore prices did not sustainable the up move and now look headed down. Q1 good but no promises for the remaining 3. I think it will breach 30 today and if 30 becoming resistance this is tanking further . No amount of VIX can help . It is a rio sector based problem . @christh Did your brokers tell you the risks .

[nasdaqpat] 27/4/2017 13:40

FWIW, Iron Ore traded @ $67mt yesterday, up about 1.5% from Tuesday's $66mt. Its record low was $37mt in Dec 2015 as opposed to record high of $191.9mt during 2011. I think it reached about $93mt during Q1 this year.

[robrah] 27/4/2017 13:20

Gbp breaking out .

[robrah] 27/4/2017 09:39

Christh this is looking more and more ominous day by day. Threatening to break 30Dint u say this is power up to 40 quid soon ??

[nasdaqpat] 26/4/2017 15:26

Interesting article that, Robrah...Miners, especially Iron Ore producers, clearly not a sector to be invested in going forward.

Thx idioterna.

[idioterna] 26/4/2017 14:47

nasdaqpat, re:post 54700; I use VIXY because it's a fast and easy way to insurance with no risk of a margin call. I purchased it at $13 and traded out at $16 in the space of 10 days. I call that good insurance.

I'm into VIXY again at these lows because, precisely as everybody points out, it's the general market crash I'm insuring against. Nuclear war should cause volatility, but that's up to the Goldman's monkey of course.

On top of all that I'm finding the VIX at these lows for so long (despite the obvious political chaos around us), to be somewhat suspect, artificial even. It's bound to go boom eventually, but I don't want to risk a margin call.

[robrah] 26/4/2017 12:06

As per christh rio is flying today

[nasdaqpat] 25/4/2017 17:03

Robrah, don't forget that RIO went up 138.8% between 20 Jan 2016 (1557p) and 13 Feb 2017 (3718.5p)...Miners were the strongest sector in that timeframe.

[robrah] 25/4/2017 16:18

VIX only protects if the whole market goes down. But if rio or the ore sector goes down. It won't be much help. Most of last year index went up the miners lagged .

[nasdaqpat] 25/4/2017 16:04

I think most of us find it hard enough as it is without dabbling in the mysterious world of the Volatility Index but I'm sure in experienced hands such as yours, idioterna, it could work well.

I've often wanted to keep an eye on the VIX so I've included AMEX:VIXY in my main monitor. Is that the vehicle you were suggesting and why that one as opposed to the various other ways to trade the VIX?

[idioterna] 25/4/2017 13:46

Despite all, it does appear that RIO has held the $40 support rather well. It's teetering on the brink but it's definitely still there. Given that I'm a bear with a tendency to long VIX prior to the upcoming nuclear strike, I still hold shares in RIO because I have a feeling the rebound will be too fast and hard to play with, but I can see $25 as a good possibility, but it might only be for a few hours. IMHO hold the shares and buy VIXY for insurance. It's going to be very hard to connect to internet let alone trade shares when this one goes down.

[nasdaqpat] 25/4/2017 11:47

Yes, it was worth reading the article (if no link was available) but, personally, I would prefer to see such items on the other thread and leave this one for more meaningful discussion. LOL!

[ian davenport] 25/4/2017 11:42

thank you Chris - trouble is we knew all that in November, Ok , we didn't know that the Oz finance minister agreed and would publically state it, and his views on downplaying a trade war do have some relevance.

[christh] 25/4/2017 10:57

Ian,
here it is.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump's Infrastructure Plan a Boon for Iron Ore, Cormann Says
by Enda Curran
23 April 2017, 00:07 BST


U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to upgrade the nation’s roads, ports and bridges will drive demand for steel and support iron ore prices, Australia’s Finance Minister Mathias Cormann said.

“The U.S. and the Trump administration has put out a very ambitious infrastructure investment program" and the steel will have to come from somewhere, Cormann said in an interview in Washington. "So global demand for steel, we believe, will continue to require significant exports of Australian iron ore.”
The price of iron ore has slumped almost 30 percent since Chinese Premier Li Keqiang last month signaled plans to cut his nation’s steel capacity. The world’s No. 2 economy is Australia’s biggest trading partner and iron ore exports account for more than 3 percent of Australia’s gross domestic product.

Iron ore has had a volatile 18 months. It slumped to a low of just over $38 in December 2015 then steadily rebounded until it reached a peak of just under $95 in February this year before retreating back to around $65.

Cormann played down fears that Trump would upend the global economy by unleashing a wave of punishing tariffs or erecting other barriers in an effort to shrink the nation’s trade deficit.

“It’s early days in terms of the U.S. administration,̶1; he said. “Freer, more open trade helps to lift living standards. It helps domestic business to get access to markets around the world and it helps consumers get access to competitively priced, higher-quality products.”
New Growth Cycle

Global finance ministers and central bank governors gathered in Washington this week for the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings where the mood was upbeat.

“Across the world the global economic outlook is improving," Cormann said. "We hope that this is the beginning of a new growth cycle."

For the domestic economy, Cormann played down fears that the nation’s two biggest cities are experiencing a property bubble. Strong demand is driving house price gains and the government is working on measures to boost supply, Cormann said.

"We are considering a range of options on how we can appropriately provide incentives and working with the states to provide the appropriate avenues to increase supply," he said. Further details will be unveiled in the nation’s annual budget set to be announced in May.

[nasdaqpat] 25/4/2017 10:33

This thread needs a significant dose of reality, it seems to me!

BTW, our average on RIO is currently a not too clever 3336p.

The reason its so high is because we cashed out last November @ 3097.5p against an average holding of 2388.75p (initially 2171p in Feb 2016 but Added & Reduced subsequently banking profits en route).

However, we wanted the market (and particularly Miners) down because we started to become cash rich and re-bought initially at the inflated price of 3661.7p in Feb...its called a reverse hedge in my book!

[robrah] 25/4/2017 10:16

Broken logic and broken link

[christh] 25/4/2017 10:12

Ian,
most likely we'll see a good rise as per article from Bloomberg.

Trump's Infrastructure Plan a Boon for Iron Ore, Cormann Says

[nasdaqpat] 25/4/2017 09:43

Yes, you could well be right, Robrah, but not if FTSE is on the gallop again.

Even if RIO does drop to c2500p over the summer/early autumn, it wouldn't really cause us a great deal of concern as it represents only about 1.5% of our portfolio and we effectively have about 50% of our portfolio in cash so averaging down incrementally would eliminate our losses pdq when the time is right.

[robrah] 25/4/2017 09:13

Lol christh . You have now started providing broken bullish links ?lol Seriously lolU know u can still post old and outdated links if you can't find new bullish material