Pv Crystalox Solar Share Discussion Threads

[konradpuss] 03/9/2020 05:21

gb I would not descibe the paper as fancy.

I would think some broker will offer a trading ability on a matched bargain basis.

You pay a high price for a 'cherry' consensus.

The birds are in the bush here, will they come out?

[gbjbaanb] 02/9/2020 22:06

There will not be an after market, one private you shares are only tradeable if you can find someone to buy them. So you're taking a risk that the company will wind itself up, if it doesn't, then you're stuck with some fancy paper.

[konradpuss] 02/9/2020 18:38

30 50 20, thank you and very informative.

If I were more confident I would tender 25 to 30% however in the current climate I am tending 50% and will monitor the after market where ever that will be quoted.

[konradpuss] 02/9/2020 16:56

30 50 20, the change of control provisions on losses are very onerous. I am sorry to say I would put past losses in at zero.

I have never attended a P.V. AGM, did you get a good feeling of the chief executive?

They always say paper records are best in judging a person mind.

[zcaprd7] 02/9/2020 15:57

Yes, I tend to agree, before the last payout, I was thinking we'd be a £1.50 a share by the end game...

[thirty fifty twenty] 02/9/2020 15:40

opps sorry zcaprd - rushed with euro and GBP.
NAV pre tender = 100c,
if half shares bgt at 55p (say 60c),
then NAV increases to 120c - i think fair to say that is fact.
in my own analysis - i think they have large provisions accrued - i presume for wind up costs - almost £1m so i think there will be some release there,
and also i think the tens of millions of P&M fully written down is worth something as well - as per AGM conversations mid 2019 which i attended.

[zcaprd7] 02/9/2020 10:18

Nav at 140c after the tender? Have you taken off the cash to pay for the tendered shares?

[konradpuss] 02/9/2020 09:10

How do you trade a de-listed stock?

Who will make the market and how will the trade clear?

[thirty fifty twenty] 02/9/2020 09:07

hi zcard7 - what you suggest IMHO is a logical plan. the challenge i would make (as I have made to myself) is why does the plan go tendering 50%. Is it b/c that is a neat fifty-fifty?, or is it because the company suggested tendering 50% ?
as i said, for me, a bit of a head wrecker and i have spent time pondering what does my strategy indicate i should do, rather than what do others want me to do?

if everyone held til the end the tender price is irrelevant.
if you are not able to / dont want to hold an un listed then naturally you are being offered a compromise - i.e. you are being offered a low ball price. the other side of that is that 55p is a floor to the ultimate value (my est. 12-18 mths max)

the directors have decided that £2m is all that is reasonable to return... they have not made it easy to understand why it is £2m and not £3m, and from my own research and analysis i think it is the low end as to what is prudently affordable (makes sense to benefit those that dont tender). so having decided to give back £2m then they need to decide what price and then follows the % everyone is allowed to tender.
from my reading of circular, annual reports + RNS's there is little attempt to explain why tender at 55p for a company with NAV of 100p. Thus i think they opted for a 'very convenient' sell half at 55p. - it is above the current share price and sell half and ride the rest seems a reasonable thing to do.. thus they are able to persuade weak holders to sell out half for 55p when after having done so, the NAV will be 140c per share! and then give a tight timetable of 2 weeks when many will want to sell out the rest.. so again a chance to mop up a further chunk of shares.

I'll be tendering c.25%-30% and may buy back but actually more so depends on performance of LOOP after their results.

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL

[zcaprd7] 02/9/2020 08:28

How about tendering half, and use the money to buy back into any dip?

[thirty fifty twenty] 02/9/2020 07:31

sorry other for O/T

konradpuss - thanks. i also hold ASTO but small %(decent result last week). i will take a look at Mountview. You might like PNS - good record and discount to NAV. I've recently switched into more favoured stocks.

[konradpuss] 01/9/2020 22:00

30 50 20, sorry one more Mountview Estates Plc due to a large discount to NAV (my estimate of NAV mind).

[konradpuss] 01/9/2020 21:47

30 50 20, thank you I will take a look at your holdings.

My only similar holding is Assetco Plc which is a play on a court case. There is only circa 5% free float and it is approaching the end game.

The coming recession will throw up some value I am sure.

I constantly look for 'net, nets' although recently there are almost none unless you like Russianwild west market stocks.

[thirty fifty twenty] 01/9/2020 21:29

thanks Konrad... its a bit of a head wrecker of an investment!

nothing similar - current significant holdings are LOOP, RBGP, PEB, BMS + OPG
all i see as lower risk with material upside potential,
backed by chart patterns.
I am a conservative low risk investor seeking growth from compounding returns etc...

re PVCS, i am tendering between 20% and 33% in different accounts...
i am all for banking gains but also i think (as per analysis above etc..)
that it is staring in the face the value on offer if one looks at balance sheet and circular facts not broker spin etc..

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL

p.s. any interesting similar holding yourself?

[konradpuss] 01/9/2020 21:19

30 50 20, two excellent posts.

Shore Capital are their brokers the last time I looked and, well how do I put this, they are slick.

I do think the management are generally honest, however lead footed and self interested.

I think I am still going to tender 50% and wait.

One bird in the hand and the other currently fatter bird in the bush.

By the way are you holding anything similar?

[thirty fifty twenty] 01/9/2020 20:23

i see all as a real test of investment discipline and character.
i think that risk is all a spectrum.
the directors, i believe, have a self interest, and are greedy,
but are stretching the boundary , as opposed to breaking it.

if they can take out the weak private investors and the institutions that are not interested, it gives them an immediate 40% increase.

i think this is enough and there is no need to then also try and manipulate the remaining shareholders in the private company. re psychology , i think the mgt / CEO want us to tender half. given my analysis i think the best option is to tender less than they want - at least then one is half way between banking some gain and following the CEO.

bizarrely i think after the tender there will be a rush to buy the shares. there will be a number of small pi's looking to sell and these shares will be picked up quickly perhaps as low as 40p i think.. but at the marginal price it makes sense that the insdiers are prepared to offer 60, maybe 70p as the end of september closes as they know buying at that price is a bargain compared to the full liquidation in 12 mths at 100p+ (new shares)

it'll be an intriguing game of cat and mouse...
if lots of pi;s sell out at 55p then the insiders can afford to pay higher at the margin to mop up the remaining shares pre end September, but if lots hold out then they may need to keep spinning the bad news story and do another tender (albeit at a much higher price than the current 55p for listed shares)

i'm lucky that i am sitting on a profit from original purchase, and am prepared to hang around for 12 mths so feel i can have some fun and follow the money / CEO. no doubt there is risk but my instinct tells me that when it looks like a stitch up, it is worth throwing a punch back!

all IMHO, DYOR + BoL
PVCS is in my portfolio

[zcaprd7] 01/9/2020 19:01

An excellent summary, and we are in agreement, but tendering half, and keeping half is not a bad position to take, I am reluctant to do so, but what say will we have once they delist?

[thirty fifty twenty] 01/9/2020 15:27

2009 – I have been pondering what to do re the tender.

Below are my thoughts and conclusions – happy for any input. I have tried to state clearly the difference between what I think is fact and my opinion.

NAV is 7.3m EUR, there is c7.3m shares so for ease we can say current NAV is 100c.
We know the German business is loss-making – say 1m p.a. = 15c
The potential Tax liability is €1.8m = 25c
We know the directors receive an excessive salary for a part-time role £300k p.a.
We know that we don’t have the full information?
i.e.
what is the saleable value of millions of FH written down to zero?
what does the £0.9m of accrued expenses include
how much of the potential tax has been paid on account already to save interest?
why has a hugely loss-making german business not being sold
why does the tender circular not point out the NAV of the company at 100c / 88p when the tender price is 55p?

in most tenders I am familiar with the price is set at a level which indicates what the directors think the company is worth and in my experience they have an optimistic opinion if anything. In theory the 55p tender price does not matter but why was it chosen? The directors make no attempt to explain that the NAV might appear to be 100p but actually 55p is a reasonable value per share. So I have tried to distance myself from being anchored to a price which has no logic and just happens to be above the previous share price and thus might appear to be ‘a premium’. I was a long term shareholder in LEAF and when they resolved their court case dispute the price rose 300% - i.e. the market does not price these situations correctly all of the time.

So the question remains for me – do I sell half at 55p?
So the answer must surely be a resounding ‘no’ when NAV is 100p,
But if we take 1 year of losses, and losing a Tax case = 60c so the 55c is a tempting ‘cash-in-hand offer’
However it allows no probability that there is no liability – if we assume 50%/50% then the worst case NAV becomes 72c / 65p – so 55p does not look attractive. I think however that if the tax was likely to be paid then the auditors would require some provision in the accounts. Remember that the legally binding $0.9m owed could not be included in the accounts because ‘it was not certain’ to be made. i.e. the company and the auditors were very cautious to not include this legal receipt even though they were very happy to ‘predict’; that it would arrive in H1 2020. So I think the chances of their being a large tax payout is very small indeed.

My conclusion is that the directors has a self interest – by definition the largest shareholder is the CEO and the account infer that there is a potential controlling party between the directors and senior management and family members.
We don’t know what the CEO will do in the tender….

But after the tender the NAV will be 140c and after trading losses and 50% re tax = 84c / 75p, and of course if the german business is sold or closed down before 12 mths, or there is no tax payment the NAV post tender will be materially higher.

So as CEO it is in my interests to persuade others to sell at 55p when I know that the true value might be close to 120p and I don’t Tender my shares. So given my opinion that the CEO is self-interested it is in my interests to do what he does – i.e. do no tender.

However I also need to consider the possibility my analysis is flawed, liquidity, and the de-listing. I also find the de-listing an interesting decision…. Of course there is a monetary cost to do so – but how much? Why don’t the directors tell us? My research shows it could be c.£100k per annum. So given there is huge uncertainty regarding the german business and the tax why not give it a further 12 months and thus all shareholders have the chance to benefit from a positive outcome to these events. It does however scare shareholders firm what I have read on the Bulletin Boards and thus encourages them to tender at 55p - which if very much to the benefit of those that DO NOT TENDER.

At one level it is a very interesting situation but it is also disappointing that the CEO does not provide as much clarity as he can, as opposed to provide the minimum information which is required by stock exchange regulations.

To me it seems fairly obvious that they is value here in CASH which will be released in 12 mths. And automatically after the Tender my shares are worth more. Normally I follow charts but in this case I am going to follow the CEO and follow the money!

Thanks to previous posters, some of whom I’ve followed and respected views of for a few years – any comments on my specifics welcome.

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
PVCS is in my portfolio

[konradpuss] 21/8/2020 19:12

zcaprd7 and gbjbaanb, the Puss is with you as well!

I hope they play it straight as I do not relish being a shareholder with over 3% of a private company without control.

I do have good company commercial solicitors mind and have never held back from litigation - have been to the steps of the Supreme Court in the past.

[gbjbaanb] 21/8/2020 11:22

I will join you in that!

[zcaprd7] 21/8/2020 01:05

It's a most unsatisfactory conclusion to be honest, I look forward to being an enormous pain to the directors if they delist...

[konradpuss] 19/8/2020 17:39

zcaprd7, I could not agree more.

[zcaprd7] 19/8/2020 16:10

I don't think there's much of a choice, unfortunately, tender half and hope they release the rest later on?

[konradpuss] 16/8/2020 20:23

zcaprd7, I read this this morning and thought exactly the same.

How are you minded to vote or are you still contemplating?