Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[colebrooke] 24/11/2018 09:27

Some perspective needed here Tullow Oil down from a high of 273p in October to 172p yesterday. Note Tullow has also been shorted significantly. Most mid cap oil companies have been smashed. It is not Premier specific. Recovery will come and once the trend reverses buyers will pile back in.

[steve73] 24/11/2018 08:43

Don't forget, the CB's were originally issued in May 2007, with a conversion price of 1582p, or corrected for the 1:4 stock split in 2011 of c. 395.5p. In 2012 the CP was renegotiated to 413p. The original CB's represented just under 10% dilution.

During last years refinancing the CBHs had the Co. over a barrel, and were able to drive a very hard bargain to get the CP down to just under 75p (resulting in almost 50% dilution).

Without the CBHs agreeing the Co would have defaulted on its covenants and could have been wound-up. The shareholder holders would have got nothing...

But I agree, we have not brought the debt down anywhere near as much as I'd have expected, especially since the CB debt was converted to equity, (although there are still a couple of sales to wrap up)... So where has the money gone?

The covenant test is based on both the debt and the EBITDA. What worries me is that as the OP falls, the EBITDA drops multiples of the OP, and so supports less debt... It's a 2 edged sword.

[deanroberthunt] 24/11/2018 08:05

This is why I'm disappointed with the level if debt reduction given how high it was for most of h2...should have been nearer $2.2bn....how can any company operatecwith this volatility...I doubt they'll remain at 3x if Oil remains at $59 or lower for a reasonable period...even with the hedges...and what then!!!...more CBs!!

[steve73] 24/11/2018 04:51

Has anyone here run detailed calc's to identify if we will miss our revised Covenant tests at the current oil price...?

The Q3 T&O update was reasonably confident....
"Premier continues to forecast year-end net debt of around $2.4 billion, with covenant leverage ratio expected to fall to 3x by year-end 2018 and reducing further in 2019, in line with guidance."

How will the rapidly declining OP impact the above statement..?

[cumnor] 23/11/2018 23:04

Agree Fitton. Not a share to trade but PMO in far better place than two years back. Added today and dont care how the price does next week, month. I've a few years target and would not be unhappy if POO stayed at this level for several months-shale is only marginal now wheras companies like PMO, Enq are still quite profitable and will continue to pay down debt-maybe slower-but lenders don't care as long as they do.
There is an agenda here, the Arabs are in on it (either paying Trump back for Khassogi support or sending another message to Shale investors) and I feel keeping it around here would have a real impact on lender sentiment in the mid-west USA not to overdo it. It may fall further-no bad thing again if one is not trading, as it deters investment and companies with decent reserves (like catcher) will eventually do very well-as the world still uses nigh on 100ml BOPD and POO wiill be back to 80s plus again. Putin and the Princes will ensure it will, as that is all they have got. Patience. imo

[vikingwarrier] 23/11/2018 23:01

Hi lodge I was once down £30k on a T20. I doubled up and came out £64k up. Don’t worry too much things can change very quickly

[fitton] 23/11/2018 22:23

Lodge.As already mentioned if you don't need the money short term then try not to worry to much.This stock is notorious for wild swings.The share price is hugely influenced by hedge funds.Two years ago this would have been a wild gamble but the share price really doesn't reflect the progress the company has made in the last two years.I don't think there is any investor here that would have said the share price would be 65p.Great buying opportunity.

[marvinridesagain] 23/11/2018 20:52

Lodge, it depends on how soon you need the money you invested.

PMO will come back; the assets speak volumes (Not the capability of its CEO) and will drag the share price back up at some point, but not until Jabbas insider mates have taken their pound of flesh.

The oil price sends PMO share price up or down. Jabbas sewer rats determine how the share price performs.

Hang in there, im in the same boat as many; lost a fortune due to insider corruption.

If the insider sewer rats close shorts then PMO will pick up, if not it will fall further, simples

[lodgeview] 23/11/2018 20:47

Thanks guys. Just feeling a bit bruised and battered today and being 20k down is hurting hard.

[lodgeview] 23/11/2018 20:18

Guys any advice to me?

[rbonnier] 23/11/2018 20:09

I doubt many have traded this on margin in the current environment.

[excellance] 23/11/2018 19:47

Squeeze until it squeaks, the private investors here must be suicidal by now...those trading on margin have lost their houses, wives, kids and sanity...

Sad to see. The bankers always win.

[marvinridesagain] 23/11/2018 19:39

Have to agree with Dean 19p is achievable due to corruption.

[up just a little bit] 23/11/2018 19:08

Trump is going to get poo as low as possible. Iran sanctions are not going to be observed by all so the best way to add pain is to cut the poo by 50%.The next biggest money earner in Iran is saffron accounting for 1%of the export economy. He can't afford another war so he will instigate implosion if at all possible.

[lodgeview] 23/11/2018 19:05

Leone I'm 20k down. Never been so down in all my life.

[rbonnier] 23/11/2018 18:57

This is worse than playing on line slots !

[leoneobull] 23/11/2018 18:50

I bought about £33000 yesterday. Down 15% in a day on poo wobble .

[whiskeyinthejar] 23/11/2018 18:32

Interesting that the main guys shorting oil (US banks) are also the same ones bankrolling shale.

Seems odd, but if you wanted Opec to drastically cut production, it's logical to want the price of oil as low as possible immediately before an Opec meeting.

[vikingwarrier] 23/11/2018 17:31

This is being priced for bankruptcy. It’s crazy cheap.

[shakudo] 23/11/2018 17:07

Nurse for Mr Buywell!