Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[joe say] 25/10/2021 07:47

Reiteration of FY being ahead of consensus - what's not to like at the moment?

[grahamg8] 25/10/2021 07:46

Not too shabby considering the benign conditions over the period. PLUS operations seem more resilient than the market is giving them credit for. On that basis the P/E should be higher.

[base7] 22/10/2021 17:13

The Market is clearly not too excited at the prospect of Mondays Q3 update but there has been some volatilty across some of our Markets so lets hope we have exceeded expectations & the outlook for FY21 is also ahead of expectations,including the dividend.

[djokovic1] 06/10/2021 10:14

Thanks SJ.

I reviewed all the H1 2021 stuff recently. Bought back in today on the confluence of lower stock price (doesn't make much sense) along with positive update from management. Doesn't hurt that Q3 was more volatile than Q2 with flat to down markets.

I think similarly on CI on Q3 / Q4 i.e around $160. I think customer PnL is more likely +ve for Plus than negative in Q3 so my best guess would be $180 for Q3. And then back to $160 for Q4.

So total 2021 revenue of $686 (main difference with your estimate SJ is on Customer PnL). EPS $3.3 or £2.4/share.

Of course well above cons. estimates that regularly seem brainless for Plus.

[sailing john] 04/10/2021 16:00

Positive TS today - ahead of latest consensus revenue forecast published 9th Sept (Lib, Peel, Jeff) for 2H of $210m Vs my Guess (lol) of $280m (being Quarterly $160 CI - $20 Cust P&L)

So the scores on the doors for guessing! 2H Rev
As at 21st May - Analysts $131m - SJ $287m (11th Jun) - inc Q2 est
As at 9th Sept - Analysts $210m - SJ $280m (17th Aug)
4th Oct - Ahead TS next analyst guess awaited! - my forecast $280m unchanged!

My Q3 Rev remains at $140 (and Q4 $140)
Will update scores on the doors post Q3 and next Analyst guess!
Model unchanged for FY will update post Q3
Rev $626
Selling $241
Admin $51
PBT $334
As always interested in other views

I remain out having sold on XD!!! day
Still on watch waiting for another opportunity
GL - SJ

[joe say] 04/10/2021 07:58

Hear what you say boonboon - but tbh I prefer it like this - gives the board room should they fall short of the exact revised forecast that only they know

[base7] 04/10/2021 07:45

It seemed likely that they were being conservative & holding something in reserve which has now been revealed by simply saying that we are ahead of expectations full year forecasts being upgraded-which also means that dividends will increase.Hopefully our US acquisition is going well & we should hear more with 3rd quarter results on 25/10.

[boonboon] 04/10/2021 07:27

Nice trading update, but little detail

[coxsmn] 29/9/2021 20:14

"Stock returns are likely to be much more muted going forward, while volatility will remain the same, according to Jason Klein, chief investment officer at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center."We asked 3 major investors what happens next in markets - none see big returnshttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/29/big-institutional-investors-dont-see-large-stock-returns-continuing-and-are-getting-more-active.html?__source=androidappshare

[base7] 28/9/2021 19:01

The volatility continues & our share price remains within is recent narrow trading range .3rd quarter update due next month will be interesting & too early to expect much ,if any, comment about our US acquisition but I presume that they will prosper out of volatile US markets

[base7] 21/9/2021 07:51

Recent global volatility in all markets should be good for our bottom line,which should be demonstrated by the next trading update

[frazboy] 03/9/2021 12:20

We've let it go!

[groveman1] 03/9/2021 11:06

frazboy
you haven't misunderstood my (first) post. But if you look at my second post you will see that I freely admitted I misunderstood (about selling). I got it wrong and admitted it.
I was still right about buying.
Anyway, can we let it go?

[frazboy] 03/9/2021 09:14

Groveman

"I was simply trying to emphasise the need to understand the significance of the XD and RD and how they work in relation to dividend payout when buying or selling around those dates."

If I understood your post correctly you're saying that you have to buy before the XD date, and hold until the record date to qualify for the dividend on a share? If so, my brokers have been incorrectly paying me dividends for years. I always get paid if I hold until the date of XD (which is nearly always a Thursday). Due to the way the dividend process works, if you hold on the date a share goes XD, then due to the T+2 settlement period, you will also be a holder (even if you've sold in the interim period) on the record date. That's my understanding, and I'm guessing that's my brokers understanding too (or something along those lines). In fact, if you hold a long SB with IG for example, they credit the div to your account on the XD day.

Apologies if I misunderstood your post.

[base7] 02/9/2021 13:47

Our Interims were only 2 weeks ago & our outlook statement was positive with an expectation that we would beat expectations.Markets have been stable since & as much as we prosper more when volatility dominates Markets there is no reason why our outlook would have dramatically changed over 2 weeks.Clearly something has gone seriously wrong with CMCX & it is likely that heads will roll, if that hasnt already happened.

[tiswas] 02/9/2021 08:25

Thanks.

That is a surprise, thought they were the quality player in the sector. I got out of IG on the USA aquisition and only a small PLUS holding so not really up to speed with them.

[mighunter] 02/9/2021 08:18

CMCX profit warning.... More the sudden about face from Management compared to their trading update in July.

[norfolk enchance] 02/9/2021 08:18

CMCX profit warning

[tiswas] 02/9/2021 08:15

what have I missed?

[base7] 31/8/2021 23:44

If the current rate of buy backs continues we will have utilised the new facility about halfway through the maximum timescale & if our business continues to prosper & our substantial cash pile continues growing I suspect the buy back will be increased & extended

[groveman1] 30/8/2021 16:03

Thanks for the support chucko1. Of course it wasn't meant as advice - more an observation inviting comment. I was simply trying to emphasise the need to understand the significance of the XD and RD and how they work in relation to dividend payout when buying or selling around those dates. 
As for the use of CAPS -sailingjohn I don't understand your point - do you think that was some form of convention for shouting? I was merely trying to emphasise the difference between before and after the critical dates. The ADVFN text box does not provide bold or underline which otherwise I could have equally used. Sorry to have breached protocol with such an egregious use of textual emphasis!  Btw, sailingjohn,  I note you added your own caps in the extract you pasted from investopedia! Shocking!
Anyway, to the arguments: I was right about buying in at the last minute to qualify for a dividend. Clearly I was wrong about selling. But having seen many confusing /ambiguous  or simply badly worded pieces about selling around XD/RD  I was simply wanting to err on the side of caution.
Best wishes and  'dyor' . I'm just sorry  that when I  'dmor' - I misinterpreted it!
Cheers

[chucko1] 27/8/2021 18:32

Can financial advice actually end with "Hope I'm wrong for those who sold this week..."?

For if it were financial advice, the recipient would understand it to be no more than a guess and ignore it.

But having read the Groveman post, it would be my guess that he has guessed incorrectly. I hope that I am correct.

[simplethesis] 27/8/2021 13:46

Well said SJ.

[sailing john] 27/8/2021 13:26

groveman1 - Can I politely suggest that you check the content of your post above, especially as you are giving financial advice that is incorrect in CAPITALS!

You might find this link helpful or Google many others
"If shares are sold ON or after the ex-dividend date, they will still receive the dividend."

SJ

[groveman1] 27/8/2021 09:47

Pretty sure anyone selling shares this week on XD day (yesterday) or today (especially) which is Record Date will NOT qualify for their divvy. You have to hold on the Record Date (ie RD not XD) by cob which means effectively you can't sell till Monday earliest - ie AFTER RD. Similarly anyone buying in yesterday (on XD date) is too late to earn the dividend. Has to be BEFORE XD.

Hope I'm wrong for those who sold this week...