Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[fireplace22] 17/10/2017 16:47

Don't know how significant but BW Catcher now has been designated the destination tag of the Catcher field and there appears to be tug activity around.

[bakedbean57] 17/10/2017 16:32

Hammer Time

[begorrah88] 17/10/2017 15:24

...and there we go, softened all day and now kicked through to 63.5p

Back to VWAP by the looks of it.

Oh well, law of averages says we will get a return at some point

[begorrah88] 17/10/2017 15:21

Pushing down now into the 63p mark.

Makes you wonder what the share price would be without the rise in POO as they would have very little resistance, if any. Not that resistance is a hurdle if you have access to the book and an 'arrangement' with the MM's.

[marvin9] 17/10/2017 15:16

Told ya, if this was a sick dog they would put it down.

[marvin9] 17/10/2017 15:15

Tanker heading for Solan lol, they might bring back enough just to cover the shipping costs

[rogsim] 17/10/2017 14:45

The tanker Scott Spirit is heading for Solan - perhaps that news will give the share price a lift...

[begorrah88] 17/10/2017 14:19

All hugely irrelevant no?

SP completely controlled by hedgies [see today's usual constant stream of AT sells at 64p]and any gain in POO is being lost for PMO holders.

TD has created a zombie stock that is now a bond provider with an equity downside risk.

[leoneobull] 17/10/2017 14:08

Sorry people on question of hedging we are in backwardation so not in their interest to hedge...yet. Nice hedge at 62 to 65 would be good

[jelenko] 17/10/2017 13:05

Steve,
where did you get that dilution figure from? In the final refinancing update the maximum dilution is quoted at 5.1%

[steve73] 17/10/2017 12:15

IIRC, Nov last year was when OPEC agree to limit production from Jan '17... Not only did this give a lift to the O/P but it signaled optimism right across the oil co's... With the expected duration of cuts for just 6 months, by Jan it became clear it was too little too late, and the confidence was knocked out of all the oil co's.
PMO perhaps suffered worse than others due to our impeding refinancing, and now with almost 50% dilution looming from the CB's we are climbing through treacle.

[american idiot] 17/10/2017 11:55

I would still imagine a huge amount of uncertainty towards the end of last year.

Hardly shareprice rally kinda thing is it so no surprise PMO underperformed.

This year HAS to be better surely ? (He says tongue in cheek)

[begorrah88] 17/10/2017 11:46

As a stand alone Month November 16 was no different to the preceding or following with regard to the deferrals. Both expected and received as per the monthly update

1 November 2016

As anticipated, Premier has received a monthly deferral in respect of the test of its financial covenants with the test for the 12 month period ending 31 October 2016 waived and replaced by a test for the 12 month period ending 30 November 2016. Premier expects to continue to receive monthly deferrals until negotiations with its lending group conclude.

[american idiot] 17/10/2017 11:41

I think to compare with last year isn't appropriate considering the action regarding debt refinancing and the past financial position of the company.

ie...In Oct, Nov, Dec etc... 2016 PMO were having covenant tests deferred etc...

[begorrah88] 17/10/2017 11:25

Although the PMO chart for last November suggests quite the opposite.

Went down from about where we are now to mid 40's and didn't move back up until end of November.

During that same period POO rose $9 from $45 to $54

[jelenko] 17/10/2017 11:19

greg,

If you read the interim report under "commodities" the forward sales position is clearly stated. looks to me like 2 months ish worth of production. They are not totally stupid, they can see what we see and have a better handle on forward supplies than we do.
I agree with Loneobull regarding November and December. October is normally a nasty month in the markets, so far it appears to be consolidating ready for the next move up. The Santa rally usually happens and "if" Catcher is on plan and starts producing that could be the catalyst. It will also be year end and alot of Hedgies etc are paid on annual performance, so we could also have a "short squeeze" as they try to crystalize profit(if any) from short positions.
Put all of those elements into the pot

1) $60 oil?
2) Catcher producing
3) Short squeeze

and I feel 90p may be tested. However, as we all know anything can happen in the world.

[gregpeck7] 17/10/2017 11:07

If that is the case that's bloody awful. Although it guarantees the finaciers get heir cash pmo can't ride this wave. Should have hedged at 55 plus. I would personally wait for 59 before hedging. Explains why pmo is not reacting to the oil price though.

[leoneobull] 17/10/2017 10:51

I see big increases in November and December once it dawns on dim market that fundamentals are translating into improved balance sheets

[jelenko] 17/10/2017 10:27

The interim report gives the hedged position. It's not that much.

[fireplace22] 17/10/2017 10:17

This is the post re hedging (its by the landlord)


I've been slowly reading through the May Refinancing document (196 pages) as it make excellent bedtime material...!!

P28 of this document indicates that PMO could hedge up to 70% of its oil production at $50/bbl for 12 months, and 50% of its gas production for 18 months... There are also indications of minimum hedging aims, with a warning that if the O/P remains low it may not be able to achieve these levels of hedging...

Since the O/P has been consistently above this level for a few months, it might be reasonable to assume that the co. has by now fully hedged in line with these stated objectives.

If so, further increases in the O/P will only partly benefit PMO's bottom line. If they are fully hedged on oil for example, then clearly only 30% of the oil would be sold at the higher price.

This could perhaps explain why the share price often appears largely disconnected from the O/P..

[fireplace22] 17/10/2017 10:10

I read that, strange as I understood break-even (before efficiency gains etc) and pre Catcher was well above $50.

[begorrah88] 17/10/2017 10:01

Some posts the other day suggesting TD may have already hedged a lot of oil at a lower price. That would partially explain why any rise in POO is ignored by the PMO sp?

[begorrah88] 17/10/2017 09:57

We have been on a 1p per week slippage correlation with POO. We now have a 1p per day rate going on.

When POO was $58.2 yesterday we were 65p bid, now 64p bid - nothing else has changed