Rhythmone Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 26/10/2016 15:03

STT - post 1552. Well the company's own guidance in May was for a return to full-year profitability (on an adjusted EBITDA basis) this year and they have since said (this month) that they were materially ahead of expectations in 1H on adjusted EBITDA (at least that's my reading) with a 1H adjusted EBITDA loss below ($2.9m).

So I would have thought any rational analyst (or person) is now expecting quite a chunky adjusted EBITDA profit in 2H (i.e. May guidance implies at least $2.9m in 2H and the "materially ahead" suggests they might be heading for double figures I would have thought).

So I would actually be quite surprised if any analysts who have looked at the full year guidance and 1H TU are still expecting them to be loss-making on an adjusted EBITDA basis in FY17.

That then leaves a debate around adjusted EBITDA vs adjusted eps vs statutory eps.

[alex1621] 26/10/2016 14:54

Yes Stocky, anyone who spends time overseas certainly feels the difference in rates. I read one of the Thai forums and several Brits on fixed GBP pensions finding the going tough. I guess it is the same for those on the Med. Perhaps we'll be swapping young vibrant taxpaying foreigners for overseas Brit OAP's?As for R1, it looks to be where it should be share price wise. If cash burn is eliminated I would expect it to take a step up again.

[sikhthetech] 26/10/2016 14:50

The cash reported fy was $78.4m

This is reported as:
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities...

could the Marketable Securities be US Bonds, which at the time of the H1 TU, were continuing to trend lower...

Could it be that they didn't want to report cash and Marketabe Securities, hoping that the trend will reverse by H1 results...

[sikhthetech] 26/10/2016 14:38

what do you think of fb's post that most people and analyst are thinking that they are around breakeven or coming up to it....

have you seen any other anaylsts estimates?



football25 Oct '16 - 17:14 - 2481 of 2506 1 1
They said they are " materially ahead of management expectations" most people and analysts are thinking that they are around breakeven point or coming up to it, so they could be up to 9.9% ahead of their figures/numbers without having to to inform the market therefore they could be in profit already without having to inform the market.

[sikhthetech] 26/10/2016 14:34

so possibly a change this month from 0 to -0.01 and hasn't changed post TU???

[1gw] 26/10/2016 14:32

Not necessarily contradictory. For example a change may have been made more than 4 weeks ago but within the last month. Or a new estimate may have been included (rather than a change to an existing one). Since they have 3 ratings but only 2 estimates, clearly not all those analysts providing ratings are also providing estimates.

[sikhthetech] 26/10/2016 14:29

Arris' results day... :-)

[sikhthetech] 26/10/2016 14:20

CONSENSUS ESTIMATES ANALYSIS
SUS ESTIMATES TREND
Sales and Profit Figures in US Dollar (USD)
Earnings and Dividend Figures in US Dollar (USD)
Current 1 Week
Ago 1 Month
Ago 2 Month
Ago 1 Year
Ago
SALES (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-16 166.70 -- -- -- --
Year Ending Mar-17 166.70 166.70 -- -- --
Year Ending Mar-18 182.50 182.50 -- -- --
Earnings (per share)
Year Ending Mar-16 -0.03 -- -- -- --
Year Ending Mar-17 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 0.02
Year Ending Mar-18 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03
ESTIMATES REVISIONS SUMMARY
Last Week Last 4 Weeks
Number Of Revisions: Up Down Up Down
Revenue
Year Ending Mar-16 -- -- -- --
Year Ending Mar-17 0 0 -- --
Year Ending Mar-18 0 0 -- --
Earnings
Year Ending Mar-16 -- -- -- --
Year Ending Mar-17 0 0 0 0
Year Ending Mar-18 0 0 0 0

[sikhthetech] 26/10/2016 14:19

the 2 tables contradict then...

the 'Consensus Estimates Trend' table shows
1 week ago -0.01
1 month ago 0

The 'current' for fy2018 shows as -0.01...

1 year ago +0.03

The Anaylsts recommendation and revision table also shows '1' for current in the 'outperform' column... which must be Numis..

Have you seen any info elsewhere to confirm which is correct?

[sikhthetech] 26/10/2016 13:58

same fy 2018..
1yr ago
+0.03

[sikhthetech] 26/10/2016 13:50

agree... too many waiting for clarity on cash and outlook... again...

[jwoolley] 26/10/2016 13:42

Doubt it will fall out of current range. Volumes are poor but reckon that and the share price will increase a tad in the run up to results

[sikhthetech] 26/10/2016 13:38

I've still got my punt... watching to see whether they fall out of the current range...
vols too low...

Still need to wait to see the amount of cash... more waiting...

[jwoolley] 26/10/2016 13:33

You holding yet sikhers or what???

[sikhthetech] 26/10/2016 13:30

sshhh.. don't wake up the munchins on the Wizard of Oz thread...
They're on the yellow brick road to see the Wizard of Oz...
;-)

[jwoolley] 26/10/2016 13:28

Your mate football has apparently?? 😉

[stocky] 26/10/2016 13:09

Dyardley, why would a move above 37 or below 34 influence you? The shareprice has been manipulated for nearly 3 years. It would not take much effort to influence it either way. The tables will only turn once the board and the big boys have had enough of these games.Mar Cap circa £150mRevenues circa £120mNew Tech in a consolidating Industry.Someone - not to mention names - going crazy. This is a case study.....

[stocky] 26/10/2016 12:59

That would be great, Alex. Indeed everything abroad is now more expensive. Sterling is so low. Flights are stupid expensive, but it is also the time of year.