Rbg Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 26/4/2023 16:00

Investors Chronicle agrees with you/us.

IC quotes EPS of 8p and a dividend per share of 4.5p to come this year, with debt cut to £16.6m, suggesting the RBGP rating is only half its peers and makes them a recovery buy at 50p.

[qs99] 26/4/2023 12:00

IMO just looks the wrong price....£15m EBITDA, c.£41m market cap, £20m (say) of net debt hopefully being paid down and litigation sale may help get that down more....DYOR

[kadvfn1] 26/4/2023 11:07

yep good meeting and CEO comes across very well. Clear up alot of uncertainty and their goals seems to be aling with PIs. Usually takes Investor meet a day or so to post the link. As a reminder, the Q&A that they post afterward also worth a check as every company seems to give a more expanded answers when they have time to think about it. I didn't noticed that til recently

[aleman] 26/4/2023 10:47

I take take it take InvestorMeet presentation has gone very well. I've not seen it. A link is usually available pretty quickly. It would be useful to post it if anyone finds it, please.

[kadvfn1] 26/4/2023 10:29

agreed aleman. CEO batted those questions well and looks like they will carry on with divi which is nice to hear. Another strong year this year (with cash coming from sale of lionfish) and we could be heading back up toward 80p which imo is a first step to major rerate

[aleman] 26/4/2023 09:27

It the narrative and numbers are genuine, this looks well undervalued.


At the last trading update, trading was said to be in line with expectations, which were:

(1) RBG understands that consensus market expectations for the year ended 31 December 2022 are for revenues of GBP49.5 million, Adj. EBITDA of GBP11.2 million and Adj. PBT of GBP6.9 million (Source: FactSet)


Actual numbers reported look to be considerably better?

Group revenue (including gains on litigation assets) up 25.6% to GBP54.1m (2021: GBP43.1m)
-- Adjusted EBITDA up 54.2% to GBP15.8m (2021: GBP10.3m)
-- Adjusted profit before tax up 66.3% to GBP10.9m (2021: GBP6.6m)
-- Non-recurring costs of GBP1.2m (2021: GBP0.9m)
-- EBITDA up 55.5% to GBP14.6m (2021: GBP9.4m)
-- Profit before tax up 70.4% to GBP9.7m (2021: GBP5.7m)
-- Profit from continuing operations up 76.8% to GBP7.8m (2021: GBP4.4m)
-- Loss on discontinued operations, net of tax GBP(4.0)m (2021: Profit GBP2.8m)
-- Profit for the year (including discontinued operations) of GBP3.8m (2021: GBP7.3m)
-- Adjusted free cashflow generation GBP4.0m (2021: GBP6.4m)
-- Net debt of GBP19.2m (2021: GBP14.4m)

[qs99] 26/4/2023 08:10

Results look decent IMO.....getting back to core focus will help IR message IMO.....offloading and paying down debt of litigation arm likewise. DYOR

[kadvfn1] 26/4/2023 07:37

Think the results looks reasonable. Hopefully recovery will be in full swing

[riverman77] 13/4/2023 19:03

Thanks for the info. I hold BUR and think the comparison is apt - will take a closer look (I did hold RBGP a couple of years ago but never really looked into rhe litigation side).

[scubadiverr] 13/4/2023 18:11

Neptune 4.2m
Shango 75m
Mercury 65m

Thats a potential total recovery of £144.2mn according to their historic slides. I see these amounts as headline figures, so assume they only recover 66% of the headline amounts and then account for the historic win rate of 87% on contingent cases (from what I recall), I get a value of £83.6mn.

142.2 x 0.666 x 0.87 = 83.55

Current mcap is what, 37m? Hopefully you can see why I compare to Burford and YPF, yet these recoveries don't add the same risk to the balance sheet as aren't FV'd, like Petersen, should they not conclude in favourable judgments.

[riverman77] 13/4/2023 17:43

Do we have any rough idea what these cases could be worth?

[qs99] 13/4/2023 16:55

that would be the icing on the cake maybe!

[scubadiverr] 13/4/2023 12:42

And let's not forget the potential value of the elephantine cases. They could well be worth more than the current share price alone. A lot like Burford and YPF

[qs99] 13/4/2023 12:09

Lovely bowl forming, should be back past 80p IMO on a decent trading update & concentrate on the lawyering not the speculative litigation stuff....DYOR

[jonwig] 12/4/2023 11:32

Aeonflux - I don't think IanR has the firepower to go private: 18% holding or so. Almost half the shares are held by institutions, and Nicola Foulston still has her 12mn, I'd guess.

[aeonflux] 12/4/2023 11:10

Looks like it's moving up

[qs99] 12/4/2023 10:17

Looks oversold IMO.....hope this is the start of a nice bowl! DYOR

[aeonflux] 06/4/2023 14:27

Has there been any mention of considering that so far? Might make sense.

[quepassa] 06/4/2023 14:26

what's your opinion on that topic please?

[qs99] 06/4/2023 14:17

Anyone think they may take this private? DYOR

[quepassa] 20/3/2023 16:42

well two other posters recently said it was cheap/tempting at 50p.

and that just was within the last few weeks - since which time it has tumbled a whopping 20% or more.

sometimes when things are cheap, they sometimes can have a nasty habit of getting cheaper.



good luck all.


all imo. dyor.
qp

[aeonflux] 20/3/2023 16:16

I think this is a good turnaround stock, once they get the issues with the ex-CEO sorted we may see the share price start to turn. Everyone has good things to say about their companies such as Convex.

With a PE ratio of 5.4 and PEG of 0.2 its cheap.

[quepassa] 20/3/2023 15:12

At 40p , a new ALL TIME LOW.


The share price has tumbled another 25% in just a few weeks.

all imo. dyor.
qp