Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[steve73] 01/3/2019 11:12

Last month there were no cashless warrant conversions, and just 3545 warrants converted for cash (which probably just about paid for the RNS.. LOL)

Incidentally, the error in the 1 Feb RNS was corrected this month.

Still 50.3 MM warrants to be exercised, which will add a further 6% or so dilution (plus 21MM synthetic warrants which if I understand correctly will simply result in a cash payment when they mature, and no further dilution.)

[the guardian] 01/3/2019 11:11

Have you ever written to the FCA? Their reply is that they may or may not look into your issue but if they do, you won't be told the outcome anyway.

[manics] 01/3/2019 11:08

adg: and that imo breaks down as-

1800 who want to work at a hedge fund
700 who want to work at a bank
400 who want partner status at a City law firm
100 who want to see fairness and decency in markets

[adg] 01/3/2019 11:04

Technically it must all be illegal, if you or I did that to control the price we would be prosecuted. Simple as that

However an institution(s) seems to be immune..

The FCA have over 3000 employees... take a look at how many prosecutions for share trading related offences have been made over the past several years by them.... I think it is barely in double figures.. go figure that one!

[titasiinitramho] 01/3/2019 10:58

"What is the actual process that is used to keep a share like PMO in a fixed range i wonder?"


Large limit orders.

[chinahere] 01/3/2019 10:07

Sounds plausible to me NAV_Mike.

What is the actual process that is used to keep a share like PMO in a fixed range i wonder?

I guess a smallish company with a large proportion of sentiment-driven private investors is more easily controlled, but it must cost money unless some sort of shorting is used as well ?

[nav_mike] 01/3/2019 09:56

If there is a deal being done with Apollo, it will be interesting to see if any element of funding is based around recent VWAP. Would at least give an explanation as to why the price has been held in such a tight range.

Happy to hold my hands up and say I was wrong if need be, but recent price action has not been 'normal' and 75p seems to have been such an obvious catalyst for the algos to go mentaleach day

[adg] 01/3/2019 08:31

Andy, FCF is FCF and what PMO do with it is beyond our control...

What is a definite is that there is a lot of it, even at POO of $65

It will be in the order of 1.5m per day just now,

I am in industry and I am pretty sure the guidance will prove to be low for average production, let’s see about that.

You seem intelligent and articulate so don’t see why you are trying to knock one’d, who I think posts honest impartial informative info And I welcome his posts, as I welcome yours.

[seangwhite] 01/3/2019 07:43

Let's hope Donald has his mind on other things than Oil for now. He might leave off Twitter until Mueller comes forward with more details which may not appear in his autobiography.

[manics] 01/3/2019 07:31

Trump tweet effect erased. Oil got it back.

[stansmith3] 01/3/2019 07:28

andyyes we all know the type, onedeuchebag seems one of the more ignorant types, going by his postings and poor track record

[andypop1] 01/3/2019 00:19

One dB,
Thanks for the mature reply, as for aliases I don't have any, I post on the ii board as GK but you probably remember me from lse, the Afpo board in particular, where I posted as andy.p.
Your charts failed you there, didn't they?
As for FRR, as I told you before, I have never commented on that ticker.

A few numbers previously posted on the ii board, edited slightly to account for the cash received from the warrants.

This year’s projections are:
Opex up 20%.
Production down by 5500 barrels a day and that’s with Catcher producing 65k for the full twelve months, I’m sure the lost production was well worth $75m in cash receipts (to the creditors)!
Capex very similar to last year at $340m compared to $355m.

Back to the debt, I’m sure you remember this statement for last January’s TU:
“Net debt at the year-end was US$2.7 billion, reflecting positive free cashflow generation including disposals offset by the impact of the refinancing and non-cash foreign exchange movements on non-dollar denominated debt. Net debt reduction would have been even greater but for the phasing of certain liftings across the portfolio following lower production in Q4 which results in cash proceeds moving into 2018”

We all know about the bonds, warrants and the asset sales so that leaves $161m of debt paid down from sales producing 80.5k per day with Brent averaging $73 through 2018.
Then we have:
“offset by the impact of the refinancing and non-cash foreign exchange movements on non-dollar denominated debt”, so since the end of 2017 what has happened to the dollar and therefore the non-dollar denominated debt you may ask?
The answer is the dollar has risen nicely meaning that portion of net debt has reduced when reporting in dollars.

To “accelerate221; the debt reduction this year the company needs to pay down over $390m with less production and higher costs, how much family silver is left to sell?
They will not accelerate debt pay down from sales alone.

With the debt due in 2021 there could be some more tough negotiations with the creditors coming up in a little over a year.

Stanley,
The charts told him 40p was a buy before EnQuest tanked, I'm sure he still sold for a handsome profit though before re-buying @ 22p!

Good luck all genuine holders, I'll leave you in peace again.

[onedb1] 01/3/2019 00:00

Didn't read much on the bbs today so not sure if some highlighted this today too, but Berenberg upped its target from 90p to 110p yesterday.
Obviously I have been critical in the past of some broker forecasts so take it as a FYI.

Nevertheless my personal view of 100-104 (where PMO would be without the noise of a RI IMO) ie where chart also tells me resistance is and the 200sma is.
Its also a view I have in part due to an area its peers have already taken ie Tullow , Cairn and Genel on its way . The majors too BP and Shell ( close) though have since fallen back.



Brent holding up well and ytd average now above $62

[oilretire] 28/2/2019 21:06

A week today...........

7 March 2019
Annual Results for the year ended December 2018

[oilretire] 28/2/2019 21:04

The LyondellBasell case study on the home page contains an interesting quote -

During the financial crisis, Apollo recognized the opportunity to acquire debt in Lyondell, as the business represented a “good company with a bad balance sheet.”

[oilretire] 28/2/2019 20:59

Before you all get too excited, a joint PMO/Apollo bid (if there is one) might not win.

I know that Chrysaor, which is backed by EIG Global Energy Partners, got the nod from those backers last year to go after other NS assets after the successful purchase of ex BG Shell assets had gone rather well in the eyes of said backers.

Others are sniffing around too.

[seangwhite] 28/2/2019 20:43

Guess we must leave it to the intrepid ST reporter to flesh out a 'report' on this over the coming weekend.

[5070481] 28/2/2019 20:36

Where does it say premier won't be having to finance anything? Couldn't see anything about them purely operating it

[mercer95] 28/2/2019 20:23

Good find chinahere 👍 cheers

[chinahere] 28/2/2019 18:53

The Apollo website really is worth looking at:

hxxps://www.apollo.com/our-business/credit

Premier has the assets and Apollo look to have the credit.

[rbonnier] 28/2/2019 18:42

Sounds a lot better idea than the ST idea of a 1.5 billion rights issue..lol ! share price might go up if confirmed

[seangwhite] 28/2/2019 18:41

Appollo finance with PMO to operate (and use its tax credits) to the make the deal work for a quick return for both parties. Time will tell and meanwhile I hope the news on Zama update helps share price and must be due fairly soon.

[jelenko] 28/2/2019 18:36

The same sort of deal that they have managed to do on Tolmount. Sounds good if it happens.