Rift Oil Share Discussion Threads

[petercrosby] 21/3/2014 21:15

Some really informative stuff here.

I would recommend you all take a look at CEY. Quarter results are out on Monday and next hearing on the court case is Tuesday another adjournment is expected, but its possible that it may be adjourned until later in the day or the next day before giving a verdict. A positive outcome for CEY will will see the share price go to at least £1 IMO

Note we could just as easily get another 6 week adjournment!

Take a look at the recent investor presentation here:

hxxp://www.centamin.com/centamin/investors/presentations-webcasts

[bigdog5] 21/3/2014 19:02

LR2, thanks for the new post from investor48

Have a look at his that I mentioned, post 34835

[offerman] 21/3/2014 15:23

Hi LR2, thanks for the compliment:

I did mention Algeria likely to be more

"-Algeria- 2.1TCFg Recoverable on over 10TCF discovery. ( more than 2.1tcf recoverable most likely double this as stated by Directors but 2.1 state to meet 15 year contractual reasons. 181MB liquids to."


Have a nice weekend one `n all.

[cashandcard] 21/3/2014 14:18

Thanks guys, I will take a look over the weekend.

Cash

[lr2] 21/3/2014 13:39

A fine synopsis from Offerman above.

Would just like to add that 2.1TCF recoverable is the official figure given to Algerian authorities but it is widely assumed that at least 4.1TCF can and will be achieved in the fullness of time.

[offerman] 21/3/2014 13:31

Hi Cash, You are correct about PCI in Algeria and Italy.
I`ll keep it brief as possible for you.

-Algeria- 2.1TCFg Recoverable on over 10TCF discovery. ( more than 2.1tcf recoverable most likely double this as stated by Directors but 2.1 state to meet 15 year contractual reasons. 181MB liquids to.
18.37% F.O to ENEL for 130m$ for 18% (slightly better back in the day when you remeber them when they farmed out 50% to Iberdoal for 55m$. Iberdola pulled out due to financial crisis and tightened their belts worldwide.(Blessing for PCI as was then able to F.O after increasing field discovery and better F.O conditions)
Fairly recent 18.37% F.O to India Oil and Gas BUT Sonatrach (Algeria state owned company) used their card to take the percentage instead showing how valuable the field is to them by paying 183m$.

PCI now retains 38% of the filed and is operator.

Reverse T.O of Scottish company MRS: Melrose Resources ( think for 150m$
Melrose produce O&G in Egypt and Bulgaria , net 60M$ producing P.A to pci now.
Supplies will dwindle from current 22 000 BOPD over the new few years BUT this has allowed a 500M$ loan facility from HSBC to further help for capex for Algeria.

Egypt owed 125m$ to pci but has been paying off a large portion of this recently down to 80M$.

Exciting prospects to drill soon in Romania, first well uncovered double depth empty resovoir but linked in to a migratory system.


ITALY: well all i can say there is its ITALY, (I.E Nothing Happens) not since BP disater in Mexico.

New Greek Licence

Increased Egypt acreage by 300% for exploration.

Future acquisitions to come.

Shaikan and Dinarta supposedly on trend with SHaikan GKP. ( think they meant terrain on trend so watch this space....)

Anyway enough of that i`ll leave it up to you to do some more research and good luck if you decide to joing the potential PCI express.

[cashandcard] 21/3/2014 12:29

Hi offerman,

I was in GKP long before Shaikan discovery and backed them until end of 2010 when I sold out. There oil is there - getting to realise full value for it is an ongoing issue due to politics. Prior to the discovery - few even bothered to follow what was happening in that region.

I will take a look at PCI, happen to remember them from a different age being involved in Algeria and Italy. My only concern with Kurdy oilers now is the politics, it is keeping a lid on these companies - they cannot realise their true potential until that changes.

The Atlantic transform margin plays, in my opinion, are better investments cases than Kurdy oilers. GKP has shown the limits to any investment in Kurdistan. I am more excited about potential play-openers in more stable regions. West Africa (LEK), Namibia (TRP) and Paraguay (PPC) are perfect in that regard.

Cash

[offerman] 21/3/2014 11:27

Hi CC, Nice to hear from you and glad you are doing ok.

Kea would of been a good punt at 0.88p although i suspect buying in would of been set a tad higher.

I will take a look at PPC.

Trp i agree is a gamble but massive if it comes in with projected OIP figures.
I have been in and out of them a few times recently but currently out as made great % profit and reinvested that as a top up to my already nearly fully investment in PCI which has exciting Kurdistan Results in the next few weeks . They have found something as will be doing tests, it isn`t a duster but nor is it commercial yet until tested. Exciting times there to CC if you are interested.

I will be taking another small holding soon in TRP for the opunt if PCI comes good and i can realise a few pennies from that to invest elsewhere.

For me the reall interest currently is PCI, then GKP and TRP with my eyes on KEA it it were to fall down again(F.O expected but for how much we`ll see.)

[cashandcard] 21/3/2014 11:18

Hi There Rifters,

Been some time since we last conversed - I see IGS's KEA spiked a little in the last few days - but its baby steps back towards its original high of 30p - Lol!

check out Solg for Copper/Gold and PPC for oil&gas if you get time. Both look very exciting and have activity ongoing or about to get underway.

I may also take a small punt on TRP for their upcoming well. Five targets in their WW1 well being operated by Repsol. I don't believe in TRP as an investment. However, the Mastrictian target has a very strong DHI response - reckon there will atleast be Gas with NGL's or Gas-Condensate at that target zone.

Let me know what you think folks.

Cash

[offerman] 21/3/2014 11:02

Bloody Hell What a good post by Investor48, I knew some of what he posted but he has added more to this and the way he lays it out is very very proffesional.


Like i said i bailed at £1.27 recently from GKP after investing at £1.22(after myinvestment it dropped to £1.04 before rising again and falling and i sold on the next rise.

I missed the 86p as was sudden due to the prospectus RNS.

However i`m currently all invested in PCI and i`m confident something positive will happen with Its Kurdy licences. If i can make a decent rise on PCI some of that will be bailing to GKP but will hold majority in PCI ready for Dinarta which is a massive acreage prospect, far large (Arcreage wise than SHakrok). So is Shakrok delivers then i`ll take new positions with GKP. After that i`ll watch and wait for any new moves.

Personally i don`t think T.K is up to the task and a major would be best suited. Why that hasn`t happened yet is beyond me and its just a snippet for a major to buy out GKP. So many majors and no Approach, what are they waiting for? SHaikan 7 results?

[lr2] 21/3/2014 02:33

BD5, this just posted from investor48.

Author investor48
Date posted today 01:55
Subject Re: 186p - 86p Test of Sanity
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 6 times.


Message
Hello Everyone,

It looks like a deja vu all over again for me!Afren suffered the same fate in early 2009,the share price then had been in a consolidation mode for about 4-6weeks at circa 20p plus and then it plunged to 13p in about 6-7 trading days!Then within a few trading days the share price moved back up above 20p and consolidated for weeks at around 40p.Afren then moved to the main board listing a few months later.Afren raised straight bonds and it's coupon was double digit.

GKP was on the downtrend since the year started and was consolidating for about 3-4weeks until the CPR, a report that was mandatory for GKP to move to the main board listing.Since then, the share price has plunged to a low of 86p last night.In about 7trading days we have seen the share price plunged from 144p to 86p,all because of a main board listing!!Yes the CPR gave GKP a OIP of 9.2billion barrels versus DGA's OIP of 13.5billion barrels and the downward trend since the beginning of the year from 180p to 140p,many would have thought that the market had discounted this.But the market choose to punish it again when the CPR was released last thursday and punished it again last night because of the prospectus.

At 100p,without any further dilution as most of the remaining options are at 175p and the CB's at 275p GKP is valued at 890million pounds or circa USD 1.5billion currently.

Tomorrow if a major takes over GKP,based on the CPR the 2P resource is valued at USD1billion ,based on a NPV of 10percent,giving it a value of USD6.16 per barrel.A major would be able to fund the CAPEX required for PF-3 and PF-4 and immediately the 2C resource would migrate to 2P,except that at this stage as the CPR states, no value was given per barrel for the 2C resource because it would need to know the value of the CAPEX.

If the 2C resource migrates to 2P,GKP's 2P resource would be circa 550million barrels.At this stage I would give the value of the 2C resource using the same discount rate, at say USD5 per barrel,giving it a discount of nearly 20percent from the 2P value of USD6.16 per barrel.

If one adds up the value it would give us circa Usd 2.9biilion,the moment a Major or NOC takes over GKP and finalise the CAPEX to take GKP's production to 90K barrels per day.

Hence,without any further appraisal in Shaikan,a Major or NOC could consolidate at least 550million barrels onto it's books.A 550million barrels reserves onto any major's books would require a Major to discover a new oilfield of at least a few billion barrels OIP,not easy to come by these days!!

As per the CPR,the there is no 2P resource given to Sheikh Adi only 2C which is 122million barrels.

What are the upside to the CPR which is extremely conservative:

1.As production of Shaikan moves to 150K,250K,etc barrels per day,difficult for GKP to do so,but certainly not for a Major or NOC,the 2P value will move up significanly.

2.A possible connectivity between SA and SH once SA-3 results are known and evaluated.

3.A retest of SH6 by carrying out a side track to reevaluate the OWC.

4.The CPR gave a 2C resource estimate for the whole of Bijeel and Bakman at 43million barrels!!No wonder MOL is furious,as the CPR which has nothing to do with MOL,may affect MOL indirectly if it chooses to do a corporate exercise!MOL has said many times the it's Kurdistan assets is a game changer for MOL.The AB block is already regarded as a prize asset for MOL and certainly the ERC assessment of AB has messed up MOL,big time,IMHO.

5.SH-7 if successful on a potential discovery at the Permain,would have costs GKP more to drill,but would be able to increase GKP's OIP in Shaikan and if it is light oil,this will indeed be a bonus.

What happened to the share price then?

1.Angry shareholders sold down.

2.PI's was forced out due to margins.

3.SP manipulated to create fear with a downward pressure as soon as the CPR and Prospectus RNS are released.

Even if one hates the management,the assets will not disappear.Most of us are invested in GKP because of it's prize asset in Shaikan and not in the current management.How long can TK hang on to his position?He may have support from the KRG,but this support will not be forever!!

In addition to above, the KRG announced yesterday that it will export 100K barrels per day as a gesture through SOMO,whilst negotiations are on going with the 2014 budget and sharing of oil revenues and payments.

It is very evident that Europe needs alternative supply of gas and oil,other than from Russia.It looks like the Obama Administration has finally woken up to realise that Kurdistan's gas and oil supplies are important to Europe and especially to Turkey.

Whilst GKP share price has been hammered,I wonder what the mangement of BP,Total,etc must be thinking if sanctions are going ahead with Russia??!!What about the oil companies listed that are exploring and producing oil in Russia.The Ukraine/Russia challenges will not go away soon,it will be here to stay for awhile,IMHO.

Please hang on to your shares,clearly, it is worth far more than 100p and even with the most conservative valuation by analysts as a result of the super conservative CPR,valuations range between 100p to 185p.The 100p valuation is by the analyst at Canacord that also happened to value TRP well above 200p,with no discovery of any oil or gas in sight as of now!

It will be volatile for the share price But for those that have been in GKP pre Shaikan discovery,will know that there was a share price placement at 9p before discovery of oil in Shaikan.Could this be a repeat of that scenario,if SA3 is provened to be connected to Shaikan and SH-7 springs a discovery of light oil in the Permain??!!

Good luck and best wishes to all

[lr2] 21/3/2014 00:17

I think I've got investor48 on my favourites list but I might have missed his most recent post as I can't recall it. I'll go try and find it now.

[lr2] 21/3/2014 00:00

BD5, agreed, the have displayed complete lack of respect to their current shareholders. Presumably they think it doesn't matter how we are treated as the company won't be around much longer.

[bigdog5] 20/3/2014 23:34

Did Talisman ever do anything about the gas that IGS (imo) gave away.

LR2 the BoD is all over the shop (imo) and it concerns me that it appears they think shareholders are so far down the food chain as to not matter a monkeys.

[lr2] 20/3/2014 11:02

PCI not even fully valued on Algeria alone. Everything else is thrown in for free. One day the markets will discover PCI.

[offerman] 20/3/2014 09:09

Memo to self , stop being such a bloody idiot and buy low sell high! be patient and hold PCI until we get success with drilbit and S.P (already major success with Algeria) Romania could be amazing , Kurdistan lets just wait and see.

[lr2] 19/3/2014 23:38

"memo to self. In future find an oil company that has no Political issues and has pipelines for export. Rather than none or through a jungle."
__________________________________________________________

Good luck with that.

[bigdog5] 19/3/2014 23:35

Its not the funds necessarily that concern. However who is it down to pay the back costs, Baghdad?

Ar you are talking profit, yes? Well I would look at gross income initially.

That's the point we're not in money trouble as far as I'm aware.

Takeover!! I wish I was confident even after 3 and 7.

I always thought IGS bigged it all up, have we found another ?

memo to self. In future find an oil company that has no Political issues and has pipelines for export. Rather than none or through a jungle.

[lr2] 19/3/2014 23:22

Hey, I'm being conservative. It's the word of the month don't you know.

Thanks for pointing out the back exploration costs and BIR's - not sure they will be coming GKP's way this year but they would certainly not need any more dosh for 2015 if the did.

Is $20 low? I thought it was around $20 dropping down to around $8 once historic capex was repaid. Also thought production started late December but could be wrong.

It was a broad brush attempt to see what kind of money trouble GKP might be in next year. Certainly not into the nitty gritty.

Is Bob attempting to say that capex for a block get repaid by production from that same block and the other blocks have only small planned expenditure right now. Not sure what he has said. I do a lot of skim reading.

I can't see any takeover or JV occurring until after SA-3 and Shaikan-7.

[bigdog5] 19/3/2014 23:04

LR2, welcome onboard.

I think you can bring forward your production rates.
TK said been exporting at least 10k a day since Dec 1st. You're only allowing $20 per barrel, little low?
What about the exploration back costs currently at $800m?
Bir's (LOL)

Not sure what bob is on about as regards expenditure on SA/BB/Akri.
BB not doing anything till 4th Q.
Akri not much.
Haven't seen SA4 mentioned.

So much that looks fishy imho.
We need a sell out or a partner to drive share price forward. That and a big broom.

[lr2] 19/3/2014 22:08

Pointed over here by BigDog who must be one clever dude as I almost always agree with what he posts.

PCI - big favourite of mine - hugely undervalued - been in since they were equivalent of 110p.

GKP - taking a pummelling right now but should be OK.

What follows is for Bigdog. The rest of you guys feel free to ignore it.
________________________________________________________________________

So where are GKP going moneywise in the near future?

Money already here & coming in

Existing cash - US$81.9 million as at 31 January 2014.

Any day now (hopefully) – Bonds $250 million.

Sometime, maybe - Excalibur still owe £5.6 million ($9.3 million).

Past few months / present day - 690k oil sales since late Dec '13 – 54% at say $20 Another 215k delivery late March. That's 905k sales in 3 months or around 10k a day average. 5.4k at $20 x 90 days = $9.7 million.

Going forward Q2 – add in PF-4 at 6k a day and next quarter should be (16 x $20 x 90 x 54%) $15.5 million.

Getting hazy now but Q3 and PF-2 should be on line and PF-1 should be at 20k a day.

PF-2 starts at 10k and PF-1 at 20k – (30 x $20 x 90 x 54%) $29.2 million.

And Q4 – assume PF-2 now 20k a day and bigger tubing at PF-1 allows increase to 25k a day. (45 x $20 x 90 x 54%) $43.7

End of year (perfect world) income (81.9 + 250 + 9.3 + 9.7 + 15.5 + 29.2 + 43.7) $439.3 million.

Money going out

Planned capital expenditure for 2014 - US$210 million.

Corp Bond interest - $17.2 million.

2014 year end balance – $439.3 – $227.2 = $212.1 million.

I'm sure there will be other expenses but I've no idea how much right now and need a break, so will be pleased to hear from others what they think they might be.

For time being I'm going to drop the $212.1 million down to $175 million.

2015 planned expenditure - $340 million so with $175 million in the bank they will need to raise another $165. Maybe another cash raise or maybe an asset sale (Akri-Bijeel) – who knows.

Looks do-able? What do you guys think?

Read more:

[manulad] 17/3/2014 20:19

KEA
Interesting late trade reported for 1 million shares reported (time 16.32) at 2.875p at significantly above the bid price of 2.6p. Serious money for just a punt?