After a quiet start to the year, VIX is creeping up again. Currently around 16. But I think we already know that markets are starting to get a little tetchy again. |
Plane-issued share currently just above 78m & by next Fri will be about 78m-ie reducing by 150-160k share per week based on current buy back.
To achieve a successful listing in the US we should be demonstrating substantial US growth & it will be interesting if we receive US revenue figures for the first time at the impending update . |
US Dual Listing:
The Annual Report published on 2 April notes the London office of US law firm Latham & Watkins LLP as a new legal advisor. This would indicate to me that a US dual listing is well progressed and likely imminent. My guess would be sometime around September.
There is also the likely IPO in London or New York of e-toro later this year. They have indicated they are seeking a valuation above $3.5bn (twice Plus500’s current valuation). In some ways e-toro (Israeli FinTech established 2007) have a very similar profile to Plus500 but without the 10 years+ track record of significant profits and shareholder distributions of $2.1bn. If they get that IPO away at $3.5bn+, Plus500’s current valuation at $1.8bn looks extremely low. |
Trading update due soon in respect of Q1 & it should continue the recent positive theme & it will be particularly interesting to see how we are progressing in Japan & the US |
Isn't the concern that they are on the wrong side of this trade if all their clients are long bitcoin? we only make money if it goes down quickly like it has the previous rally's. |
Google search confirms they do trade cryptos |
Don't think they trade cryptos anymore. |
Plus made exceptional profits during the last crypto boom & it will be interesting to see whether our revenues & profitability will similarly increase this time |
Around 75p Ex Div today |
Any known reason for the drop this morning? |
I was simply disagreeing with your point that EPS equates to growth. It doesn't,
The maths is pretty simple for this. |
Yes but those buybacks have to be funded from cash - PLUS generates massive amounts of cash and this has allowed them to do buybacks at such scale. However, even adjusting for buybacks, earnings have still been on an upward trend over the long term, although this can obviously vary depending on the year you choose as your starting date. |
Riverman, EPS is a great indicator of growth, until a company buys a load of its shares back, then it's useless. $275m of buy backs last year wasn't it |
Don't have figures in front of me but EPS is way above what it was in the pre pandemic 2017 - 2019 period (with the exception of the blowout year in 2018) so don't think right to say there's a lack of growth. Earnings are obviously very lumpy but the long term trajectory is clearly upwards. |
It must be down to the famous kiss of death: BUY 1880p.
The outlook says in line with forecasts. Forecasts are marginally falling - near enough flat - for the next two years for EPS, dividend and free cashflow. The latter is around $260m+ or £210m+. If it keeps churning out cash at that level in less turbulent times, even with some reliance on interest on cash balances, surely they are not expensive, and provide an ongoing good income, coupled to insurance against more turbulent times eventually? |
Share counts may be much lower now compared to 2017 as so many buybacks over the years? Is that taken into account when compare the profits? What is the comparison on eps basis? |
I would say the main business of a Cfd provider is to make money on the spreads. So from a conservative prospective I would exclude anything that doesn’t relate to the main revenue of the core business. If interest generated from customers were paid out as dividend (as a hypothetical policy) the shareholders could get more % then plus. A bad business will put money into a checking account and make a profit. Another reason why I don’t include it. I misquoted when I said 2018. I meant 2017. Cash flow excluding movements in WK was $188m. 188m in todays money is $236m and that mostly from spreads and a lower interest rate environment. I’ve held these, and not sold a single share, since 2017 seems as you’re quoting how well you’ve done. |
You can't just exclude customer trading and subtract that from earnings. It's not as simple as that - lower customer losses (or gains) will naturally lead to more trading activity. Similarly for interest - trading activity will tend to pick up as cash levels fall. The key measure is client income and that has been pretty steady at around 300m for the past 3 half year periods. I'd say that's not bad given lack of volatility in markets, and much better than the likes of IG or CMC (although that has very recently picked up after a string of profit warnings). I suspect today's fall is simply profit taking after strong run, coupled with the lack of any further upgrades (although probably way too early in the year for that).
2018 profits were boosted by the surge of interest in bitcoin - I remember as did very well out of PLUS
that year. Was very much a one-off, and not really a good comparator for how they're doing today. |
Lack of buyers I guess |
Adjusted for: inflation, interest income and customer trading income (all of which you should exclude as the business is about people trading). This is the worst year on record for profit. 2018 earnings were higher (adjusted) even though the new regulations came out. No new financial information about the acquisitions. |
Can anyone tell me what was wrong with these results that a drop of 80p 4.5% is merited |
Plus 500 is a changing animal moving into the competitive US market and B2B. I also think the company has not provided quarterly statistics that it has done in the past. So from my point of view the black box syndrome has increased. I remain a happy shareholder but would be wary of my holding becoming more significant. |
seadog - including the specials, the interim was 73.44c and final 94.62c, making 168.06c in total. 105.78c was paid in calendar 2023 - Feb and last Aug, finals and interim. I'm quoting last Aug and today's yet to be paid, interim and final, for the last financial year. It is a little odd the way they described it in the results. |
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