Provexis Share Discussion Threads

[gix er] 05/4/2023 07:19

I find it unlikely that DSM was holding more stock than they were likely to sell so what has changed?

We have committed to purchase around half the stock due to our current cash position and if we get an extended shelf life then that de risks the purchase of the remaining stock while we 1."ascertain the likely demand from these actual and prospective customers" and 2."raise further equity finance, or potentially new loan finance"

Any extension to the inventory handover is going to be beneficial to us as we will be receiving income from the stock we already have and any funds required will be considerably less if the remaining stock can be held by a third party on consignment.

I think IF is just being overly cautious rather than any real reduction in demand.

[winner31] 04/4/2023 16:11

I do think DSM took their eye off the ball with ff, I don’t know but it seemed to me there was a lack of drive to get the sales needed to make it successful,that of course was before the new microbiota function and it seems they might have found new enthusiasm to get ff out to the masses, I was intrigued that Ian chose to mention a renewed interest from a “truly global” player, but as someone has already said that’s another carrot to dangle for the next 7 years but we can all hope.

[bareknee] 04/4/2023 15:47

Winner

That's possible, but given in December it was thought that the stock was ".. are currently estimated to be favourable / long dated in light of recent production runs of new Fruitflow material in 2022," it seems less likely.

For it to be a possibility, DSM would have had to be broadly unaware of the stock situation wrt it's best before dates which, at best, would have been sloppy. Not impossible by any means, but doesn't seem that likely.

[winner31] 04/4/2023 14:56

Or could it be that the €550k of ff pxs have committed to buy is the longest dated and the remainder that DSM hold has a shorter shelf life ! Hence the need to test that batch .

[redprince] 04/4/2023 12:15

BB - i think you are correct regarding cashflow and they even mentioned this indirectly in the RNS when they mentioned possibility of loan finance.
The shelf life dates could be due to as you say orders being lower than originally anticipated or trying to preserve cash as we know that a production run of FF is a material sum and that is money we are unlikely to have atm.
Yes a few hundred k should bridge the gap in the meantime.

[bareknee] 04/4/2023 11:35

A few thoughts on yesterday's update :-

Although I'm very confident Ford will get the funding needed to ensure our cashflow situation ( if I wasn't confident, I'd have sold up ) it does look it's being trickier than he envisaged.

To me ( others may disagree ), it looks like we're getting fairly close to the wire on cash. The first batch of FF we bought from DSM cost 348k Euros, whereas this months batch will be for 202k Euros. The difference could be for many reasons, but my best guess is that's all we can reasonably afford, which is why we're exploring the possibility of extending the handover agreement with DSM by another three months.

The tone on the shelf life of the existing FF DSM have has subtly changed from tbe Interims of "the best before dates of this inventory, which are currently estimated to be favourable / long dated in light of recent production runs of new Fruitflow material in 2022," to yesterday's talk of the manufacturer looking at possibly extending best before dates, which suggests the repeat order pipeline isn't as strong as hoped for.

Ian chose not to include an estimated net cash situation for the end of the FY in the update. He also chose to say nothing about sales of FF as an ingredient in the update. Maybe I'm being unduly realistic, but they make me think those numbers aren't earth shattering.

None of the above is exactly unexpected, but we do look like we're having a bit of a cashflow situation, and, as we havn't, yet anyway, got a loan deal with anyone secured against stock, then I think a cash call is looking more likely than it was a few months ago.

In the short-term, I think a few hundred k would see us through to when substantial orders will hopefully come from ByHealth. At that point we'll have a history of sales and a better visibility of the pipeline, which would make us a better risk for someone to loan us cash against future orders.

BB

[winner31] 21/3/2023 11:32

Here’s a truly global business.

[winner31] 10/3/2023 13:08

By-health Chairman’s letter , posted by Gixer on lse.

[nestoframpers] 06/3/2023 11:34

thanks redprince , I agree with you . It would take about £50 K to start a P and D at PXS, if you are of the criminal leaning imo.

[redprince] 06/3/2023 10:26

nestoframpers - i would treat with extreme caution the last few lines of the above.The poster in question is trying to suggest an imminent rise in share price based on fresh air.He or she does not know any more than the rest of us.Saying there is no stock is misleading - it is a thinly traded stock with normal market size of trades being small at best of times.
We have had many false dawns here - lets just wait for the RNS that tells us the good news - likely some way off in all reality.We still have not been told that the final trials are complete never mind SAMR application approved.

[winner31] 02/3/2023 08:31

I suppose they have covered their backs with this statement. “Under the terms of the DSM Transfer of Business agreement, the Company can elect in the first quarter of 2023 to purchase some but not all of DSM's remaining stocks of Fruitflow at 31 December 2022, being a decision which the Company will seek to make in the first quarter of 2023”

[gix er] 01/3/2023 09:25

We have been given various options on how the Co might proceed with the purchase of the stock and quantities/cost.
Once this has been decided I believe the market needs to be informed.
BWTFDIK :)

[winner31] 28/2/2023 13:43

They probably don’t have to issue an RNS under AIM rules , Disclosure of corporate transactions Substantial transactions
12. A substantial transaction is one which exceeds 10% in any of the class tests. It includes any transaction by a subsidiary of the AIM company but excludes any transactions of a revenue nature in the ordinary course of business and transactions to raise finance which do not involve a change in the fixed assets of the AIM company or its subsidiaries.
An AIM company must issue notification without delay as soon as the terms of any substantial transaction are agreed, disclosing the information specified by Schedule Four.

[bareknee] 19/2/2023 20:30

I'd be surprised if we don't get an RNS by the end of the month saying which option we're taking for paying DSM. The previous info is fine until a decision is made, but once it's made I think that warrants telling the markets what the crack is.

Given it's now mid-Feb, and any sales in Jan are presumably on 30 day payment I'd guess we'll be going down the ( effective ) short-term debt road rather than a placing, but I've been wrong so many times on Provexis that I really ought to try to stop guessing !

[gix er] 19/2/2023 17:38

winner, I can't disagree but wouldn't rule out a fund raise just yet.

[winner31] 19/2/2023 12:11

Gixer so second payment due on 28th so that’s possibly £600k gone from our reserves , if a third party has bought the stock then we won’t know anything until end March ,there seems little chance of a placing or open offer to raise the money , either way I would have thought an Rns should be due .

[gix er] 13/2/2023 10:08

According to a recent article by Duttaroy "7 experiments have been conducted in China" so that would only leave 1 to be completed. Unfortunately we have no idea how long the delay was due to strict Covid restrictions in China.

SAMR Health Claim approval is impossible to estimate atm but if this article from July is correct they have got their act together when it comes to Blue Cap with much reduced timeframes.



As for the stock, well I thought we would have got an RNS stating the first payment had been made given the fact that it was possibly around £300,000 of our cash.
As it stands we don't know how much stock is being purchased, for how much or were its being stored etc.

[redprince] 13/2/2023 08:16

By end March we should get RNS confirming stock purchase details and whether they needed additional finance to complete.
End of clinical trials should not be far away - was meant to be done by Dec'22.
The big question is how long for SAMR approval - probably going to take most of this year imo as Blue Hat took about two years???

[gix er] 12/2/2023 12:57

First launched August 2013.(in a box)


Freestream Supersuoja was then introduced in Dec 2016 but I don't think this version is available anymore.


:)

[winner31] 12/2/2023 10:58

Not sure if this is a new product I dare say someone will know ,

[winner31] 01/2/2023 08:54

So first payment(£300k approx)should have been paid yesterday to DSM ! Must have been paid out of our reserves as no placing or Rns stating otherwise !

[redprince] 24/1/2023 13:28

Bareknee - thanks for clearing that up.Not what i wanted to hear mind you!

[bareknee] 24/1/2023 13:11

It's not that simple Redprince.

If we were taken over before the options are exercisable then, barring anything in the details of the options plan saying otherwise, the default scenario is that the options will be cancelled, but a takeover might ( though it's unlikely ) be regarded as a trigger event, allowing them to be exercised early.

But it's certainly not unheard of for the unvested options to be replaced with new options in the acquiring company making the offer or even a cash equivalent as a sweetener.