Revolution Bars Share Discussion Threads

[busterdog2] 22/5/2017 12:09

Steep fall unwarranted?? I don't think so, well deserved IMO.

[nurdin] 22/5/2017 12:08

All in the price now surely. PE around 6.5ish prospective

[sherylchan] 22/5/2017 12:01

GHF - I read the Finncap note, on balance the steep fall is unwarranted?

[glasshalfull] 22/5/2017 11:54

Few snippets from the finnCap update worth sharing,

"EBITDA guidance below expectations leads us to reduce our FY17E and FY18E adj. EPS by 22% and 19% respectively and PT from 250p to 180p. 

FY17 profit below expectations. Recent management guidance implies FY17 EBITDA c13% below our expectations.  H2 LFL sales growth weakened. FY17 LFL growth of 1.7% (excluding refurbishments) implies 1.4% growth in H2 v 2% in H1. With the first 8 weeks of H2 at 1.7%, implied LFL growth for the balance of H2 is c1%.

Easter trading disappointed, with the timing this year comparing unfavourably to the PY which coincided with month-end pay day. 

Cost headwinds are greater than expected. Management appears to have under-estimated well-publicised wage and property rates inflation with a 10% increase now forecast for the latter. The impact of wage inflation from change in both the Minimum Wage and NLW was also underestimated due to higher wage rates for older staff leading to higher retention of those age groups and a higher increase in the average pay rate – post April 2017, for example, employees moving from age 20 to 21 receive a pay rate 33% higher YoY."

---

Regards
GHF

[lampran] 22/5/2017 11:38

Research Tree @research_tree

finnCap downgrades Revolution Bars RBG forecasts following profit warning: ow.ly/w6P130bVAxt

[nurdin] 22/5/2017 10:30

A sitting duck I reckon

[thevaluehunter] 22/5/2017 10:14

Could use almost entirely debt to fund it given the current mcap.

[philanderer] 22/5/2017 09:11

FinnCap retains 'buy'...... cuts target from 250p to 180p

[barnetpeter] 22/5/2017 09:03

Those who bought in early are already 8 per cent down.

[opodio] 22/5/2017 08:59

Alchemy used to own Revolution


I wonder if they will grab it again at half the price

[buywell3] 22/5/2017 08:38

Inflation on the rise is something to consider

China is exporting it around the world

Also you might want to consider that Revolution have already committed by the signing of leases for the new bars that now have to be opened in 2017

I bet they wish they had never signed those leases

Be interesting to see if they open any in 2018

Looks like early mug punters will get burnt today


read this for a better update

ProPhotonix Limited AGM Statement 18 May 2017

18/05/2017

AGM Statement

ProPhotonix Limited (London Stock Exchange - AIM: PPIX, OTC: STKR), a high technology designer and manufacturer of LED illumination systems and laser diode modules, with operations in Ireland and the United Kingdom, is holding its Annual General Meeting at 2:00pm today, at which the President and CEO, Tim Losik, will make the following statement:

"2016 was a successful year for ProPhotonix with another year of net profit. During 2016, net income increased 348%, operating income increased 89% and EBITDA increased by 49%, each compared with 2015.

"In addition, the ProPhotonix team has been diligently pursuing new customers and new product and market initiatives, which has resulted in an encouraging 2017 to date. The Company has enlarged its UV product family to include the COBRA Cure FX3, its highest intensity fan cooled UV LED products, and adds to the existing COBRA Cure FX1 and the COBRA Cure FX2.

"The Board remains positive about the business pipeline and is confident in the Company's ability to achieve continued positive momentum toward its business objectives."

[5chipper] 22/5/2017 08:30

Buywell3.. in the feb interims report ceo discussed extra cost headwinds and told investors they were working hard to mitigate.

On friday he stated profits will be same as last year. . If you consider newly opened bars did not contribute to profitability then same set of profitable bars have generated the same profit as last year. Considering the all time high increase in nmw and b. rates then this seems to be a mitigation strategy well executed. Something to consider

[stocky12] 22/5/2017 08:24

Takeover bid speculation already?

[buywell3] 22/5/2017 08:21

Not an auspicious start to the day

Will early mug punters have set stops ?

[connor23] 22/5/2017 08:04

I see Langton mentioned PE interest reports. Presumably in the specialist press as I didn't see anything.

[opodio] 22/5/2017 07:43

Boucne to 170p?

BID

Place your bets lads

[blusteradjuster] 22/5/2017 07:42

I said it's a constant in that it's generally above zero.

I didn't say it was a constant value.

A one-off blip in costs stays in the released-monthly inflation figures for a whole year but a PLC would probably only warn of it (ideally pre-warn) once.

[connor23] 22/5/2017 07:30

No wage price inflation in the UK (I can testify to this lol) so the min wage bump should be a one off. Obviously more detail on the costs overrun and how the company intends to mitigate would be useful. The point is (for bulls) the negatives are more than in the price.

[buywell3] 22/5/2017 07:22

Inflation is constant my @rse it is on the increase which is why house prices are now falling

Hence bar leases signed up to would have been cheaper next year and cheaper still the year after

Also following the 25th Feb positive Interims the pace at which Revolution is planning to open new bars has accelerated and is set to carry on into 2017 with more new bars



But

These new sites come at a price, with a whopping 183 per cent rise in one-off opening costs

[blusteradjuster] 22/5/2017 07:21

Inflation is, generally, a constant..

..but there was:

- a sizeable hike in the minimum wage that won't be repeated to the same degree.
- the fall in the £ (partly reversed recently), creates a one-off blip in inflation.

Yes, they should have factored this in.
No, it doesn't look like part of a new trend.

[buywell3] 22/5/2017 07:02

The problem is the CEO only said this a couple of months ago




So on Feb 25th , everything was hunky dory

11 weeks later things have changed and he says ''increases in minimum wage, the apprenticeship levy, and the rise in general business rates'' have all been blamed for costs that are now going to be more than anticipated.

But inflation is now on the rise EVERYWHERE , costs are going up from now on , wages ,rates and prices for goods are all going to rise from this point on.


This year the financial year end for Revolution is June 30th.

The impact of rising costs for the year 2017 will be felt for the whole 52 weeks NOT just the last 11 weeks since the +ve slanted interim results given on Feb 25th.

Hence I think the slide on Friday was deemed by the market as profit warning number 1.

The market now waits for the next trading update , profit warnings have a tendency to go in 3's

Sure I expect there might be a bounce this am as mug punters try to make a quick buck , but when they sell , what happens next ?

[moneytree1] 22/5/2017 06:59

paulypilot

It's a fantastic business model. Investors just have to sit back & do nothing, and in 5 years time we should be significantly richer from this share.

Over-analysing historic numbers is completely missing the point!



another useless call from the 'guru'......