Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[john09] 24/11/2018 11:10

Yes there were some bargains to be had but also some turkeys. I had afren and gulf keystone . Say no more!

[deanroberthunt] 24/11/2018 11:10

Need to make a decision next few weeks...swap out into debt free plcs

[deanroberthunt] 24/11/2018 11:09

Tolmout first gas not until end 2020...could be dead and buried long before that

[john09] 24/11/2018 11:08

the usual suspects will be in trouble first. Enquest carries a billion of debt too

[eodfire] 24/11/2018 11:07

Shell was in the £12/13 area. There was some unbelievable bargains to be had.

[deanroberthunt] 24/11/2018 11:05

Spent too long getting screwed over by the CBs and Lenders....TLW just did a rights which over the term was better fir shareholders

[colebrooke] 24/11/2018 11:04

Aside from Zama you have the Catcher upgrade and Tolmount progression all adding value. Big question is Sea Lion. Without stating the obvious oil price is key.

[eodfire] 24/11/2018 11:04

Shorted to a point close to death. What a buy at that level. I had some in the 30's.

[john09] 24/11/2018 10:56

What was the low in 2015/16 can anyone recall?

[deanroberthunt] 24/11/2018 10:51

Bad decisions....in hindsight

[john09] 24/11/2018 10:44

Without a strong price of oil, this is going back to the dark days of the start of 2016. How low did it go then was it 20p ?

Can’t believe after all these years, restructures, rights issues etc this still has $2.5bn debt wtf has it been doing 😂👍🏼

[dealer1972] 24/11/2018 10:44

I guess it depends how and where they find a home for it. US desperately needs a trade deal with China who take most of their shale oil as US don't have the refinery infrastructure themselves for domestic use. Hence the increase in US inventories, they don't have a buyer for the oil! I guess China stockpiled prior to stopping imports hence their increased inventory level and probably influenced the op increase.So shale producers pumping flat out with no buyer, how long can that continue! Think Trump is cutting his nose off to spite his rather orange face with his 'lets get this lower' shenanigans!

[deanroberthunt] 24/11/2018 10:38

And they did a big rights to knock a chuck off the debt...

[rationaleee] 24/11/2018 10:37

Possibly its just the FTSE250 companies selling out on possible exit from the FTSE250 club and the shorters adding to it?

TLW is much low risk as its mostly oil weighted and that too best in the class low cost oil.

[deanroberthunt] 24/11/2018 10:29

So UBS worst case scenario could play out..oil at $60..no Zama (sold)..and no SL as no finance given backdrop..valuation 70p...sp now 64p

[oilman888] 24/11/2018 10:13

If you compare the P/FCF ratios currently for PMO (1.8 - 2.4 depending on your accounting method) and TLW(6), the difference in valuation is just crazy!

I'm afraid one of the North Sea PE-backed companies will get the most value out of this eventually...

[rationaleee] 24/11/2018 10:01

Steve/oilman - You are expecting too much from the Babbage and Pak asset sales. Remember that after working capital adjustments Babbage would barely net us $30mn-40mn and for Pak. assets the payment has been made by installments over the last 1-2 years, so of the $65mn, we might have received almost eveything by June this year, with small bits might be outsanding at year end. So out of $130mn you are expecting from the disposals, we'd be owed maybe net $40mn as rest has been paid over previous years/months.

Steve - the bond conversion amount will not be fully reflected in net debt as it forms part of the covenant/total debt figure. So the headline on net might be lower but on accounting/total debt its still the reduction. And you are forgetting the massive $200mn to $300mn refinancing fees we had to pay last year. So need to take these things into account as well.

People who keep whining here about PMOs drop should remember that on a relative basis to say TLW and ENQ, PMO has reacted as any pured levered play would react to oil price drop. PMO went up over 100% with oil over the last year, before dropping 50% as oil dropped. If you compare that with ENQ which dropped over 50% on absolute basis with dilution, but didn't go up as much with the oils rally pre-dilution, ENQs drop on a relative basis is over 70% as it didn't go up with oil but fell a lot with oil. Same goes with TLW where it didn't go up as much but didn't fell as much either due to a much better debt position and quality low cost asset position.

[deanroberthunt] 24/11/2018 09:40

If we are now going to get lower for longer, the only proper fix is a rights, of at least $400-500m, assuming the IIs want to go that route.

[deanroberthunt] 24/11/2018 09:38

Steve/Hoper2

I think we need to put this to the board....it's a serious issue.

[deanroberthunt] 24/11/2018 09:37

US production (mostly Shale) is expected to increase from 11.4m to 15m bopd over the next 7 years....so, that alone accounts for 70-80% of the demand increase over the period....which doesn't leave much growth for the ROW....we really are in a Catch 22 now...OPEC are almost dammed if they do and dammed if they don't....they cut, the OP rises, Shale ramps up, and the OP falls.....