Redt Energy Share Discussion Threads

[alchemy] 02/1/2018 16:24

That's down on Owenski's 340 with open book reasoning.So still looking for views on Camco contribution plus views on 2018 opex.See you tomorrow guys.

[alchemy] 02/1/2018 16:22

Taken that exchange rate.So we need just over 200 shipments to cover a 2 million spend.

[fieldhouse] 02/1/2018 16:11

1.24 euros =pound Alchemy

[alchemy] 02/1/2018 15:34

That means , for example, a £2.4 million overall spend needs 300 sales.So this where my request for views on the time between book and ship comes in. It also my slight timing issue on this year's figures. An order when shipped can be invoiced and go into the P/L.If our time to do that is 8 months and we now have 50 orders, we need 250 more sales. In four months. So now over to you for any input on that. So on Camco if anyone has a good handle on the contribution they make I'll plug it in. As to maintenance , Installation , trading fees etc I'll leave those as an upside for now if I may?

[alchemy] 02/1/2018 15:23

Yes benign extra flows and Camco. , thanks guys I'll come to those.I would like now to nudge towards price. Owenski gives us but one variable margin . I'm trying to edge towards other parameters.Also I want my model to be "sandbagged" . I can upgrade it later after allThe Commercial Update given at the AGM talks of 265 tanks worth circa 15.9 million. That gives a price per tank of 60k. But that's in Euros, quite why , who knows, but moving on, I have taken a conservative price of £40k but with as mentioned the same %age margin of 20% but the absolute falls from euros twelve to pounds eight. So that is truly sandbagged!So I can now multiply tanks by £8k to get contribution.I can also get break even number of tanks by dividing opex plus overheads by 8k.You see how much more transparent this model is. I can't see my typing now _ I'll be back.

[pugugly] 02/1/2018 15:05

Looks like a sell tip in the market Now 8.24 offered 8.0p bid.
Anyone seen anything ? Heading back to 6p ?

[fieldhouse] 02/1/2018 14:35

Camco revenue !!

[tradermel] 02/1/2018 13:09

Double post

[tradermel] 02/1/2018 13:08

4863

A little bit frustrated that you make no mention of the after sales when calculating future revenue. At the Investors presentation Scott made it abundantly clear this is where the real profits lay and gave the margins associated with each of the different revenue streams. Cumulatively they added up to much more than 20%. I know each of these will have to be sold to clients and not all will take up each element, but these form ongoing revenue.

[brucie5] 02/1/2018 11:01

I look forward to seeing that, Alchemy. I think it's useful to hear Owenski's concerns in the meantime. The market is, as Alchemy points out, valuing this on potential, not earnings. I hold this and ITM, though have dipped in and out of both, guided by the chart. I would say that the next move is more likely to be up than down. We last retraced to 7p, before it spiked upwards, and since then we've had the RNS about government policy on relative efficiency of storage/batteries, which has surely created a different kind of credibility around REDT's tech. Overall, I see an extended pennant within a bullish 5 year trend. Too slow for some, I realise, but if the business plan works, the curve upwards will become exponential over the next two years. HNY!

[alchemy] 02/1/2018 10:51

Independently of owenski I have taken a 20 percent margin.It's a parameter given plausibility by AGM attendees. It was a bit rich of him to take any parameter given the stick he's given other posters.My model says with 340 tanks we clear a small profit of £720k.It gets more exciting if you triple that 340 though for say the next year.I have parameters for turnover per tank . I'd welcome your views on them. I'll fill out those assumptions later today. One of the key things we don't really know is the time from book to ship.I'll return to that next post too. Gla.

[alchemy] 02/1/2018 08:55

Observations during the festive season.I wrote about the December 15 th that I was prepared for few , if any, fireworks over the Christmas and New Year period. I was also happy to be unsettled by any fireworks that happened along and ignited. However all I did in the end was have a holiday from posting about Redt but thought about the company a great deal, its position and read the few links that were posted.I also put together a spreadsheet modelling as best I could The what ifs? as Redt's order book improves. I'll return to that today.All the preconditions for Redt to reach a high value seem, to me, to be in place. When does that high value start and how high can it go?To answer this I started thinking of the order book and, heavens above, as stated above, built a spreadsheet.The value right now gives a Marcap of circa £55million and that is high in its own right. Potential is keeping us that high not current financial performance. The uplift comes , will come, as actual performance replaces some potential and visibility of even more potential shines through. And my view of bulletin boards that they should be helpful and collegiate means I'd like to share one" worry" with you It's a timing concern not a concern about our eventual destination. Observations during the festive season.I wrote about the December 15 th that I was prepared for few fireworks over the Christmas and New Year period. I was also happy to be unsettled by any fireworks that ignited. However all I did in the end was have a holiday about posting about Redt. , but I thought about the company a great deal, its position and read the few links that were posted.I also put together a spreadsheet modelling as best I could The what ifs as Redts order book improves. I'll return to that today.All the preconditions for Redt to reach a high value seem, to me, to be in place. When does that high value start and how high can it go?To answer this I started thinking of the order book and, heavens above, as stated above, built a spreadsheet.The value right now gives a Marcap of circa £55million and that is high in its own right. Potential is keeping us that high not current financial performance. The uplift comes , will come, as actual performance replaces some potential and visibility of even more potential shines through. And my view of bulletin boards that they should be helpful and collegiate means I d like to share one" worry" with you It's a timing concern not a concern about our eventual destination.

[netcurtains] 02/1/2018 06:51

owenski I guess buys on the dips and sells and the rises and hopes his posts create deeper dips.. But bottom line, judging by posts, owenski is a buyer of the share.
Nothing else makes rational sense.

[pierre oreilly] 02/1/2018 00:08

here's a question for you, how many barrels of oil do bp have to sell to cover operational costs?

here's another, why do you keep posting nonsensical questions on a company you don't own, and don't appear to want to own?

you really are starting to appear a bit weird owen.

[owenski] 01/1/2018 20:07

Here's a question for you, how many unit sales do you calculate REDt need to make to cover operating costs, fairly straightforward question for any investor who wants to invest and not gamble.

[owenski] 01/1/2018 19:54

You can work out the calcs from the table on the interims showing units with costs

The company running costs are also given, so it's just arithmetic to work out unit sales, the margins however are from posters on this thread who often quote between 15 and 25%, I opted for the mid range of 20%.

Finally, go to BrrMedia for the latest - Dec - overview of REDt in which the CEO states specifically the CNA part of the energy trading profit.

Maybe show your calculations, it's your punt after all, but I doubt if you're up for some simple arithmetic.

[tradermel] 01/1/2018 18:51

Centrica are providing the trading of electricity at Olde House and RedT get a very good percentage of the profits on this. Wrong again, please try to get something correct in 2018, it gets boring correcting your misinformation.

Show us your calcs on the 340 units owenski ... oh wait just more BS isn't it!!!

[owenski] 31/12/2017 20:05

By my reckoning, they need to sell in the region of 340 units just to pay the wage bill. Lot more sales required to make investment returns to shareholders.

RED also very specifically state that 'their partner CNA' is trading electricity from the Olde House, so this is not an ongoing revenue stream for RED, that's if these machines were actually sold to Olde House.

Could still be a few years of loss making ahead for RED, and no guarantees that they become a success, lots of other players out there with deeper pockets.

[rovi70] 31/12/2017 11:55

its just another view but their graphics are easy on the brain.

[the stigologist] 31/12/2017 01:57

Never take any notice

[pugugly] 30/12/2017 19:51

How do people rate Simply Wall Street and their past history ?

[hybrasil] 30/12/2017 18:51

This share looks like another version of snooze box
Same containers! Just storing energy instead of humans and not that I can see at a great price.
It strikes me as a bit micky mouse in what is a very grown up world.