Providence Resources Share Discussion Threads

[swizz] 14/7/2022 17:53

I would agree Q3 is a key time line, as it should be aligned to the release of CEPA’s energy security review, Ryan will need some political cover and this in all probability will be the report that provides it,…GL S

[wpc9] 14/7/2022 16:20

thanks swizz. i am long time shareholder and i am really afraid Ryan will pull the gov before he signs this off thereby delsying further. I am convinced litigation is the only way forward. If happening it needs to be signed off before End Q3

[swizz] 14/7/2022 15:34

You would have thought, if there is sufficient political will and supportive emergency measures in place, late 2023 or early 2024 would be technically feasible,..GL S

[wpc9] 14/7/2022 14:31

if fast tracked how quickly could barryroe produce oil

[swizz] 14/7/2022 14:09

Contingency plans are starting to come together and it would not be a huge surprise that indigenous O&G resources that can be accelerated through to production effectively are being discussed, so whilst Ryan will have one view, the social and economic viability of the country will be firmly on the agenda of others, as each day passes and this crisis worsens, the stronger the political will to support Barryroe will become, plus the FG party will also be mindful that their turn at the head of the table is coinciding with what could potentially be the worst of the crisis and they will recognise decisions need to be taken,

I personally don’t believe it was a coincidence that one day Varadkar was suggesting funding support was holding up Barryroe and the next days a funding was completed in short order and a few days on, LG and Vevan stepped up to 16% of the equity, I would suggest it is more a question of when, rather than if now,..GL S

“Government sources said the worst-case-scenario planning is unlikely to come to pass, but there is growing anxiety about the winter ahead.”

There are also contingency plans in place for gas rationing. If Ireland was to be affected by serious gas shortages, similar rationing plans have been drawn up that would be divided between direct gas users and electricity users, as the power sector is a primary consumer of gas. Hospitals, schools and home heating would be prioritised.

The plans are being drawn up as part of work by the Government’s new Energy Security Emergency Group which is planning for potential oil or gas shortages in Ireland and examining modelling scenarios. The body has various subgroups looking specifically at gas security, oil security and communications strategies among other topics. The subgroups meet either every week or every fortnight and are made up of senior Government officials and industry figures.

Industry sources have privately expressed concern about the winter period ahead, warning that any sudden threat of a cut-off of Russian energy could result in panic buying among customers, which would create a supply shock. The National Oil Reserves Agency currently holds about 85 days of oil stocks.

Government sources said the worst-case-scenario planning is unlikely to come to pass, but there is growing anxiety about the winter ahead.

[wpc9] 14/7/2022 13:51

all this news etc is irrelevant to Ryan as he sees the war and shortages as a reason to promote renewables and I suspect secretly he is loving this situation. Litigation by the company is the only solution and should happen immediately. Ryan and Martins response to flying firzt class to the US is a disgrace and their arrogance is appalling.

[tomboyb] 14/7/2022 13:01

*GERMAN GAS STORAGE LEVELS DECLINE AS STORAGE IS BEING WITHDRAWN

[tomboyb] 14/7/2022 12:13

SHELL CEO VAN BEURDEN SAYS IN WORST CASE WE WILL NEED TO RATION

Its going to be a tough winter -

[patfishing] 14/7/2022 12:03

Why are we up 5.6%with very small trades. Dublin ask and bid is also up with no trade

[jotoha2] 14/7/2022 11:50

Come on you Irish , let them extract the gas , you know it makes sense.

[tomboyb] 14/7/2022 11:05

SHELL CEO VAN BEURDEN SAYS WE WILL ALL FACE VERY SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION IN ENERGY PRICES

[tomboyb] 14/7/2022 10:58

SHELL CEO VAN BEURDEN SAYS IT WILL BE A REALLY TOUGH WINTER IN EUROPE

[hermana3] 14/7/2022 07:40

Ireland will be thrown under the bus as always. But are those crusader greens beyond the point of listening?

[steelwatch] 13/7/2022 23:28

"In the The Irish Times - "Irish consumers would be treated the same as those in the British market in the event of any gas shortages, according to the company operating the UK National Grid." #energysecurity"

[roadster750] 13/7/2022 20:19

Putin may cut off oil as well as gas to cripple Europe

The risk of a total halt to Russian gas supply is by now well-understood. Not a single Gazprom molecule has been flowing to Europe through the Yamal pipeline via Poland for six weeks. Flows through Nord Stream 1 via the Baltic have been running at 40pc of capacity since mid-June. They dropped to zero this week for ten days of scheduled maintenance.

Europe’s leaders strongly suspect that the Kremlin will concoct a pretext to keep Nord Stream 1 closed at the end of inspections on July 21 – the next red-letter day for the global economy. France’s finance minister Bruno Le Maire warned on Sunday that a “total cut-off” is more likely than not.

Germany’s Green vice-chancellor Robert Habeck is preparing to activate his country’s stage three “emergencyR21; plan, with gas rationing for heavy industries. “Anything could happen,” he said.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the eurozone would contract by up to 2.7pc if the gas stops flowing, with GDP potentially falling by 3.2pc in Germany and 4.1pc in Italy. The first talk of an EU “energy bail-out” for Germany and Italy has begun. Others will be expected to share their scarce gas reserves – in other words, to do what Germany did not do with PPE kit at the start of the pandemic. This will be fractious.

What is less explored is what would happen if Mr Putin triggers a full-blown oil shock on top of the gas squeeze order to push the cost of living crisis to breaking point.

It is widely assumed that he would not play the oil card because the import revenue is too valuable – worth $700m a day, viz $400m for gas – and because crude is too fungible a commodity on global markets for targeted use against Europe. But this overlooks the internal structure of the Russian economy, and may underestimate Mr Putin’s willingness to create maximum havoc as an instrument of foreign policy.

Natasha Kaneva and Ted Hall at JP Morgan think the Kremlin may be seriously tempted to try. They argue that Russia could halve its total output temporarily and starve the world of up to five million barrels a day - 5pc of global supply - without doing lasting damage to its drilling infrastructure, or suffering an intolerable economic hit. They estimate that a shock and awe squeeze of this magnitude would drive prices to $380 a barrel, levels that would bring the global economy to a shuddering halt.

The more likely calibration is a cut of three million barrels a day. This would lift Brent to $190, still high enough to blast through the all-time record of $148 in mid-2008. “The tightness of the global oil market is on Russia’s side and strong public finances could absorb the revenue losses without too much difficulty,” they said.


Hopes have fizzled for a nuclear deal with Iran that would free up a million barrels a day of global supply. President Joe Biden is trying to coax more crude from Saudi Arabia but even the Kingdom is running out of spare capacity. The rest of OPEC is 2.5 million barrels short of production targets. The stars are aligned for Mr Putin to strike a quick knock-out blow.

Halting production is a technical headache. The longer that wells are left idle, the greater the damage from pressure and rising water content, above all in the declining Soviet fields of Western Siberia where permafrost is melting. Marginal wells might never recover. However, JP Morgan thinks Russia could cut several million barrels a day for a few months by rotating wells and by “throttling221; wells to reduce output.

There is no immediate financial constraint. Russia’s National Wellbeing Fund has $116bn set aside in usable money. The treasury’s cash balance is a further $85bn. Together this is enough to cover a total loss of budget revenues from fossil fuel exports for almost a year, perhaps longer than Europe’s comfortable societies can endure the pain. Russia would be exchanging lower volumes for higher prices in any case, so it might not lose that much revenue.

Furthermore, Western sanctions against the central bank are creating a perverse incentive for the Kremlin to escalate. Russia is currently awash with more fossil fuel revenues than it can handle, unable to sterilise a current account surplus of 20pc of GDP by accumulating foreign reserves.


The result is a surging rouble, currently at an eight-year high against the euro. There is little that the Kremlin can do about this other than pushing through fiscal stimulus packages and imploring consumers to spend more on imports.

Mr Putin has good reason to think that Germany will throw Ukraine under a bus if the pressure is great enough. Berlin is currently blocking the release of €9bn of EU financial aid to Ukraine that was already agreed by the 27 states, ostensibly because it objects to the method of joint debt issuance.

Berlin has just violated the EU’s sanctions regime by strong-arming Canada into handing over a pipeline turbine in hopes that this will restore flows on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The Canadians obliged, with a delay and barely concealed disgust. Volodymyr Zelensky recalled his ambassador from Berlin.

The Kremlin must of course weigh large geostrategic matters. China has so far tolerated a global gas shock since it still relies largely on domestic coal for power. But as the world’s biggest importer of oil, it would be more than a collateral casualty if oil prices double or triple again.

Mr Putin likes to blow smoke in our faces, keeping us permanently off-balance. He may decide that the gas weapon alone is enough. But as former White House Russia guru Fiona Hill likes to put it: if you think he won’t do something beyond the pale, “yes, he will”.

Germany’s Green vice-chancellor Robert Habeck is preparing to activate his country’s stage three “emergencyR21; plan, with gas rationing for heavy industries. “Anything could happen,” he said.
Hey Ryan what's your emergency plan.

[swizz] 13/7/2022 15:54

Another twist in the gas crisis and it wouldn’t be huge surprise to see the gas taking on increased importance at Barryroe,…GL S

Gazprom cannot guarantee good functioning of Nord Stream pipeline: statement

Russian energy giant Gazprom said Wednesday it could not guarantee the good functioning of Nord Stream, saying it did not know if a “critical” turbine engine would be returned from repair in Canada.

“Gazprom does not have a single document to allow (German company) Siemens to take out of Canada the gas turbine engine currently being repaired there,” Gazprom said in a statement.

“In these circumstances, it is not possible to draw an objective conclusion about the development of the situation and ensuring the safe operation of the Portovaya station — a critical facility for the Nord Stream gas pipeline.”

[cephalosaurus] 13/7/2022 12:18

It's amazing how the woke few have almost caused WW3

[roadster750] 13/7/2022 10:56

In europe and the uk extreme opposition to net zero is growing by the day, it can't be long before the penny drops with ff and fg that coalition with the greens has become politically toxic, the Irish people are going to suffer fuel and cost of living misery more and more as winter approaches, the anger of the people will soon turn on the coalition, the greens will be the first to be culled. Looking forward at the unfolding energy crisis I see no way that Barryroe cannot be developed, Ireland and indeed europe simply has no choice.

[paulsavannah] 11/7/2022 17:59

Ex-ESB International boss issues gas supply warning https://www.rte.ie/news/2022/0711/1309627-energy-supply/

[swizz] 11/7/2022 15:18

Nord Stream 1 is now shut off for repairs, so no gas flow through to Germany from this major pipeline, hopefully the parts arrive on time!,…GL S

“Russia turns off gas pipeline to Germany for repairs“

“Officials fear flow through Nord Stream 1 might not resume after maintenance work“


Russia’s main gas pipeline to Germany went offline for scheduled maintenance on Monday, with fears growing that the flow of gas might not resume after the repairs are completed, threatening potentially disastrous consequences for Europe’s largest economy.

German officials admit they have no idea whether state-controlled gas export monopoly Gazprom will restart deliveries through Nord Stream 1 once the maintenance period comes to an end on July 21.

“We are getting quite different signals from Russia,” Klaus Müller, head of the Federal Network Agency, Germany’s energy regulator, told ZDF TV on Monday. Should Moscow fail to resume supplies on or around July 21 “it would look really bad”, he added.

European Commission spokesman Tim McPhie described the Nord Stream 1 shutdown as part of a broader picture of supply disruptions, with 12 EU countries currently being fully or partially cut off from Russian gas.

“The situation is clearly serious, and we need to be adequately prepared for any eventuality,” McPhie said. “We know gas supplies are being weaponised by Russia.”

The commission is planning to table proposals in mid-July on how EU countries should co-ordinate their industrial energy rationing and which categories of users to prioritise when faced with even fewer supplies.

[swizz] 11/7/2022 14:44

Roads, I sense a lot of people in Ireland feel the same way, a snippet from a Gript article below, provides the top 3 suggestions for the Government to turn their fortunes around, it’s probably not a huge surprise to see what came in 2nd,…GL S

2. DITCH THE GREEN AGENDA LONG-TERM

From a practical perspective, the government feels like they need the Greens short term to hold the coalition together. And to an extent that’s unavoidable. But in the medium- to long-term, they need to be looking at a decoupling. Because the Greens and the green agenda are going to kill Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael stone dead.

Polling shows that over 8 in 10 people oppose Green policies – and not in a casual way. In an energised, passionate way.

And why wouldn’t they oppose it? It drives up the cost of fuel and home heating for ordinary people, and it puts unsustainable regulations on fishermen and farmers, making it nearly impossible to do their job. Same goes for peat harvesters and horticulturalists.

You even have Eamon Ryan saying that cheap holidays will be a thing of the past by the time he’s done with the economy.

Obviously people don’t want this. Obviously people are going to react badly to you telling them “By the way, we’re intentionally making your quality of life worse on purpose and making it harder to do the things you enjoy.”

The government has committed itself to loads of international climate targets. But who would you rather win over? European politicians, or the voters you rely on to stay in your seat?

The green agenda has won the governing parties nothing but hatred and scorn. For every one plucky young college student you may win over by environmentalist pandering, you lose at least 3 other people who are infuriated by their petrol bill. It’s not worth it – for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to survive, the Greens simply have to go.