Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[asa8] 19/2/2019 19:54

Mercer you only post when we post you tool you work hard all your life and then the top 1% steal it of you I’ve spoke to Pmo last week about the goings on here they were very annoyed with the times ,put it this way they could be looking for a good lawyer if anyone knows one.

[oldsnrtom] 19/2/2019 19:34

At least you aren't as bad as Nuog Alan Minty in charge of Mfdevco!!

a combined total current assets value of £9

Stay clear of Nuog ISSUE SOON!!


About MR ALAN MINTY

About MR ALAN MINTY

Mr Alan Minty holds 1 appointment at 1 active company, has resigned from 0 companies and held 0 appointments at 0 dissolved companies. Their longest current appointment spans 2 years, 5 months and 27 days at MARGINAL FIELD DEVELOPMENT COMPANY (MFDEVCO) LTD

The combined cash at bank value for all businesses where ALAN holds a current appointment equals £9, a combined total current assets value of £9 with a total current liabilities of £2.7k and a total current net worth of £-2.7k. Roles associated with Mr Alan Minty within the recorded businesses include: 


a combined total current assets value of £9

[mercer95] 19/2/2019 17:49

Thanks onedb1 & WhiskyIntheJar,good informative posts, much appreciated 👍 usual gibberish from marv & Asda8,talk about repeating the same old script 💤 at least screwloose has moved on.

[seangwhite] 19/2/2019 17:45

Good well reasoned post from Whiskey.Such posts make a pleasant change.

[asa8] 19/2/2019 17:35

More dodgy dealings going on here the sooner premier gets sold the better for everyone

[whiskeyinthejar] 19/2/2019 17:16

Marvin went on about all this before last trading update, and one before. The story goes that because share price isnt doing what we want, then shorters must be fraudulently being fed inside information by pmo. Have to say it doesn't follow.

So what was this negative information in the last trading update, or prior one that insiders knew about before and retail didn't?

Was it that debt targets are being met? Or was it that Catcher was over performing?

I can't see that there has been anything that insiders could've been fed that was any use to them.

Genel has a similar chart to PMO. It has similar risk on/off behavior too. It's share price also halved from last year's high to a low at end of December. Since then its share price has recovered, but has got stuck under £2 in same way pmo is has met resistance at 80p. Are Genel shareholders speculating they have insider traders controlling their share price? Ironically a former Genel director was done for insider trading, but i haven't seen any speculation on advfn that Genel CEO is engaging is criminal activity. Perhaps because Marvin doesn't post on Genel.

This whole idea that one or two players can control the share price of a large company is bogus imo. In short term with deep pockets or high frequency trading an institution can push the price how it wants. But if wider market is moving in opposite direction all that happens is they'll lose money. Like a football being pushed into a swimming pool, shorting it down against buying pressure doesn't work. It's simple imo- if there's enough buyers in medium term the price goes up.

Looking at chart, i think Pmo hit a double top at the beginning of January at 80p. We all know the Gann theory that double top signals a loss of confidence that share price is ready to go higher. And so it's proved, confidence had flagged. Other part of Gann theory though, is that the 4th try at breaking resistance level usually succeeds. Link as I guess many will say I made 4th time lucky theory up!



Gann published 286 of his trades in advance in a newspaper. About 90% of them came off. I don't think anyone on advfn can trade this well. Absolute legend.

Anyway doesn't matter too much, 4th or 14th attempt, I can wait.

However, I can't prove the fundamental reason why we failed to break 80p in January.

But IIRC:

- it coincided with brexit vote which May lost. The chat then was a general election was option and therefore the prospect of a Labor government more likely. Corbyn wouldn't be good for north sea or Sea Lion approval imo and uncertainty is always bad. Since then option of early general election seems to have faded.

- it coincided with Times article. timing was bad as it came at 80p inflection point.

- share price had risen by about a third in three weeks. That's a fair bit in a short period so bound to be profit taking

- brent was only $60. I haven't done the numbers but UBS have and they calculate at $60, pmo is only worth 77p NAV with the upgrade to the Catcher FPSO.

The other part of this is that UBS calculate that with Sea Lion approved, Zama, appraised and Brent at $80, NAV is £2.90!! So there's an arithmetic reason why we are so geared to oil price and why the share price halved. No need to resort to exotic theories then. Occam's Razor anyone?

Anyway, I think it's a reasonable opinion to believe someone else could run pmo better. He's 60 this year, must be near retirement. More difficult to understand is why Marvin wants to fist him in the car park at Nandos though. But i think Durrant leaving right now would be disruptive, Durrant will have lot of business knowledge and several projects are at key stages. Also the company strategy is tied to the BOD rather just Durrant. It's not like a AiM oily where the CEO is key, bigger oil is more of team game imo. So him leaving won't change strategy and operationally, PMO are now performing well under Durrant.

Anyway I think the pmo specific problem that weighs on the share price is their strategy. They have so many options to sell assets or grow in Mexico, North Sea, Falklands etc. that it looks like they lack a plan. Big thing then is getting FID on Sea Lion and outline plan on Zama. Zama development should be cheap as they only have 25% of cost and intend to use appraisal wells already drilled as producers, but lots of uncertainty about plans and whether Zama should sold etc

Unfortunately no listed company will tie their hands by ruling out a placing.But I don't see need for pmo to sell Zama or do a placing unless oil sinks badly. I'd say the possibility of pmo selling off assets in a fire sale has actually weighed on share price in past. They wouldn't get a good price if they sold Zama or SL undeveloped. Seems unnecessary, because if similar performance to Q4 continues they should be able to pay down more debt from cash flow this year than they'd get for Zama.

However, what I think they should do counts for nothing, but imo Premier needs to clarify their story. Then they can up the PR and can say to institutions invest in us because they have a clear plan and certainty of funding in place to implement plan. They can say 'we're going to make pots of cash in Sea Lion', instead of woolly current situation of final decision hasn't been made.

It's also my personal preference not to invest in exploration or the wait between discovery and funding in place. However once you have funding sorted, I think you can make good money waiting for first oil and the project to be priced in. Anyway, I think more clarity will come in next update in March and there ought to be significantly more interest in PMO with FID for Sea Lion sorted. But I think to see real value here you'll need to wait another 2 years for first oil at SL and Zama, not 2 weeks. Sorry long post.

[onedb1] 19/2/2019 15:42

Bit like saying we had minus 5 and snow , 2/3 weeks ago hence our winters are very cold, its a rubbish argument . It's the yearly average that matters not an outlier . A 5 year old will tell you that . The hedged production too was at much lower levels . Come on get real . Plus debt did come down nicely

[marvinridesagain] 19/2/2019 15:22

Oil was trading at $86 so what happened to the profits?

[onedb1] 19/2/2019 15:17

I hope that a few realise that breakeven is at $45 and a third of production is nicely hedged at aggregate of $70 ($69-H1/$71-H2) Ytd starting on Jan 1st average unhedged using front month future is at $61.44 . So nicely over $16 of free cash flow a barrel . Or over $42m a month in free cash flow so far this year and improving . Not sure where this tanking business comes from .. oil could trade at $50 and Pmo still makes money

[shiv1986] 19/2/2019 14:42

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Many Thanks

[marvinridesagain] 19/2/2019 14:16

Jabba wont confirm he wont be coming out with the begging bowl for the second time in 3 years because he historically knows opertunity for his insider sewer rat shorting mates to screw some more money out of PMO at the expense of long suffering share holders.

Resign Bratwurst sucker

[tab27] 19/2/2019 13:21

Inside shorters, only explanation. Stuck at the 75p support atm, if it drops below that its going straight back down to 68. Although i believe this may be the new support line as brent has gone up 3-4 dollars, so the support from 68 you'd think would have to go up a bit.Easy money to be made here gentlemen. Play with Jabba's boys and they'll make you money as well as themselves.

[the guardian] 19/2/2019 12:59

Today's drop isn't in proportion to the marginally weaker Brent price. Pity, because we have lost a couple of days growth.

[ammu12] 19/2/2019 12:00

Enquest looking strong back in the 30s

[5trelok] 19/2/2019 11:52

@adg I'm maybe reading too much into it but I checked some RNSs relating to another

company (SAGA) that was subject to similar trading patterns by Deutsche Bank and JPM

and they too had a relatively small shareholding and a far bigger CFD position with

accompanying voting rights. SAGA was trashed and remains in the doldrums.

[adg] 19/2/2019 11:38

interesting conclusion 5T, something 'sucks' - Goldman Sachs sucks - I don't trust one of the fekkers
Insider knowledge if that's the case for sure and the regulators are impotent

[5trelok] 19/2/2019 11:24

@chinahere

This is always reasonably heavily traded so I don't think that would be necessary -

and they only own maybe half a million shares. The big CFD long position with the

accompanying voting rights is what I can't fathom. I know it affords cheaper access

than buying the shares but why with voting rights? That's unusual. Is there going to

something to vote on imminently?

[chinahere] 19/2/2019 11:03

I read online that Goldman Sachs offers institutions a liquid market in their shares by buying and trading significant amounts of them. Would they be doing that here? If so, why would someone want to keep the shares liquid at this level?

[steve73] 19/2/2019 10:26

Penance served.. 5 HM's, a block of rock salt over my shoulder, and I kicked a black cat across the road..

but it's dropped the OP even more..

[the guardian] 19/2/2019 10:20

Goldman Sucks are not good to have around. In seventeen years, I have never seen a share price rise because of them.