Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[stemis] 02/11/2023 14:53

Not sure what relevance that has to RAVP

[pbaker] 02/11/2023 14:30

Look at any stats, they can be made to tell you whatever you want. Euro inflation is just 4.3% HICP. There is deflation in The Netherlands 0.3% deflation? Though talk to most people and they will tell you inflation in most basic goods is near 8%. So the EU inflation is without doubt the biggest load of BS. Though if you discount most things that are going up and give a larger weighting to things going down, hey presto The EU has low inflation. Now thats Magic.

[hindsight] 02/11/2023 12:06

Before even debate how much data is doctored, there is a reason why they have 15% base rates and large scale currency controls

[stemis] 02/11/2023 11:44

Does anyone really trust the economic data that comes out of Russia?

[pbaker] 02/11/2023 10:27

Sanctions on a country the size of Russia, mostly effect those putting the sanctions on Russia. India and most of Asia and China continue to trade with no restrictions. So they are still trading easily with most of the world.
Find a solution to the war, have Peace. Pay my dividends.

[ramellous] 02/11/2023 06:16

Sanctions not really having much effect?

Russia

Corporate profits (August) rose to Ruble 21.4 trillion from Ruble 18.6 trillion higher than expected Ruble 20.8 trillion

Real wage growth (August) 9.5% year-on-year up from 9.2% above expected 8.5%

Unemployment (September) unchanged at 3% but expected to rise to 3.1%

Business confidence (October) rose to 4.6 from 4.4 as expected

[dandigirl] 11/10/2023 17:46

pbaker: Sorry, but your comments regarding electronic banking and ease of finding an auditor suggest you are very naive.

If only things were as easy as you suggest.

[gfrae] 11/10/2023 16:51

Evraz is unable to appoint an auditor,therfore not surprising Raven having difficulty. presumably a top quality auditor is required.

[pbaker] 11/10/2023 16:13

On the point of auditors, there are some auditors who will sign of on anything, Pollypeck,Quindell, etc etc. So finding an auditor should be no issue, especially a one man band on the mean streets of Abu.

[xasy] 11/10/2023 11:07

Dear Shareholder,
The following is a short update on the Company and its principal investment. Accessing value from our preference share and loan instruments
remains extremely difficult and we continue to investigate all possible avenues. The good news however is that the underlying investee business
continues to trade above expectations.
The Russian owners have renamed the business Phoenix Property Group (“Phoenix̶1;), although still trading as Raven Russia on the ground.
Their portfolio trades at around 97% occupancy and market rents continue to increase. Local agent consensus has Moscow dry warehouse rents
at R6,900 per sqm today, compared to R5,500 per sqm at 31 December 2022, an increase of 25%.
Phoenix has also completed a full re-domiciliation of its Cypriot holding companies to the ADGM in Abu Dhabi.
The downside for the portfolio has been the Central Bank of Russia interest rate hikes to 13% following high inflation and the rapid devaluation
of the rouble in the last six months. This will eat into profitability and the group’s net asset position in the coming twelve months. We understand
that local banking relationships remain strong and the group is operating within its covenant requirements, even with these headwinds.
We, at Raven Property Group, continue to work with our UK advisers to navigate the sanctions terrain and the passing of control to the Russian
team has put us in the best position possible at this time. The main issue we have is that counterparties, both here and in Russia, are reluctant to
be involved in any cross border movement of funds out of Russia, even though we are advised that there are no sanction prohibitions in our case.
We have also begun investigating the possibility of re-domiciling the Company to the ADGM to source a wider pool of counterparties willing to
engage with us.
We are in the process of appointing new auditors, armed with strong advice that there is no legal reason for a firm to refuse our account and
we are hopeful that we can have a set of 2022 financial statements to issue to you in the coming months.
I also take this opportunity to remind shareholders that the Company has a share trading facility using a monthly matched bargain process.
Details of the facility are explained on our website in the “InvestorsR21; section. One trade has been settled in the year so far.
I look forward to issuing a fuller statement accompanied by a set of audited 2022 financial statements.
We continue to pray for peace.
Michael Hough
Chairman

[gfrae] 11/10/2023 10:35

Presumably it is sanctions by both Russia and the West which causes the difficulty in moving funds and appointing auditors. There are no sanctions in or on ADGM companies as I understand, therefore financial institutions should be prepared to deal with Phoenix.

[drradcliffe] 11/10/2023 10:15

I'm sure Michael is talking about redomiciling the Raven Property Group to the Abu Dhabi ADGM. It appears while Raven is in the UK, it doesn't have access to counterparties who'd be prepared to carry out cross border transactions that originate in Russia. That potentially changes if Raven Property Group moves to ADGM. That's how I read it anyway...

[stemis] 10/10/2023 20:25

The ADGM has banks which are more likely than most to be willing to accept a transfer of funds from Russia. Re-locating there will give better access to those banks.

I think you have misunderstood. Raven aren't going to receive funds from Russia. It's Raven Russia (Holdings) Cyprus Limited (renamed Phoenix Property Group), now owned by Raven's Russian ex management team, who'll receive the funds. They are already domiciled to the ADGM.

[dandigirl] 10/10/2023 20:02

pbaker: In theory, I agree. In practice, I don't.

For something like this, eyeball to eyeball is the way to go and that includes eyeball to eyeball in Moscow. There is a huge element of trust in what is required here and that cannot be moved electronically.

and as regards your note to mrf, if they had wanted to do that, it could have been done months ago.

Take the gloomy view as you wish but I prefer to give the board the benefit of doubt in the hope that this could all turn up for the better.

[pbaker] 10/10/2023 19:21

Dandigirl. In this day and age why does the company need to change its status, most things are just electronic transactions. If the company can open an account with an ADGM bank, then they could do that from Cyprus or Jersey.
My retirement fund. The Russian management could mop up the prefs at 1p and own the company with no outstanding payments that would be a legal master stroke for them.
Alternatively they could just do some cheeky deal where they just ignore all creditors outside of Russia, it would not be the first time.
I kick myself for not selling at the first sign of trouble.

[dandigirl] 10/10/2023 18:45

The ADGM has banks which are more likely than most to be willing to accept a transfer of funds from Russia. Re-locating there will give better access to those banks.

Give the Board members some credit; they are trying to find legal ways of transferring funds out of Russia.

If you have any better ideas, I am sure they would appreciate hearing from you.

[my retirement fund] 10/10/2023 18:41

Yes, it's 50/50. Who's going to prop their currency up? Could go a lot lower, and in any case at current stress levels, many businesses eventually go bust. Russia is a basket case unless it can do a long-term deal and pretty much sells itself to China. Actually, I wouldn't bid 1p, I'm being daft!

[my retirement fund] 10/10/2023 18:37

I may pit in a cheeky bid for a 100,000 worth at 1p

[hindsight] 10/10/2023 17:51

Without more information its unclear if they will survive or not
Rents rising but so are interest rates. 1 Year Russian bond now at 17%
All depends what is fixed, in lease terms and borrowing

From 2021 accounts
The Group's interest bearing loans and borrowings have a weighted average interest
rate of 6.37% (2020: 5.48%) and a weighted average term to maturity of 3.8
years (2020: 4.1 years).

[gfrae] 10/10/2023 16:28

p have just seen your post....I am 100% sure you could get 1p for your prefs !

[gfrae] 10/10/2023 16:25

200,000 odd shares traded at 5.1p in June, see website.
As the letter says legally they can transfer funds to Abu Dhabi but financial institutions reluctant to make these transaction at the moment.
Funds can leave Russia ($253 bn has left Russia in the last year alone).
Likewise for the audit, it is legal for accountants to do the audit, but firms may be reluctant to do so.
Underlying business is doing well we hear.
On the whole sounds encouraging.
Is anyone thinking of selling or buying on the matched bargain set up ?
(purely out of interest)

[pbaker] 10/10/2023 16:23

Stemis you have a good point, seems like a waste of money. In all honesty all any holder wants (other than peace) is another interest payment. The shares relisted for easy trading and a profitable outcome. I hope for all of these but expect none. Once a share is delisted it is usually an end for small shareholders.
I hold some Polo resources in my pension and you can find little or no information.
The future sounds positive you do not normally go bust with 97% occupancy with increasing rents, though never say never.
The odds of even another 1p per share seem slim this year if ever.
Though I am feeling very negative about all my shares at the moment.

[stemis] 10/10/2023 15:44

I don't really understand the need to redomicile Raven to ADGM. The company's only interest is in preference shares and debt with Phoenix (now owned by Russian ex mgt team). Phoenix is already domiciled in ADGM. If Phoenix can get funds out of Russia then there is no reason it can't pay preference dividends to Raven. If it can't, then redomiciling Raven to ADGM isn't going to make any difference...

[cc2014] 10/10/2023 15:23

Kenny exited before the shares were suspended.