Renishaw Share Discussion Threads

[sleveen] 24/1/2009 09:23

DR: IMS reads

Profit before tax amounted to
GBP14.0m, compared with GBP15.1m. Profit after tax was GBP11.2m (2007 GBP12.1m), giving earnings per share of 15.4p (2007 16.6p).

IMHO if we reasonably assume that the second half is going to be worse than the first half(the first quarter results were excellent see AGM statement)and lets also reasonably assume that eps for 2nd half are say 10p this give FY total of 25p resulting in forecast PE of 14 @350p. For a company that has gone ex growth even though it has world class products a PE of 14 is way overvalued and IMHO the share price is likely to fall monday and continue to fall until say 200p giving a PE of 8.

Interesting recovery in the last half hour yesterday : dead cat bounce IMV.

L G: I bought back in at 475p I tried to trade these with a view to riding an upswing in anticipation of decent result next week. As I posted earlier this week, I noticed a change in trend and sold at 450p tuesday for a small loss. Phew.Shows the importance of having a stop loss.
LG what's your view of my analysis?

As always DYOR and the above is my opinion only

GL all RSW holders

[lord gnome] 23/1/2009 18:10

Funny how it happens sleveen. You watch the price drip away while those in the know bail out, and then 'bang' you get an RNS like this that explains everything and the floor collapses under the share price. I've seen it many times before, but it is difficult to spot in advance.
At least I've avoided another expensive mistake - I've had my fair share of those this last year.
BearBull in today's Investors Chronicle was not so lucky. He has just bought £20,000 worth for the income portfolio. Kiss of death?

[dennis russell] 23/1/2009 17:06

good buying opportunity - tuck in and lock away till the dust settles. Interesting how much difference the exchange rate has made to the result. Other companies with a lot of dollar / yen business? I can think of CEL, AHT, WOS. Any more, please?

[sleveen] 23/1/2009 15:49

LG:Profit warning on the way by any chance?

Good call

Edit: Which makes me think that if such good companies like RSW hit the buffers, I wonder if other companies with markets in hi-tech instrumentation eg OXIG will be affected in the same way?

[lord gnome] 22/1/2009 16:11

You're not wrong sleveen. Drip, drip, drip. Profit warning on the way by any chance? Hopefully just market weakness, but you can never be sure. I have these on my watchlist. No position at present, but looking for an excuse to buy. Can't see one at present.

[sleveen] 20/1/2009 17:23

By the look of the chart this is going to fall further IMHO.

[sleveen] 14/1/2009 13:59

interims due 28.1.2009 might give a steer for the rest of the FY.

[stevenlondon3] 14/1/2009 10:24

My attention was drawn to this company by the investor chronic- it looks interesting.

However looking at digital look forecasts
2008A 45.9p
2009E 47.6p
2010E 46.3p
It is not an inspiring trend and in these markets makes the stock look expensive.

[sleveen] 07/1/2009 21:09

£ recovering against the $ and Euro recently may have influenced the share price slide

[9degrees] 07/1/2009 20:58

Partly with the market and partly results due later this month- a mixed bag no doubt of good news and not such good news?

[philo124] 07/1/2009 16:58

Bit of a mystery why this fell 10% today.

[9degrees] 07/1/2009 10:18

Why all these small trades both yesterday and today?
Are these employees share schemes or something and they have inside knowledge of pending results?

[chrisgail] 19/12/2008 21:14

For a company that gets most of its sales by exporting to Yen & Dollar trading countries, the falling share price looks strange. Yes, I'm sure sales are down, but margins will not be. A sound company (with heaps and heaps of cash) at a very attractive price.

[sleveen] 30/10/2008 10:05

Looks like the market disagrees with my view now that a tentative recovery is underway.

I think you need to look at the AR to guestimate an answer to your question. Nerosurgery/dental would seem resilient but I'm not so sure about the other busineses that are focused on manufacturing/capital goods.

As ever IMHO and DYOR

[mr. t] 30/10/2008 08:36

Hi sleveen,

Thanks for you thoughts and the figures. Do you know much about Renishaw's business model and their markets? How resilient is their turnover and margins to any downturn?

Cheers,

T

[sleveen] 28/10/2008 17:08

current year broker forecast put the forward PE at about 10, IMHO share price could drop to a PE of 7 implying a share price of 350p.

I think this time will be far worse than 2001-03.

As ever DYOR and GL

[mr. t] 28/10/2008 16:27

Hello,

Have you any idea how Renishaw's business may cope with the current downturn?

Renishaw looks a fantastic company to me at a great price. It is a little different to many other of todays beaten up companies because of a combination of:

a) it is market leading, with excellent profit margins
b) it is trading well, and the recent exchange rate trend helps more
c) it has plenty of net cash
d) it has an excellent track record

It seems like the company struggled a lot in the early 2000s, do any of you know why and if things will be different this time?

Thanks in advance for your help.

T

[callumross] 27/10/2008 11:12

crazy the way this one has trade down 15% in the last couple of days - the upbeat trading statement was only 2 weeks ago and since then the tumbling £ is surely manna from heaven for RSW!

[sleveen] 23/10/2008 16:49

Cheers Pug...wish I'd done the same on a few others:-(

I still think that RSW is a great company and definitelty worth reinvestment once the financial dust settles down.

as ever DYOR and I hope DR sold as well?

[pugugly] 23/10/2008 12:42

sleveen:> Well done on taking the profit. Now down by 250p. sorry for all holders - Looking at the graph could still ahve some way to fall. (imo & dyor)

[pp100644] 14/10/2008 10:04

It's got a lot of cash.
Good order book.
The increase in the dollar will help greatly!

[pp100644] 14/10/2008 09:08

Wow fantastic results and a strong orderbook. This company seems recession proof. There is no justification for the drop in the share price, it's just the influence of the wider economy.

[sleveen] 04/9/2008 18:43

Stake building perhaps or recognition of decent results.

I only sold at 800p for a small profit, but looking on the bright side its better than the loss I was sitting on when the share price was 600p July 2007....a profit's a profit after all.

DR I'd think about taking a tidy profit.. BWTFDIK

Edit:No advice intended DYOR

[dennis russell] 04/9/2008 13:37

RSW has quietly bucked the trend to grow in value by 20% over the last few weeks. OK, it's a cracking company - but a lot of cracking companies, (look at CEL) are not seeing any increase. What's going on?

[sleveen] 23/7/2008 08:08

hi

Last year's basic results were distorted by £19.4m pension credit. Look at the adjusted figures.