Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[sophia1982] 03/11/2020 16:04

Apologies for my question: I am not a Cfd trader. Can anyone explain in plain terms which kind of volatility benefits Plus? For ex., VIX is these days at about double the historical average. Should this not benefit Plus? Or instead what benefits Plus is more related to abrupt market movements and especially bear markets?

[mighunter] 02/11/2020 18:54

Thanks ST, appreciate the time you've taken to expand on the mechanics of the interaction there. Has certainly aided my understanding ??

[rhatton] 02/11/2020 18:31

Simplethesis, are Liberum not guiding to $140 million Customer income with a $40 million hit from trading performance leaving a $100 million in revenue for Q4? So total $890 million for FY?

What’s the highest estimate of FY revenue this year from any broker? If they say inline then could it be inline with the highest estimate?

[mighunter] 02/11/2020 17:43

Spot on rHatton. The same broker note also references that Plus have already exceeded their previous FY20 EBITDA expectations after just 3 quarters and that 3Q20 revenues were 133% ahead of expectations. Not exactly a picture of accuracy from Liberum to date. Again, there's being conservative and then there's being conservative to a fault.

[rhatton] 02/11/2020 17:19

Have just finished reading the broker note from the other day. Alludes to what simple has been saying in terms of the earnings for next year

“Despite the likely increase in the latent earnings potential of the platform during the quarter, we leave our FY21 and FY22 forecasts unchanged at this stage given the uncertainties, and will revisit these once we have a sense for how the business is likely to perform in a more normalised environment.
1950p TP implies 20% upside potential
Based on our updated forecasts for FY20 the shares trade on a PE of 4.8x and offer a dividend yield of 8.0%. We see the latter as particularly attractive given the upside that could prevail should our 4Q20 estimate prove too conservative, and the fact that on more normalised earnings the stock is just trading on just 11.1x CY21 earnings and 6.6x EV/EBITDA.
Given the performance of the platform during the quarter, it is clear to us that Plus500 is the leading operator in the retail CFD space. As a result, we believe that the current discount at which it trades to its peers will unwind, and set our target price using a 13.0x multiple. We apply this to our FY21 earnings and add a small premium to reflect the supernormal returns being generated in FY20, part of which is likely to be returned to shareholders via the dividend. Our unchanged target price of 1950p implies upside of 20% from the current share price.”

[dumbbunny] 02/11/2020 11:19

The level of success next year will largely be determined by the number of new customers acquired and the $ amount of marketing investment made during 2H20 & 1H21.

[groveman1] 02/11/2020 10:35

OK, misunderstood. Anyway, assuming your anticipated
EPS does trade at 10x then we are still looking hopefully for an share price of £20.

[simplethesis] 02/11/2020 10:25

groveman1 - I said "make". I mean EPS. It will trade to > 10x that number, in my opinion. The company continues to invest at a high level to drive growth.

[groveman1] 02/11/2020 10:18

I hope you meant >£20 a share?

[simplethesis] 02/11/2020 10:08

The company guided for Q4 CI that it would be a "gradual reduction from peak levels". But it then had Liberum publish a $100m number. My understanding is that this is a "join the dots" problem. The company had decided that it would go for an "in line with expectations" outlook statement, and that necessitated that their broker have an in-line forecast. A "gradual reduction from peak levels" means $165-185m of CI, by my estimation.

Still, on the plus side, someone bought this at below £14, and it will make > £2 a share next year.

[chucko1] 02/11/2020 10:05

All of the selling appeared to be computer-driven and the volume in that 10 minute period equal to all of Friday's. It was very difficult to buy - executed a small amount [impossible to buy a reasonable amount] at 1403 when the shown offer was 1397. Similar to other OB transactions, so all a little out of control.

[djokovic1] 02/11/2020 09:54

I added here. share price move down doesn’t make much sense with volatility in markets.

[rhatton] 02/11/2020 09:33

They’ve essentially guided for a weak quarter, can we expect anything else? Unfortunately

[markbelluk] 02/11/2020 09:31

I was thinking the same?

Short position/s increasing maybe???

[hatfullofsky] 02/11/2020 09:30

WTF is going on !!!!

[elcapitalthegreat] 02/11/2020 07:53

scum, should be arrested

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[johnkettleyistheweatherman] 31/10/2020 21:43

Admitted he enjoys having his 6 year old sister on his kneesDisgusting inbred

[elcapitalthegreat] 31/10/2020 21:21

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[johnkettleyistheweatherman] 31/10/2020 20:19

But you are pig filth

[elcapitalthegreat] 31/10/2020 19:32

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[johnkettleyistheweatherman] 31/10/2020 17:08

Double filtered now .That means the second filter cancels out the first filter .Like two negatives make a plus .How utterly bizarre is this religious nutcase elmoron .

[elcapitalthegreat] 31/10/2020 13:51

no one is listening scumbags

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