Revolution Bars Share Discussion Threads

[turbocharge] 19/5/2017 17:08

It may be some comfort to know that those running Rev Bars have bought shares, though not substantial amounts:

4 OCT 2016
Mr. K G Edelman CHAIRMAN 15,000 @ 1.55 - 23.25k
Mr. M Shallow 12,903 @ 1.55 - 20.00k
Mr. M R McQuater CEO 113,650 @ 1.55 - 176.16k
C Chambers CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER 9,677 @ 1.55 - 15.00k
18 MAR 2015
Mr. K G Edelman CHAIRMAN 30,500 @ 1.95 - 59.48k
Mr. M Shallow 12,750 @ 1.95 - 24.86k

[turbocharge] 19/5/2017 16:47

Was thinking of putting in a limit order at around 122 earlier, ended up just buying at 126...

That sudden drop in the last 5 mins, is that what they call a tree shake by the MM's?

[paduardo] 19/5/2017 16:42

well bought at 146, set a nice tight stop at 140 and the was stopped out. Bought back in at the bottom at 138, then some more at the new bottom at 126, then some more at the final bottom of 120. Don't think I can't take many more of these false bottoms....at yet another reminder of what the whole point of a stop loss is.

[muffinhead] 19/5/2017 16:36

broker margin calls into the bell

[dan_the_epic] 19/5/2017 15:36

The problem here is operational gearing. If growth really does grind negative, that Ebitda will be slashed in a flash.

[bones] 19/5/2017 15:35

That may be so, Pugugly, but I suspect RBG is a sitting duck for a takeover at these levels given its assets and lack of debt.

[pugugly] 19/5/2017 15:32

British Pub Chains Are Drowning Their Sorrows This Week


Read across - all bars are under extreme pricing pressure so (imo) the competitive environment may well lead to yet further and un forcast margin erosion.

[thevaluehunter] 19/5/2017 14:44

I'm in. Roll out on c£15m ebitda with no debt and a market cap of £64m.

[turbocharge] 19/5/2017 13:55

Just entered the fray, bought 1,888 @ 1.26

[connor23] 19/5/2017 13:52

Thanks GHF. Useful commentary.

[panic investor] 19/5/2017 13:52

Whilst it is true that customers have little loyalty in this business the fact the high streets are being turned into entertainment zones with far less focus on shopping should help - the high street is dead regarding that unless your specialist shopping i.e. High end jewellery etcPeople - the young - are spending as they have no realistic chance of purchasing property

[panic investor] 19/5/2017 13:46

I have too

[glasshalfull] 19/5/2017 13:46

Few of us having a nibble it would appear.

Numis have downgraded adj EBITDA by 12% while shareprice has been whacked by almost 40%.

Here's what they have to say,

"Lfl sales growth now stands at 1.7% YTD vs 2% in H1 and 1.7% weeks 27-34. This implies a slowdown to 1.3% in the last 18 weeks. The company suggests that disappointing trading over Easter and the first May bank holiday is a factor here.

Management has underestimated the impact of new wage legislation. Although the NLW was introduced in April 2016, there were also NMW increases (applying to under 25s) in October 2016 and April 2017. Similarly, labour market data shows a wider impact on differentials across the sector, hence we believe labour inflation is 100 to 200bp higher than previously guided.

Revolucion de Cuba site openings are taking longer to reach mature levels of profitability, despite producing a weekly turnover in line with target (£43k). This reflects the more labour intensive customer service in this model (compared to Revolution sites).

Two large sites were closed for unplanned refurbishments in H2 (Blackpool and Cardiff). The loss of four week's trading could have an impact of up to £0.3m on operating profit we estimate.

and

For FY17 we now assume lfl sales growth of 1.5%, GM reduction of 100bp and 5% wage growth. This gives adjusted EBITDA (excluding pre-opening costs) of £15.6m, a 12% downgrade.

EPS exc pre-opening cost is 13.7p (or 12.1p post). In FY18, lfl sales growth of c.3% will be needed to cover cost inflation in the existing estate.

We cautiously assume 1.5% lfl sales growth but expect the group to generate c.£1m in cost mitigation. Combined with the impact of new site openings, this gives adjusted EBITDA of £17.2m, a 10% y-on-y improvement but 12% downgrade against our previous forecast."

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Hope this assists.

Kind regards
GHF

[nurdin] 19/5/2017 13:29

I have bought a few as well...purely as a punt

[bones] 19/5/2017 13:20

Having sold back in Feb when the FD resigned, I am pleased I did in retrospect (post 198 @ 198p, spooky)

However, I am pretty amazed at the severity of today's drop so I have opened a small long spreadbet at 127p. Risk reward feels OK for a bounce to 150p maybe?

[dusseldorf] 19/5/2017 13:03

Oversold maybe, but the market doesn't seem to have any support - suggests one of the big boys has dumped and it may take some time, and further price drops to absorb it - even though fundamentally not a huge amount has changed.

have added to my watch, but so sign of price strength yet....

[sailing john] 19/5/2017 12:55

Bought at 128p
Oversold?
Cracking balance sheet
Like CV of interim FD (though not reasearched beyond RNS)
GL SJ