Restaurant Share Discussion Threads

[mashman] 04/11/2021 00:39

It’s not really about about how busy they are, they can be rammed every night but if they are not coping with margins and costs it doesn’t mean anything. It must be hard for them when they ‘have to open’ to stay in business but any margin in eroded by cost.

So if 80p is breached we may see 60.

[farrugia] 03/11/2021 11:47

Nightcap update pretty upbeat - up 21% the stock price so far today - I added on Revolution Bars (RBG) this morning on the read-thru. I trust RTN is not doing too shabby either. People are fed up of staying at home and want to go out plus less restrictions on travel means more business at RTN's restaurants at airports.

[adobbing] 02/11/2021 09:28

Which sites are you referring to when you say “ forcing sites to shut shop” ?

[mashman] 01/11/2021 23:08

The business rate tax relief amounts to diddly squat unfortunately and a lack of chefs is forcing sites to shut shop. Inflation and belt-tightening and an uncertain Christmas looming. The only way is down imo

[farrugia] 29/10/2021 10:02

so not really per club but max of 110k

[mashman] 28/10/2021 18:20

Edited because my last post was way out.

Its a max of 110k per company so 50% off 220k

About 5 sites per company

[farrugia] 28/10/2021 08:42

are you sure its per site mashman? it makes a big difference. I'm unsure if the stock price could go further down due to the uncertainty from the pandemic but the government cannot afford to shut businesses again. So i'll just wait it out - their business prospects are improving anyway as international travel rules are being relaxed. When things become more clear it will likely be too late.

[mashman] 27/10/2021 22:00

I still think existing problem are going to drive this lower over the next few months despite this small bit of good news

[mashman] 27/10/2021 21:57

Farruggia

The business rate cut benefits per site :-)

[mashman] 27/10/2021 21:47

What’s with the massive selling? Trades show a very high volume of selling into that spike.

[adobbing] 27/10/2021 19:04

My understanding is that as they are charged per location, as below, the reduction would be per location.



“ We assess all non-domestic properties for business rates in England and Wales and work out the rateable value for your property. For pubs, we use ‘fair maintainable trade’ as the basis for our assessment. This means we base our valuations for pubs and licensed premises on actual rents and trade. Local councils use our assessment to calculate the rates payable for your property.”

Also to note.
Brunning & Price operate mainly in England, with from memory only about 5 sites in Wales and non in Scotland or Northern Ireland.

As per the BBC article, the budget reduction “may” only apply in England, as business rates are devolved in the other countries.

Scotland, wales etc may chose not to implement and just trouser the reduction themselves, offering no reduction to the individual pub.

So this would offer other pubco’s, with outlets in devolved parts of the UK, less of a benefit than RTN!

[farrugia] 27/10/2021 16:25

also business rates:

'Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced a temporary 50% cut in their business rates, up to a maximum of £110,000'

but is this per pub/restaurant or per company?

[adobbing] 27/10/2021 14:46

Agreed, for the same reasons that JDW, M&B and Marstons rally, so should RTN as a result of Brunning & Price.

Edit: Looks like the rally may have begun

[farrugia] 27/10/2021 14:27

Shares of Britain’s pub operators rallied as Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak announced lower taxes on beer in his autumn budget.

J D Wetherspoon Plc rose as much as 6.4%, the most in more than seven months, while peers Mitchells & Butlers Plc and Marston’s Plc added 5% and 7.1%, respectively.

Doesn't RTN also operate pubs - it seems the rally is missing here!!

[farrugia] 27/10/2021 13:47

Mr Sunak announced another year of business rates relief for firms in the retail, hospitality and leisure sectors. They will be able to claim a 50pc discount on their bills at up to £100,000, a tax break worth £1.7bn.

[farrugia] 27/10/2021 13:44

Champagne capitalist: Rishi Sunak announces sweeping changes to alcohol duties
Rishi Sunak is also cheered as he turns to alcohol duties, which he says he is able to "radically simplify" thanks to Brexit.

The number of rates will be "slashed" from 15 to six "designed around a common-sense principle: the stronger the drink, the higher the rate", the Chancellor says.

Stronger red wines, fortified wines, or high-strength white ciders will see a "small increase", which Mr Sunak said would help address public health and problem drinking.

But he adds: "Many lower alcohol drinks are currently overtaxed - and have been for many decades. Rose, fruit ciders, liqueurs, lower strength beers and wines - today's changes mean they will pay less."

He also announces proposals for a new small producer relief, extending it to small cidermakers and other producers making alcoholic drinks of less than 8.5 per cent.

And, reflecting the fact that drinking sparkling wine is "no longer the preserve of wealthy elites", he announces the end to the "the irrational duty premium of 28 per cent".

[adobbing] 26/10/2021 13:40

Yep,

LFL sales (%) vs 2019 comparable for the 15 weeks from 17 May to 29 August 2021

Wagamama;
(TRG) LFL sales + 21%
(Market) LFL sales +8%
Outperformance vs market +13%

Pubs;
(TRG) LFL sales + 12%
(Market) LFL sales (2)%
Outperformance vs market +14%

Leisure;
(TRG) LFL sales +18%
(Market) LFL sales +8%
Outperformance vs market +10%

Concessions;
(TRG) LFL sales (53)%
(Market) LFL sales (74)%
Outperformance vs market +21%

Source
Page 3

[farrugia] 26/10/2021 12:51

RTN also has Wagamama which is trading well.

its the concessions business that has been lagging:

'The international travel sector remains incredibly challenging due to ongoing changes in Government restrictions and the associated cost of PCR testing.

We continue to focus on a measured re-opening programme, only opening in locations with sufficient passenger volumes to support positive EBITDA delivery. We have achieved more flexible terms with the vast majority of airport partners with regards to minimum guaranteed rents (MGRs) and mothballing fees. In addition, we have flexed our operating hours to match departing flight times to minimise costs whilst ensuring we offer a great service.'

With increased travelling and lower testing requirements we can assume that the concessions business will be improving.

[john09] 25/10/2021 21:04

Ok maybe stfu til we reach 60p then

[mashman] 25/10/2021 20:12

Are there only you two defenders? Yes I want in, for B&P, but technically there is a good chance of this going sub 60p and they have a lot to do to stop it. Around 60 and I’m a buyer

[adobbing] 25/10/2021 19:32

That “one cog in a big wheel” represents 78 out of 400 sites and outperformed the market by 14%
I’d say it’s a bit more than “one cog” and they’re opening plenty more sites this year and next!

[john09] 25/10/2021 18:36

Mash just wants it a bit cheaper . He wants in .

I’m not in. I would buy cheaper too but plenty of bargains around

[mashman] 25/10/2021 18:34

Yes, but that’s B&P, one cog in a big wheel and the best thing they have,