Primary Health Properties Share Discussion Threads

[winsome] 09/2/2022 14:28

I still don't quite understand why PHP and AGR are tanking while my other holdings such as LXI and BBGI on similar yields are steady. PHP and AGR have lower risk profiles than LXI. PHP has historically grown NAV quite strongly. I see no other real reason than investors following recent downward momentum. I'm a long term holder and I see rates and inflation going back to normal levels later this year. Consumer spending will soon be seriously constrained.

[makinbuks] 08/2/2022 14:52

Exactly, so winsome the threat is less from what the BOE does with rates more with inflation and the effect that has on the long term cash flows. We all love the benefit of compound interest, this is simply the opposite.

To be fair there will still be plenty of demand for what PHP do I just think any new deals they sign up will be NIY 6% + rather than the sub 5% of recent years. Also it remains true that with basically the Government as a tenant you have the best covenant available

[chucko1] 08/2/2022 14:20

The big problem for long duration assets is that the yield on inflation linked bonds is still derisory. Inflation MINUS 200bps. This has seen, for example, the UKTI 2068s fall 70 points in the past 2 months alone (real yield has risen from -255bps to -199bps).

The last NAV seems to be in the order of 115p (June 2021), so it is not as thought this is cheap even after the large fall of the past few months.

Add to that a potential rise in discount rate, and I would still be concerned.

[winsome] 08/2/2022 14:01

People expect another 4 hikes in interest rate this year but the BOE is way behind the curve. Consumer spending is already buckling under pressure from increased mortgage and energy bills. I expect this will drive down inflation during the spring, ie much quicker than expected, at which point the BOE will put the emergency brakes on further rate hikes.

[makinbuks] 08/2/2022 13:01

The act of typing my posts 1024 and 1026 on 19th Jan made me act on my own advice and sell at 1.447. Been great to me for over a decade. I assume wealth managers getting private clients out at the moment

[3800] 08/2/2022 11:52

I sold out yesterday after holding for years. It looks to me that interest rates are going much higher or I may be wrong.
3800

[mirandaj] 08/2/2022 11:33

16 February 2022 Preliminary Announcements

[spoole5] 04/2/2022 21:12

Pretty heavy premium

[panshanger1] 04/2/2022 18:04

Seems to be sensitive to rising interest rates

[panshanger1] 04/2/2022 17:53

Heavy volume too

[spoole5] 04/2/2022 15:59

Will it retest the covid low? Keeping an eye on this

[panshanger1] 04/2/2022 15:43

New 52 week low Bears in ascendency ATM

[rik shaw] 19/1/2022 19:12

With annualised dividend at 6.5p the current yield at 146.5p is 4.44%..

[makinbuks] 19/1/2022 16:17

Well right now I estimate the yield is 4.0%, if they fell to £1.10 the yield would be 5.3%. In a market where three rate rises are being assumed this year and three more in 2023 that doesn't seem unreasonable to me. I've held for many years and its only in very recent years the yield has been less than 5%

[paulboz] 19/1/2022 12:44

From what I can see, the NAV is only around 110p. I hope you're wrong! Next month's results will be very interesting.

[makinbuks] 19/1/2022 10:36

My thoughts are that as bond yields rise this will float down to NAV. The results should be good, looking for tangible benefit from bringing the managing agent inside the model

[bathcoup] 07/1/2022 00:05

I wonder if the Guaranteed Convertible Bonds (£150,000,000 nominal) is one of reasons for the recent weakness.



This may also explain those short positions. Some of the Convertible Bond holders might have wanted to lock in profit, I'd imagine.

[perfect choice] 06/1/2022 09:16

Quarterly dividend announced today and a decent 4.8% annual uplift in the dividend, (1.625p/share versus 1.55p previously).

[bathcoup] 05/1/2022 21:21

portfolio = 100%
fixed + indexed = 31%
OMV review = 69%

I'm not a holder, so don't closely follow PHP. In a inflation environment, those with fixed-rent will suffer(how much of the portfolio is on "fixed"). "OMV review" should offer some (delayed) protection, I'd think.

[makinbuks] 05/1/2022 09:40

The downside is the premium to NAV which is threatened by rising interest rates

[bathcoup] 04/1/2022 21:29

I'm surprise to see those short positions (Skinny5 Oct '21 - 08:55 - 1005 of 1017). Given the nature of PHP's business, the downside must be very limited. I doubt those are naked shorts.

[km18] 15/12/2021 12:41

Primary Health Properties is the leading investor in modern healthcare properties in the UK, with a concise objective to derive optimised returns to shareholders through a combination of earnings growth and capital appreciation. This evidence is supported by the EPS growth of 4.1%, higher than the real estate benchmark. The significant growth can be explained by the attractive profit rally recorded in the latest results, where operating profit surged to £129.6m from £68.8m in 2020. Subsequently, Primary Health Properties were able to enhance their net cashflow since it soared to £72.5m from £64m. As a result, it was incorporated into the P/FCF ratio of 16.0, which was higher than the real estate P/FCF ratio of 8.8. Consequently, it implies that Primary Health Properties can fund its operations and investments more effectively than its industry peers, enabling shareholders to yield optimised returns from profit hike.



Keep up to date with WealthOracle AM

[makinbuks] 12/11/2021 10:19

True, I guess HL are just noting the demand for modern facilities isn't going to let up