Polo Res.(See LSE:POL) Share Discussion Threads

[roomb] 16/11/2009 15:21

Bookmaker interested in uranium.

[soundbuy] 16/11/2009 15:18

Watching PRL 'crash' has become one of my hobbies.

[thailand] 16/11/2009 15:07

Hi everyone,just joined the club with a 40k buy. Now watch this crash!

[haff1] 16/11/2009 14:11

... most of the sells today - including as mine is registered are infact buys!! Steady buying and the share price drops again!!

[zangdook] 16/11/2009 06:51

Interesting, but I'm not sure how realistic that is given that PRL is small and ambitious and hasn't shown any qualms about having billions of shares in issue - I suspect SD would have other ideas of what to do with a large pile of cash.

I'll be interested to hear what they have to say.

[marben100] 13/11/2009 18:06

Here's one possibility (not saying it's likely, but it is possible). Any one of the events that I mentioned previously could result in Polo coming into a rather large amount of cash.

Once Polo has cash they could, for example, launch a tender offer for their shares as a tax efficient way of returning some or all of the cash to shareholders.

Here's an illustration. Let's suppose Caledon is sold for 100p/share. That would return ~US$105m to Polo (assuming convertibles are converted and sold), taking the total cash balance to ~$120m (~3p per share, undiluted) and the undiluted NAV to 8.5p/share. Polo could tender for up to 1/3 of its currently shares @ (say) US$0.11 (=6.7p)/share. That would cost $86m, still leaving a pretty comfortable $34m of cash... and INCREASING the NAV/share to 9.4p. I doubt that the share price would remain much below 7p if that were announced! [I've used a US$1.65/£ exchange rate].

...and Caledon only represents 21% of Polo's NAV currently. Do your own math if Extract went for A$15/share. ;0) [though in that circumstance Polo might just liquidate itself and return cash to investors - cf Galahad Gold.]

Cheers,

Mark
E&OE

[zangdook] 13/11/2009 15:05

Given that they're not at all likely to do an URU, what sort of thing could they do to reduce the discount?

I'm curious because, when URU announced they were planning to try to do that I was sceptical and failed to top up. My eyes were duly opened but they may be openable wider.

[marben100] 13/11/2009 13:23

eeza - that's my main reason for deciding to go to Polo's AGM: to try to find out whether Polo is likely to take any actions that may reduce the discount. ;0)

[azalea] 13/11/2009 09:40

eeza
For the share price to reflect the NAV, then clearly it will have to rise circa 50%. at which the immediate 'bargain' element would be removed'. However, from that point,when the NAV is progressively turned into earnings then the 'bargain' element will reappear UNLESS the share price rises even further. Next year could well see this scenario unfold.

[eeza] 13/11/2009 00:57

But only a bargain if the Sp reflects it?

[marben100] 13/11/2009 00:44

What I really like about Polo is that there are so many underlying parts any or all of which could add significantly to the NAV:

- Extract: if bid for now, my expectation is for double Extract's current share price If not, and it progresses to production, we could be talking 4x the current share price IMO, eventually.
- Caledon we know is in bid talks right now.
- Mongolia: valued at nothing by the market... but Peabody's involvement does kinda suggest that it might be worth SOMETHING. Who knows how big that something might be?
- GCM, ahem, ahem... my least favourite component but if it DOES gain approval for its project its share price is likely to multibag.

...and without any of that happening we have an NAV of 7.4p (undiluted).

That's what I call a bargain.

Cheers,

Mark

[azalea] 12/11/2009 18:55

marben
Thank you. A very, interesting article indeed which could well be the reason behind Dattels, et al, recently buying shares like there was no tomorow, recently @ 5p. Peabody is as big as they come in the world of coal and PRL could not be in better company. For me its a simple case of 'follow the money'.2010 will be a very interesting year.

[marben100] 12/11/2009 18:40

With thanks to moniclub here:

A nice highlight on Polo's Mongolian potential in the FT today:

[tadska] 12/11/2009 17:01

You can try:)

[solsticefire] 12/11/2009 16:53

Can i hold you to that?

[tadska] 12/11/2009 16:42

So, i will sell my @ 254p

[solsticefire] 12/11/2009 16:31

I'll sell all mine @ 53.4p

[tadska] 12/11/2009 16:08

who is selling now???

[azalea] 12/11/2009 15:12

when PRL coal assets in Mongolia are turned into production, sales and profits we will see some action in the share price Given the large amounts of directors' purchases and placing cash raised, they and major holders will be looking a return on their monies.

[lizzie ii] 12/11/2009 14:50

Maybe Dattells was short of cash and wanted to buy a coffee? LOL

[meandy] 12/11/2009 14:00

I know we are having a bad day, the board is full of sells, but we must be getting desperate when somebody sells 12 shares for 53.4p !!

[max101] 12/11/2009 11:19

have held here for a few years now and something that i could never figure out was why is the share price so low.

i really cannot see any downside here at all. could someone enlighten me ..