Premier African Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[vitec] 16/8/2018 14:20

Jungmana, he isn't going anywhere. My reasons for this thinking;

1. He could have become Chairman and relinquished the CEO role. He decided to do it the other way around.

2. This has become personal for him. He is seeking some sort of redemption for the monumental mistakes made over the last 2 years and wants to prove he was right all along.

3. He is by far the largest shareholder and wants to keep his fingers on the pulse.

4. PREM has been run on the basis of a personal fiefdom. When you have total control it is very difficult to hand the reins over to someone else.

The splitting of the Chairman and CEO roles was done IMHO for corporate governance and a certain degree of pressure foisted upon George. It also takes the pressure off that he is not the only decision maker. Collective responsibility as opposed to sole responsibility. If you also want to get into bed with partners they want to see that you have a corporate structure that works and that you cannot on a whim decide to go down a path they don't want to go. Sounds familiar doesn't it!

[tedoby2] 16/8/2018 12:39

So we know that Prem are supporting Cadence going through their due diligence at the moment and the deadline for bringing that to a close is just over a week away. We also know now that the plan is for MauCo to produce Lithium Concentrate initially as it's the quickest route to market. But then move on to produce Lithium Carbonate which is far more lucrative. Those close to the company will also know that moves are already being made to increase the licensed area by as much as two or three fold. All very positive.

As far as I can tell the main restriction to going the Condensate route will be the logistics in transporting the material from the mine to the rail terminal in Bulawayo of to a nearer one if possible. To my mind I can't see it being possible to transport more than around 250kt's/annum given the lorries have a payload 20 tonnes.

Hopefully we'll see the mining plan being to produce far more spodumene than pegmatite initally with it being the more valuable. But only by a small margin it seems. The spodumene floatation results gave 6.5% Li2O content and the pegmatite marginally less at 5.95%. So overall excellent results. Not to mention one of the drill cores giving us no less than 4.5% Li2O which could be one of the best ever recorded anywhere.

If all that's right and keeping the maths simple 250kt's of Concentrate will be processed from around 1.5m t's of ore at just over a 1% grade producing 15kt's of Li2O and from there the 250kt's of 6% battery grade Spodumene Concentrate.

Current off-take agreements for 6% spodumene are being entered into at prices of around $1,000/t. But according to some analysts those prices could treble over the next two to three years. Being conservative if it doubles then the revenue to MauCo during the short Concentrate period would be around $500m annualised. With no corporation tax to pay initally the 2% Royalty will make little difference in the calculation and I believe the credit for the Tantalum would easily cover the small loss attributable to the Metallurgical Recovery rate so no adjustment needed for that either in my view.

So with annual revenue at $500m and costs adjusted from the scoping study we could be looking at an "earnings" figure of at least $300m. From there using a P/E ratio of say 10 we get a Market Cap of $3bn for MauCo based upon an earnings metric. If Prem enters a 50/50 jv finally we therefore get to a notional contribution to Prems MC of $1.5bn.

Lastly if Prem has 9bn shares in issue say Prems share price contribution form MauCo in the short period Lithium Concentrate is being produced would be $0.165 or approximately 12.5p at today's currency exchange rate in around 2 years time.

Be that as it may as I say the Carbonate route is more lucrative by far. This route a 2m tonne ROM /annum would produce 20kt's of Li2O which is roughly 50kt's LCE. A projected annual revenue then could be 50k x $35k = $1.75bn if market price for LCE doubles. AISC's along with other costs (AIC's) are likely to be no more than $750 m/annum or so which would give MauCo a Market Cap of almost $1bn. Feeding 50% of that back into Prem from a 50/50 jv that would give Prem net "earnings" of $500m/annum . Then assuming a P/E of 10 is reasonable again and with say 10bn shares in issue that represents a MC of $5bn which would give Prem a share price contribution of about 37.5p. again using an earnings metric.

AIMHO & GLA

[1madmarky] 16/8/2018 05:58

Vitec - agreed, especially on the smug comment. It could still be that halting rha was purely to give himself leverage.
On Zulu, I just hope the drilling actually gets the project to a point where the outside world sees value in it. That has felt like death by a thousand cuts so far. GL

[vitec] 15/8/2018 23:48

madmarky, he not only looks like the cat that has got the cream he looks like the cat that has been told he is going to be fed gourmet meals for the rest of his life!

He was very confident and smiling and would even say smug. He seemed like he was bursting at the seams to say positive things but was reigning himself in so as not to give away any information that would not be appropriate to state at this time. Not seen George this way for a long time. Let's hope it is not another false dawn and there is substance to what he is saying. I remain positive, but it is also difficult not to be cynical and skeptical as we have been here before. Maybe it will be different this time. Talk of getting to 3p or 4p to my mind is pie in the sky. I would be happy with getting to half a penny and sustaining it.

[dmitribollokov] 15/8/2018 21:29

I will make a bet of £10k that this company raises at least once again before year end. Happy to make it legally binding, we can exchange details via private message and have everybody on this board as witness. Or if £10k is too much for one individual, you can get a syndicate together.

[1madmarky] 15/8/2018 20:54

And he is extremely confident that they will not need to raise any more working capital. I guess they could just call it some thing else.... but he does look like the cat who got the cream... might even break even.

[dmitribollokov] 15/8/2018 20:06

“Fully funded drilling program” how do they get away with it...

[doctor 69] 15/8/2018 19:24

Cobra , no prob, I expect the stock peel has to have gone soon and if not by Friday the exploring volume will clear it

[cobra786] 15/8/2018 18:34

Sorry doc got bit carried away
Buying was fantastic and share price still
Below .20
Was expecting higher

[doctor 69] 15/8/2018 17:11

cobra lets see how friday goes , proactive interview was good

[doctor 69] 15/8/2018 16:28

We started the day to buy prem was 0.195 and ending buying at 0.196 , so not really a down day

[doctor 69] 15/8/2018 10:25

The buying keeps coming , when news breaks this will fly and should hit 0.3 p

[dmitribollokov] 15/8/2018 08:14

That’s his MO - obfuscation, it keeps eyes off the real goings on.

[jungmana] 15/8/2018 08:07

The problem with George is he misleads investors. What George says and does are complete opposites. Anyone can verify this by going through his interviews in media and even rns's. Learnt a lot about the man over last 5 years and have had numerous correspondence with him. But at every turn he disappoints.

[dmitribollokov] 15/8/2018 07:55

If you haven’t seen those numbers before, think about them, digest them and then consider that the “world class asset” chat is just what enables the con to work.

[doctor 69] 15/8/2018 07:38

Interesting few days ahead .

[jungmana] 14/8/2018 22:45

"Bespoke furniture and a number of allied timber items are produced from timbers that are highly rated in both Germany and the UK. Located within the forest area, TCT IF operates a 28 bed lodge and a 9,963-hectare game farm and hunting concession. This concession is valid until 2065. TCT IF is expected to be fully self-sustaining and will contribute positively to cash flow for Premier as a whole."

from tct aquisition rns in 2016. now GR and his mates own that part of tct leaving prem with the limestone part that will require lots of money.

[jungmana] 14/8/2018 22:26

Lol ! I think GR travels first class every weekend to the 28 bed TCT game park in Mozambique that he and his mates now own.
Am no accountant but the amount of money raised in last 4 years and spent by GR and his buddies is just too much. A proper audit of this guy's could in my opinion reveal why he manages prem like a personal chiefdom

[the bull] 14/8/2018 21:54

Well you have to question the non execs, they should be studying the results and asking the CEO to justify. The new chairman needs to be less of a yes man I think. Dmitri, I believe you have raised some issues that holders do need to question, anyone agree? I do hold 25M by the way

[the bull] 14/8/2018 21:52

That didn't paste very well but the first figure is the latest figure and the second = 2016

The new chairman and new FD whoever that is needs to bear down on these costs. Are we paying for half of the Zimbabwe government to holiday?


I am a holder and a recent buyer, but these costs do need questioning