Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[profit_thirst] 30/6/2021 08:15

Share buyback ended, immediately followed by a gradual reduction in share price So I suspect that buyback was propping up the price, and that’s all.

[sophia1982] 28/6/2021 21:33

What's going on here? I would expect this to react positively to increased volatility, but this does not seem the case in this period. Is there any other regulatory issue on the making??

[sophia1982] 28/6/2021 21:32

What's going on here? I would expect this to react positively to increased volatility, but this does not seem the case in this period. Is there any other regulatory issue on the making??

[base7] 16/6/2021 18:53

Bought more earlier today having reviewed the recent trading statement again & ahead of a possible trading statement & Interims early in Aug

[scepticalinvestor] 15/6/2021 07:43

update soon?

[simplethesis] 11/6/2021 12:42

[1] buyback finished [2] Canaccord published. I haven't seen the note but the obvious bear case, as previously articulated by Mr Bates, is that the company only does c. 120p in 2022. I think it will be more than that.

[sailing john] 11/6/2021 12:32

Thanks st - I'm always cautious with my model
Added a few more, no problem buying so presumably a seller in the market driving price down recently - need to sit on hands now!
SJ

[simplethesis] 11/6/2021 12:12

....so we can deduce that it's not rocket science. Which should mean that others expect a beat.

And yet this stock follows earnings.

[simplethesis] 11/6/2021 12:08

I think they might do a bit better than that on CI in Q2. The run rate of Saxo after May was only 11% down on Q1, and remember Plus500 had a lot of new customers in Q1.

[sailing john] 11/6/2021 11:47

Hi - I'm back in today at 1431 - intend to hold through 1H results

My latest model (some guesswork as difficult to model likely Cust P&L now and I am not as active on research anymore) gives-

2Q Rev $150 (170-20 cust P&L)
1H Rev $353 eps 122p
FY Rev $633 eps 225p
Analyst consensus from plus website is Rev $477 eps 154p

As usual very cautious from Analysts (we have been here before!) and therein lies the opportunity imo

Simplethesis - I note from LSE BB that you have an eps of 228p for this year which is amazingly close to my number. If you are still around here happy to share detail to see if I can refine my model furher.
SJ

[boonboon] 10/6/2021 07:23

Excellent results from cmcx today.

[simplethesis] 18/5/2021 08:22

They've said it's a Q2 announcement

[rhatton] 18/5/2021 08:08

When does the share dealing side of things come online?

[elpirata] 16/5/2021 22:37

evening bob

[bargainbob] 16/5/2021 21:04

Plus one coins ready to rocket

[simplethesis] 21/4/2021 16:49

In case anyone has missed this, there's a presentation accompanying this morning's acquisition and entry into the US futures market, on the Plus500 website.

[joe say] 21/4/2021 07:50

But what a market to get into eh?

[grahamg8] 21/4/2021 07:46

Agree JamesSmith, Cunningham is a minnow, minimal downside. The opportunities are huge. As growth in the PLUS established markets tapers the USA will become an important part of the business in 2-5 years. I will be watching for the ARPU and AUAC numbers in a few months time to see just how valuable this deal might be for the share price.

[base7] 21/4/2021 07:45

No dilution,earnings positive expected in year 1,entering the lucrative & potentially massive US market, demonstrates growth ambitions - what is not to like ?

[jamessmith23] 21/4/2021 07:09

Was slightly concerned when I saw the acquisition based on the cost of the recent IG acquisition, but presently surprised at the $30m price tag. Downside is very limited as this is what I'd expect Plus to earn a month or 2, but could be beneficial for the group if it works out, so happy with this.Would like to see acquisitions in the share trading space at some point also but imagine that's on their radar already.

[joe say] 17/4/2021 08:42

There is a forthcoming AGM - I've registered my votes today (with some against within the remuneration sections)

[dumbbunny] 16/4/2021 16:39

Dare I say it but it certainly appears the senior croupiers could be gaming their employer, the house, as well as the punters at the tables.

[dumbbunny] 16/4/2021 15:39

dennislevine16, exactly. If there’s enduring value in previous cohorts and customer trading performance nets to zero in the medium term, why is it that after five quarters of $200m+ of revenues (CI), with combined new customer cohorts over this 15 month period that are greater than 2016, 2018 and 2019 cohorts combined, revenues are forecast to fall for the rest of the year to be below the quarterly revenue rate of 2019, at c. $90m per quarter and, the outer years have hardly moved?

There is a pattern of pinning the outer years as low as possible, for as long as possible, until the remuneration packages for senior management have been fixed.

chucko1, like you, I have no issue with people earning obscene amounts of money (good on them), however, I do have a problem if it is to the detriment of shareholders.

We have a share price that has derated by nearly 50% over eights years. This surely has not been helped by the pinning down of the outer years and guidance that is often illogical and all over the place. This makes the quality of earnings look poor, unstable and barely growing. It’s a recipe for a low multiple and that’s exactly what we have.

Far better to guide based on cohort historical statistical outcomes and zero customer performance.

[simplethesis] 16/4/2021 15:05

chucko1 - Yes, indeed. The elements here are twofold. The 2021 earnings number has been allowed to rise through 2020, but by an amount that is tiny compared to the 2020 marketing investment and the revenues which should flow therefrom in year two. Secondly, there is a suspicion that the low annual bonus and LTIP targets are driving communications.

We could also note that the CFO expects to be awarded his discretionary tax bonus on 4 May. It would be priced at 1450p, as at the end of 2020. I am sure we all remember how cautious Q4 guidance was.