Managed to buy another decent chunk now at a little over 13p. You just got to love the trading numpties on here. After this morning RNS I did not think I would get a chance at this level again. |
Once the short term, small time, traders (who have now probably been caught on the HE1 spike) are out of the way, this will move up this afternoon. Staggering amount of news due in the next three months here..........starting next week! |
I like this bit. It confirms that testing has started. How's the satellite pictures shaping up? |
MOU-5 is expected to be drilled between 1 April to 31 May 2024 in order to avail of in-country well services that will remain following the completion of the Company's rigless testing programme, which is currently underway, thereby reducing mobilisation costs for well equipment and services. |
Also confirmed that testing underway. No additional funding required for the MOU-5 drill, which is an unexpected and very nice surprise. |
Smart move too, securing the rig ahead of Chariot, given their news this morning... |
Happy days , jurassic drilling confirmed , probably some time in May |
l and development programme would potentially open up opportunities to exploit our onshore proximity to the Maghreb Gas Pipeline, which is located less than 10 kilometres from the MOU-5 drill site. This is a significant advantage for any future potential developer of a gas find as it will reduce capital infrastructure costs and the lead time to "First Gas"For any future potential developer of a gas find - does that mean they are expecting to sell the asset? |
Very upbeat - 'continued success' stated! |
Very upbeat RNS, all looking very good at present. |
Well 1 week of testing should be gone tomorrow so potentially results announced later this week |
A couple more sizeable trades (assume buys) today as well. Does seem to be some accumulation happening, which will most likely accelerate next week. I reckon the accumulator has 10 trading days, at most. Will be an interesting watch. |
The force is strong here.
FWIW.
hxxps://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/other/reliance-on-imported-gas-grows-as-irish-production-drops/ar-BB1hFVny
"According to the CSO, gas imports represented 79% of the total metered supply during November, with production from the Corrib gas field and biomethane plants accounting for the remaining 21%" .
Be careful. |
This is interesting although 4 days in arrears: |
Thanks Keith. Had not realised they had said that after MOU 1! Lovely fault system in the basin. ONHYM have been responsible for keeping it under wraps so hopefully they are ready to expose the truth at least to the ONHYM preferred suitor likely lined up now and just waiting on flows. May be selling soon with contingent consideration on the Jurassic.
Had a big drink of water...yum yum. |
@MP - not just MOU-3 & -4. The whole system is charged from top to bottom, and the market has been told this for years, but has not listened. Right from MOU-1, which was bizarrely widely believed to be a duster, there has been a complete lack of understanding. It's worth re-reading old RNSs - for example 28th September 2021:
"The operations team, with significant Rharb Basin drilling experience, reported that the MOU-1 well encountered a very similar geological section to that of the Rharb Basin, with EVIDENCE OF GAS OVER SEVERAL HUNDRED METRES OF GROSS SECTION penetrated by the well." .... "the increase in mud weight was required to drill through a SIGNIFICANTLY OVERPRESSURED section".
You can take a horse to water.... |
Thanks for your input Keith . You were right about HE1 being able to announce a strike.
All action here in the next two weeks. If Guercif flows like the Gharb next door , as the geological comparison says it should, then very very happy days ahead. We just sit back and let it all unfold.
If you remember all the various sands at MOU 3 and MOU 4. Every single sand charged. PG knows what he is doing and was at the crest of this discovery on his second drill. No wonder Chariot have moved onshore …the country may never need its expensive offshore discovery. PRD are way ahead and thankfully not chasing bubbles in the Gharb. If she flows and with that fiscal backdrop, I don’t think PRD will ever own or lease one truck. |
from the bumpfth
"Produce combined flow rates at or in excess of 50mmcfgd from around 150m of reservoir intervals" |
 Share prices go up and down, often unpredictably. Undeveloped resources may or may not be commercialized, or not in the expected quantities or at the hoped for profitability. These are all well-known risks.
Market makers do not 'play games' or 'manipulate prices', as is frequently claimed here. MMs use algorithms to maintain a balanced book and maximise trading volume - that is how they make a profit. There are no malevolent dwarves trying to steal shares away from naïve private investors. Yesterday's sub-penny drop in low volume is irrelevant in the scheme of things, especially after a substantial rise over a short period of above-average volumes. Of course the usual suspects emerge from the woodwork proclaiming doom. I do not know if they are short term traders hoping to buy cheap, or even paid by someone else so that their masters can buy more cheaply. Whatever, it is also irrelevant - just remember that they are promoting their own interests, that may well be the opposite of yours.
Something that is worth concentrating upon is the effects on the value of PRD's assets due to the staged removal of risk. Lionel Therond is one of the most respected analysts working in the oil & gas sector. He was the author of the Fox Davies Capital note issued on 13th July 2023. here it is:
[...]
He calculates that the unrisked NPV10 of the MOU-Fan & Middle Sands is $1176.4M. That is their value today, assuming that 1/. They are producing commercially as planned, and 2/. The cash flows are reduced at a compound annual rate of 10%, to account for the time value of money. How do we get to 'unrisked'?
* Produce combined flow rates at or in excess of 50mmcfgd from around 150m of reservoir intervals. As you know that de-risking events will be in two phases - the first finished this month, the second next month.
* Agree a commercial contract with a suitable gas distributor. Again, as you know, the main terms have already been negotiated with Afriquia Gaz, the largest distributor in the country, that happens to be owned by Morocco's PM.
* Set up the CNG operation - once again, you already know that the money is there to do this.
* Secure an Exploitation Concession - PRD have said they should be ready to apply for this early next month, and given the influence of their partner and the urgent desire to produce indigenous gas, this should be granted rapidly.
Removal of these risks gives an NPV10 of £922M at fx rate of 1 : 1.275. With 565.2M shares in issue, that is £1.63p per share. Just for MOU-Fan & Middle sands. No Jurassic, no 'running room', no Ireland, no T & T.
By end of next month. |
Great. Let's do that. |
that question needs some more research from me.lets throw some ideas around and come up with a target figure so we all know what to look out for. |
ill certainly be piling in on the bell on a good result.it would run up for days.gl |
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