Rhythmone Share Discussion Threads

[digitalis] 20/4/2018 07:13

Viex capital is waay above 5.0% imho.....that 31/12/17 date is the last sec record,one due soon for this last quarter which should show singer and viex holding increased

[wheeze] 20/4/2018 06:51

This from FT com. Any thoughts on what the numbers should look like now including GS which is around 10% ? I thought the institutional holdings of R1 were greater than this - am I missing something ? Is Cogefi somewhere on this list ? Toscafund Asset Management LLPAS OF 12 FEB 201818.76m 24.21%River & Mercantile Asset Management LLPAS OF 02 FEB 20185.24m 6.76%VIEX Capital Advisors, LLCAS OF 31 DEC 20174.02m 5.19%Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers Ltd.AS OF 01 MAR 20181.79m 2.31%Northern Trust Global Investments Ltd. (Securities Lending)AS OF 01 MAR 20181.54m 1.98%Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Ltd.AS OF 28 FEB 20181.49m 1.93%Hargreave Hale Ltd.AS OF 01 MAR 2018983.00k 1.27%Cannell Capital LLCAS OF 31 DEC 2017571.95k 0.74%HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Ltd.AS OF 01 MAR 2018567.00k 0.73%Norges Bank Investment ManagementAS OF 01 MAR 2018498.00k 0.64%Data from 30 Sep 2017 - 03 Apr 2018

[1gw] 19/4/2018 23:43

Gowlane - yes, you're right on the cash bridge. It is described as a bridge for the Period and the Period is defined as the whole year but actually it starts from the end-1H position

[sikhthetech] 19/4/2018 23:41

yep, funny that... oh Yume...

It's going to be even more interesting this year, with ads.txt, GDPR and if there is a concerted effort to move to fee transparency and fewer DSPs/SSPs...

[gowlane] 19/4/2018 23:37

Unfortunately for them Sikh, the Rad1 acquisition seems to have been a dud.

But surprisingly they report a $50m revenue shortfall and yet they still almost meet the original ebitda guidance?!

Hmmm...

[sikhthetech] 19/4/2018 23:26

gl,

good post..

"These two must have brought in around $85m in acquired turnover, so the $220m in guidance converts to $305m when you add the acquisitions.

Instead of which we have $253m, effectively a miss of over $50m on their original guidance, which is rather large."

"Instead of which we have $253m, effectively a miss of over $50m on their original guidance, which is rather large."

spot on...they missed by a huge margin on their guidance...
Maybe they could see they were going to miss and that was why Yume acquisition was completed 2 months ahead of schedule...

[digitalis] 19/4/2018 23:23

I did say this over a week ago,I couldn’t believe the bat phone from other institutions was not red hot.....hint GS
Today’s Tu is a matter of record now.....full figures to look forward too,

[midasx] 19/4/2018 23:19

Excellent and honest post 1gw! FY2019 is what the market should be looking to re-rate the share price on and that makes the current 20p way too cheap!

A sign of Directors confidence would be good to help the re-rating before we are potentially taken out too cheaply.

[gowlane] 19/4/2018 23:16

Interesting post by 1gw, we seem to agree on the revenue shortfall

But cash from operations was -$14.6m in H1, $21.2m in H2, so a net +$6.6m for the full year, no?

[1gw] 19/4/2018 23:15

Pure speculation this, but I wonder if a reason for the apparent delay in publishing the TU might have been Singer knocking heads together and getting any risk-averse R1 directors/senior management (Dan, Ed?) "comfortable" with giving such strong and clear guidance. I'd be very surprised if some of the institutions haven't been bending his ear about giving some unambiguous public guidance to try to counter the downward shareprice trend.

[football] 19/4/2018 23:14

Rocket forgot to say thanks for all the coins! Why mine when you can get them for free

[digitalis] 19/4/2018 23:08

Lol....two excellent posts fb barky to ace a buffoon

[barkboo] 19/4/2018 23:08

Btw RF - do you remember how much you were ramping this up for? Shall we just say rather a lot. lol

[barkboo] 19/4/2018 23:06

RF - I would lay off the crack you are begining to sound disturbed. Listen, did I mention I never come second.

You have already come second here - you post with no money!

[precinct14] 19/4/2018 23:01

Excellent post,1gw. All done without scaffolding, too.

[digitalis] 19/4/2018 22:55

Yep....you do know how cheap that is in old money?...!!!

£20+ only a while back,we are a Goliath compared to the old company......

Market will decide,it gets it wrong occasionally that’s value investment.....I like to think this is my 3rd time lucky here....

[rocket fuel] 19/4/2018 22:54

oh dear, all the well positioned holders seem to be very angry men after todays limp share price reaction.. too much emotion flowing through the fam again.. it could all end in tears.

[1gw] 19/4/2018 22:52

Fleshed out optimism then.

They have basically delivered over the last 2 years in my opinion. If you look at the trends they are exciting, albeit starting from a low base. If I have the numbers right, some key metrics are:

Revenues:
FY16 $167m
FY17 $175m (including discontinued ops)
FY18 $255m

Adjusted EBITDA:
FY16 -$10m
FY17 +$1m
FY18 +$14m

Profit/Loss:
FY16 -$92m
FY17 -$19m
FY18 -$?m {-$8m in 1H)

Cash from operations:
FY16 -$6m (Net cash used in operating activities)
FY17 -$6m
FY18 +$7m (corrected)

If I then look at the specific "guidance" for FY18, a year ago, before RadiumOne and YuMe, they pointed to the "consensus" estimates of $220m revenue and $15.1m adjusted EBITDA.

Revenue guidance
Radium One did $20m in financial 2Q, so maybe $40m in 3Q+4Q, $60m for FY18.
YuMe was doing around $40m/quarter, so maybe $25m in Feb-Mar
So adding $220m+$60m+25m, you get to about $305m
Even allowing for some closing down of "non-core" in RadiumOne and YuMe it seems they've come in a bit light on revenue compared to the original consensus.

Adjusted EBITDA guidance
RadiumOne was originally expected to be adj EBITDA neutral over the first 12 months, but then they said synergy delivery was behind schedule. So we can expect an adj EBITDA loss from RadiumOne in the FY18 numbers. YuMe was adjusted EBITDA profitable, so this would help to offset the RadiumOne loss.
It seems to me they must have come close to guidance (adjusted for acquisitions) on adjusted EBITDA

Plus they've done 2 major acquisitions in the year.

So light on revenue, close on adjusted EBITDA and 2 acquisitions. But the acquisitions give them scale, so the revenue miss is outweighed (I would say) by the acquired revenue and improved profitability going forward.

So I'd say a resounding success for FY18. Sort of guided, came reasonably close to guidance and also delivered 2 big acquisitions which vastly increase scale. Then on cash, they're actually significantly operating cashflow positive it appears, which would be a huge change and testament (so far) to the logic of the scale-giving acquisitions.

But the real reason for optimism is the actual guidance for FY19. No longer just pointing to consensus but stating that they believe they "are well-positioned to deliver a further strong performance in FY2019 - fully in line with current consensus estimates in market"

And as others have posted market estimates (Whitman Howard, Numis) are mouth-watering.

And all that against the background of a huge sell off in the share price over the last year - which must have left many shareholders fearing that the TU would reveal an obvious (in hindsight) reason for the sell off.

How's that for considered optimism?

.No advice intended of course and please do your own research.

[kulvinder] 19/4/2018 22:48

Lost touch here since I last got margined out on this, So we back up to approx 20p old money?

[rocket fuel] 19/4/2018 22:48

Norman Stanley Barkboo.. a five stretch with cell mate footy ought to be adequate punishment to fit the crime M'lud.

[barkboo] 19/4/2018 22:48

Just look, 20 mins - I love it more than the money!.....ok, question time - nite, nite!

[digitalis] 19/4/2018 22:45

Lol....as I said last week the standard of bashing is at an all time low,they are so transparent I’m surprised the username clingfilm hasn’t turned up.....

My old chum lelout obviously sprained his wrist last night,probably in mourning for sikhys uncle today.....

Another exciting day tomorrow peeps,wonder how many bashers fold and buy in behind the turbanator lol.....