Rhythmone Share Discussion Threads

[gowlane] 21/4/2018 19:50

1gw, re your query

I took the $3m adjusted EBITDA for H1 from the results of course.

As regards the $4m for H2, yes I used the F-4 2017 figures for adjusted EBITDA of $7m for the full year and did a rough apportionment pro rata.

This being indicative of their earning power as a combined entity (IR,Perk and Rad-1) for 6 months.

Because while they were not together for the full year they were together for July-Dec, which is ok for my purposes.

Not saying that it is precise, we are using estimates after all, and these are muddy waters, but as the basis of an estimate that looks ok as I see it?

[dealy] 21/4/2018 19:42

Sikh,Even if you right the business you are describing is worth more than the current 100m GBP enterprise value

[sikhthetech] 21/4/2018 19:07

gl, good post.. some desperately underwater blinkered posters want to hide it...
I wonder why?

TRUE or FALSE...

TRUE




gowlane21 Apr '18 - 13:21 - 7132 of 7147Moderate | Ban
1.110 4 1
Well we rubbished the F-4 projections and broker forecasts. Now, after the TU, and with the benefit of hindsight, were we correct? What is the VERDICT on our assessment: TRUE or FALSE?

A reasonable estimate is that 1R should do $115m, Perk $60m, and Rad-1 no more than say $80m in 2018-19 revenues. YuMe might do $160m despite RhythmMax filters being applied for the first time.

That is a grand total of $415m, or $72m less than the Numis projection of $487m revenue for FY19.

No need to spell out that projected EBITDA will be hit hard as well.

Clearly they need a big acquisition to have a chance of making guidance, but can they afford to buy a profitable one? Even if it is just profitable at EBITDA level and really loss making.

VERDICT: TRUE.

Barring miracles or acquisitions a huge revenue shortfall against guidance for FY19 looks inevitable on current performance. No bottom line net profit in sight here in FY19, in my humble opinion.

[sikhthetech] 21/4/2018 18:59

1gw,

you think posters who post a well written 'plausible' script be believed...
like Shroder and sobeit (iii) used to, with their knowledge of the company and inside contacts...where did they disappear - at around the same time...


Have you ever considered you can be wrong and have proven to be wrong many times...


whether it be trying to persuade posters that arb trading is easy or those 'confidence boosting' brokers forecasts - now changed to 'mouth watering' forecasts...

I'm glad I never listened to you and bought on your comments about 'confidence boosting' brokers comments - I would have been down 60-70% (I'm sure you will work out the exact figure and ask for an apology)...

are you going to apologise to all the posters who may have bought on your 'confidence' well written comments are now down 60-70%...
No, I didn't think so...

[sikhthetech] 21/4/2018 18:52

Loaf,

How's your $50m-$60m coming along...
Huge miss there...
are you going to apologise..



loafofbread - 18 Apr 2018 - 22:28:16 - 13579 of 13713 RhythmOne - 2016 a new beginning - RTHM
Any sniff of $50/60M this year should have us back to £4 by the summer.

[sikhthetech] 21/4/2018 18:51

oh dear, I expect you would want an apology from all the blinkered posters who regularly post lies and misleading posts...

lol

[loafofbread] 21/4/2018 17:41

Bless little silky and his little flock of lambs.

How they come running as he goes into overdrive.

Bleet, bleet ,bleet, silky silky i'm here..

Lets make sure the put aside a children's room at the AGM so they can all have fun.

[sikhthetech] 21/4/2018 17:25

lol... oh dear..


I think you'll find the blinkered posters have been wrong AGAIN... I know it can be frustrating to accept but there you go...




why should anyone believe you - you've been proven wrong so many times




Did they back up their bullish comments when it came to the financials???


Maybe 1R will reduce any forecasts later in the year... once ads.txt, GDPR and move to fee transparency hits...


Remember those comments about confidence boosting brokers notes... and your comments on F4...


So will you be right in ANOTHER YEAR'S time... maybe once out of 4 yrs... ;-)

Remember you thought the share price would reach 400p before 300p and the F4 would provide the boost and clarity... well did the F4 do that.. No..




1gw - 03 Apr 2017 - 10:23:37 - 5754 of 12456 RhythmOne - 2016 a new beginning - RTHM
Confidence-boosting reiterations from N+1 Singer and Whitman Howard today, ahead of the TU:

Singer: 65p / Buy
WH: 60p / Buy




and your comments on F4...

sikhthetech22 Sep '17 - 14:56 - 5248 of 5675 4 1 Edit
I think these will fall to below 300p (post consolidation)..
All depends on TU from 1R and Yume...


1gw22 Sep '17 - 17:30 - 5249 of 5675 4 0 Moderate | Ban
I'm hoping they hit £4 before £3. I think the proxy document (F4 or whatever) will include proforma accounts for the whole shebang (R1+Perk+Radiumone+YuMe). I think this will be a lot more significant than current trading, as it will show the true scale of the business, which is a bit of a mystery at the moment.

[1gw] 21/4/2018 16:53

Why should anyone believe stt is capable of reading a document or doing any actual interpretation of data anymore? I've lost track of the number of times I've pointed this out on various bulletin boards, but the F4 figures on page 89 are for calendar years, not R1 financial years. So the "2018E" numbers are for calendar year 2018.

"A summary of the information that was included in the RhythmOne Projections is set forth below, including reconciliation between the Non-IFRS prospective financial information and the comparable IFRS measures for calendar years 2017 through 2021. "

[sikhthetech] 21/4/2018 16:42

it's still a miss...
compared to their F4 projections a HUGE MISS on their own forecasts..

pg 89



Why should anyone believe 1R forecasts anymore....

[geheimnis2] 21/4/2018 16:28

Lol another great call from Johnny boy!

Looks like loops is washing her hair again/recovering from a serious friction injury? Ditto hotpants?

[lance corporal winstanley ash] 21/4/2018 16:18

Perhaps put down the abacus and replace it with a dictionary? 'Accurate'

[sikhthetech] 21/4/2018 16:14

lcwa,

Did the figures in the TU miss those estimates or were they ahead of those expectations..

$255m rev
$14m ebidta

According to my abacus 1R's figures are lower, so they missed...



Lance Corporal Winstanley Ash21 Apr '18 - 14:30 - 7133 of 7137Moderate | Ban
0 0 1
The broker consensus estimates for full year 2018 are 263 rev and 14.8m ebitda adj. I'd say they were pretty accurate.

[sikhthetech] 21/4/2018 16:07

gl,

"Well we rubbished the F-4 projections and broker forecasts. Now, after the TU, and with the benefit of hindsight, were we correct?"

Absolutely, YET AGAIN, the realists were right.... no doubt about it, the revenue forecasts, Company (F4) or brokers were missed...

Huge revenue miss...

As some of use have repeatedly said...


1R have a history of bullish comments and failing to back them up when it comes to results - and it was no different, this time....

Maybe, just maybe next year will be different... obviously 1R have taken the impact of ads.txt, GDPR, move to fee transparency, move to fewer DSPs/SSPs and now it appears some ad tech companies are withdrawing from Europe over GDPR...


Maybe they will lower their expectations AGAIN....

[digitalis] 21/4/2018 16:00

I say TLY is totally f*kd but I don’t know for sure?.....

Anyone else got any wild weekend guesses regarding rhythm?

[dealy] 21/4/2018 15:53

Thanks Midas

[geheimnis2] 21/4/2018 15:50

Lol digi

Jonthec is frightening to farmyard animals!

[digitalis] 21/4/2018 15:45

Imagine paying jonc to sort your tax affairs!!.....frightening!

[geheimnis2] 21/4/2018 15:41

Haha just a thought, Barky?

The scaffolders are never wrong!

[1gw] 21/4/2018 15:33

gowlane - I'm struggling to follow some of your comments relating to F4 targets / guidance.

e.g. "They made $3m EBITDA in H1 and 1R was projected to make $4m in H2 according to the F4.

At $7m EBITDA for the year (excl YuMe) that would have been a big miss as they had forecast $15m."

Did they make an EBITDA projection somewhere apart from the R1 projections section, page 89?

Because if you're getting the $7m from the 2017 column there (calendar 2017, so not too far away from FY18) that's a bit of a nonsense number in the context of R1 actual results (excluding YuMe), in the sense that it is "proforma" i.e. it is put together on the basis that R1 owned RadiumOne (and Perk) from 1st January 2017, which clearly it didn't.

[barkboo] 21/4/2018 15:26

JohnnyC - "We now know they had to pay to settle" can you post evidence up please...I say Dataxu payed RTHM to settle..but I don't know for sure?

[jonc] 21/4/2018 15:09

Yes but those forecasts were made after the acquisitions.

Like forecasting a racing result when it is over.

Ask berkpoo he is a specialist in that.