Rbg Share Discussion Threads

[aspect100] 08/5/2023 19:16

When is XD day?

Would this be the reason why there was a lot of sells on the 5th - this was the day stated in the accounts as the record day on the register.

I can't seem to find anything in the results about XD day.

[ggrantsu] 06/5/2023 14:44

At the end of the day...there is nothing to particularly absolutely love about this business...but regardless of compensation levels the business is incredibly cheap and has a lot of optionality with litigation cases in house. It's an investment more based on value being way off what is fair vs. an incredible business. But it's a simple model and they have some market leading metrics...at these levels its worth an investment.

I'd stupidly first looked at this at 38p and thought I should go for it but held off and held off...finally took my chance yesterday on the drop and feel pretty happy. If a few things go right...could honestly be a 3x investment over two years in my opinion. Multiple re-rating, growing earnings and margins, and all the added upside from litigation cases. PLus the cash coming in from Lionfish...it's just too cheap where it is right now.

[scubadiverr] 05/5/2023 17:55

I think I've found the reason for the fall... It's been tipped by a Motley Fool writerhttps://www.fool.co.uk/2023/05/05/1-penny-stock-under-52p-that-id-buy-today/

[johndoe23] 05/5/2023 17:52

I just wouldn't invest here, the remuneration is absurd

[jimic23] 05/5/2023 17:06

Guess somebody really didn't like the Progressive note that dropped this afternoon

[qs99] 05/5/2023 15:39

Indeed, looks like a few sellers out in force today DYOR

[elsa7878] 05/5/2023 09:15

Surprised to see Convex is costing them £3.5 million pa in salaries plus additional costs (rent etc), so could be close to £4 million. Edit: ongoing salaries and overheads are £2 million a year, the additional is bonuses.

[tradingcoder] 04/5/2023 16:26

Definitely DYOR lot of people on here trying to get out of a loss

[qs99] 04/5/2023 09:03

Looks like a pause until next news flow .....DYOR, ahead of next "known" dates, anything around this level IMO looks like a good entry point, with yield as we head back to previous trading ranges of 70-80p and then back to £1....DYOR and GLA

[kadvfn1] 27/4/2023 15:57

Yes I think 80p is about fair and then divi on top. Nice entry point

[qs99] 27/4/2023 15:06

Actually I think it should get back to 80-90p as my target, DYOR which was before the double fall.

[qs99] 27/4/2023 11:53

Good call Aleman....Recovery and yield....lovely job...DYOR

[aleman] 27/4/2023 08:53

The usual prediction would be a quick rise back to the 200-day average. Meet it somewhere around 65p, maybe? It would still yield nearly 7% there.

[tradingcoder] 27/4/2023 08:09

Didn't this bloke also recommend it when it was over £1? Pinch of salt

[paleje] 27/4/2023 07:39

Thanks Scuba, Simon Thompson's report makes good reading I've pasted his conclusion.



......Although challenging market conditions in the second half of last year led to deferral of deal completions and meant that Convex only completed six deals and delivered revenue of £5.3mn in 2022, down from 14 deals and £9.4mn revenue in 2021, the business has a strong pipeline of 24 deals, with a number in advanced stages of completion. This augurs well for the future and adds weight to house broker Singer Capital Markets’ forecast that RBG can deliver current-year pre-tax profit of £10.2mn on slightly higher revenue of £52mn. On this basis, and factoring in a higher tax rate, expect EPS of 8p and a dividend per share of 4.5p, implying the shares are rated on a prospective price/earnings (PE) ratio of six and offer a 9 per cent forward dividend yield.

Importantly, the new board is committed to reducing RBG’s net debt of £19.2mn and should make significant inroads this year with the benefit of projected free cash flow of £4.8mn and cash from the sale of LionFish – the unit has £5.3mn of litigation investments and £1.7mn of liabilities excluding £4.7mn owed to the group. Analysts expect net debt to be slashed to £16.6mn by the year-end

Although it’s early days, the attractions of a 52 per cent discount to the peer group average PE ratio of 13 and a sector-leading dividend yield make RBG’ shares a recovery buy.

[scubadiverr] 26/4/2023 17:23

A recovery stock on a 9% dividend yield

[scubadiverr] 26/4/2023 17:22

Anyone wanting to read the IC piece might want to Google "A recovery stock on a 9% dividend yield"

[aleman] 26/4/2023 17:22

You quoted figures of 7.1p EPS and 4.2p dividend from Stifel for 2023. The slightly higher figures for 2023 in the IC article are quoted from Singer.

[elsa7878] 26/4/2023 17:16

I put the figures out on March 1st.

[aleman] 26/4/2023 17:00

Investors Chronicle agrees with you/us.

IC quotes EPS of 8p and a dividend per share of 4.5p to come this year, with debt cut to £16.6m, suggesting the RBGP rating is only half its peers and makes them a recovery buy at 50p.

[qs99] 26/4/2023 13:00

IMO just looks the wrong price....£15m EBITDA, c.£41m market cap, £20m (say) of net debt hopefully being paid down and litigation sale may help get that down more....DYOR

[kadvfn1] 26/4/2023 12:07

yep good meeting and CEO comes across very well. Clear up alot of uncertainty and their goals seems to be aling with PIs. Usually takes Investor meet a day or so to post the link. As a reminder, the Q&A that they post afterward also worth a check as every company seems to give a more expanded answers when they have time to think about it. I didn't noticed that til recently

[aleman] 26/4/2023 11:47

I take take it take InvestorMeet presentation has gone very well. I've not seen it. A link is usually available pretty quickly. It would be useful to post it if anyone finds it, please.

[kadvfn1] 26/4/2023 11:29

agreed aleman. CEO batted those questions well and looks like they will carry on with divi which is nice to hear. Another strong year this year (with cash coming from sale of lionfish) and we could be heading back up toward 80p which imo is a first step to major rerate

[aleman] 26/4/2023 10:27

It the narrative and numbers are genuine, this looks well undervalued.


At the last trading update, trading was said to be in line with expectations, which were:

(1) RBG understands that consensus market expectations for the year ended 31 December 2022 are for revenues of GBP49.5 million, Adj. EBITDA of GBP11.2 million and Adj. PBT of GBP6.9 million (Source: FactSet)


Actual numbers reported look to be considerably better?

Group revenue (including gains on litigation assets) up 25.6% to GBP54.1m (2021: GBP43.1m)
-- Adjusted EBITDA up 54.2% to GBP15.8m (2021: GBP10.3m)
-- Adjusted profit before tax up 66.3% to GBP10.9m (2021: GBP6.6m)
-- Non-recurring costs of GBP1.2m (2021: GBP0.9m)
-- EBITDA up 55.5% to GBP14.6m (2021: GBP9.4m)
-- Profit before tax up 70.4% to GBP9.7m (2021: GBP5.7m)
-- Profit from continuing operations up 76.8% to GBP7.8m (2021: GBP4.4m)
-- Loss on discontinued operations, net of tax GBP(4.0)m (2021: Profit GBP2.8m)
-- Profit for the year (including discontinued operations) of GBP3.8m (2021: GBP7.3m)
-- Adjusted free cashflow generation GBP4.0m (2021: GBP6.4m)
-- Net debt of GBP19.2m (2021: GBP14.4m)