Plastics Capital Share Discussion Threads

[mr ashley james] 18/8/2005 02:41

Joe,

At last the reversal from the trendline, nice cup and handle formation building, got latest presentation, love Internal Rates Of Return on RSA PGM Projects, still bullish on Panton NT Australia Palladium Price dependent, this might be a very substantial winner over next 36 months, ie a really big winner IMHO.

Volumes whilst pathetic building up slowly.

Closing prices
Closing prices are displayed for the last 5 days on which the security traded on ASX within the last 6 months.

Date Last % Change High Low Vol *
17 Aug 2005 0.135 -3.57% 0.140 0.135 225,000
16 Aug 2005 0.140 3.7% 0.140 0.140 110,000
15 Aug 2005 0.135 -3.57% 0.140 0.135 117,215
12 Aug 2005 0.140 0% 0.140 0.140 52,500
11 Aug 2005 0.140 0% 0.140 0.140 35,000


All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 10/8/2005 01:33

Joe,

Hello, looks like I was correct ASX:PLA already up AU$0.05 ie 3.60% to AU$0.145.

Well past time too!

I understand John Lewins is back in South Africa I await news.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 07/8/2005 21:11

JR,

This is IMO going to send the Platinum Price into orbit, RSA Produces 80% of the World's Platinum.

If no Platinum Production US/Japanese/European Motor Manufacturers have to use Palladium, knock on effect Palladium goes through the roof.

Now you can use Palladium for Diesel autocatalysts one way is up for Palladium too IMHO.

Platinum Australia with the only Platinum Group Metals Measured and Indicated Resource in Australia at Panton should go up rapidly if the Aussies catch on rapidement!

Here is to hoping!

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

South Africa hit by massive gold mining strike
JOHANNESBURG (AFX) - South Africa's leading mining union hit the world's top
gold producer with its largest strike in 18 years as workers walked off job.
The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), with some 80,000 members in the
gold mining sector, started a national strike at 6:00 pm (1600 GMT) after it
declared a wage dispute with employers last week.
"We are on strike," NUM spokesman Moferefere Lekorotsoana told Agence
France-Presse, after miners had earlier rejected an offer of a five percent pay
hike, which fell below the eight and 12 percent rise they were seeking.
Chamber of Mines chief negotiator Frans Barker, who represents the
employers, confirmed that the mass action went ahead despite attempts to reach a
last-minute settlement.
"Unfortunately, the strike is going ahead," Barker said.
"There has been discussions ... (but) NUM has not responded to that except
to say they will report to their members and give feedback tomorrow (Monday).
"It is very important that one should find a settlement and stop the
strike," he added.
Lekorotsoana said the latest offers had yet to be put before union members.
"Most likely it will happen tomorrow."
The smaller, mainly white Solidarity union, which has about 10,000 members,
will join NUM in the protest beginning Monday.
Barker said the different gold mining employers had made new offers, details
of which he did not want to disclose, during informal talks at the weekend.
A third trade union, the United Association of South Africa, with a 16,000
membership, will decide Monday whether it will participate in the strike.
Johannesburg-based T-sec brokerage mining analyst Nick Goodwin has said the
strike would have a "serious impact on an industry that's already on its knees."
"At the moment the rand has weakened and the gold price has picked up by
some seven percent, so mines are just breaking even, but there are no profits,"
he earlier told AFP.
Miners earn a minimum monthly wage of 2,200 rand (338 US dollars, 277 euros)
in South Africa.
The country is the world's largest gold producer, despite a nine percent
decline in output in 2004, yielding a total of 342 tonnes, according to the
Chamber of Mines.
A cornerstone of the South African economy, gold mines have felt the pinch
of a stronger currency, foreign exchange controls and a depletion of resources,
prompting fears of large-scale job losses in the industry.
Its share of world gold production now stands at around 14 percent, down
from 80 percent in 1970.
fgb/rl/ec


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[mr ashley james] 04/8/2005 19:18

Wiganer,

If the ADVFN Level 2 screen is correct there were only 250,000 shares left on the offer at 15.50 Aussie Cents last night at close.

So probably unless new orders appear the amount of stock left is around AU$38,750 which equates to £16,810.99 at current AU$2.3054=£1.00 Rate of exchange.

Here are the charts for reference:-

Daily:-





All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[wiganer] 04/8/2005 17:15

Ok- rang my broker (TDWH) and they confirmed they will deal Aussie stocks on my account, but I need to give them a limit order, which they'll try to fill. Will do a bit more research and then maybe have a punt. Am very bullish re Palladium, just need to be convinced this is the best play- have previously looked at Stillwater, but didn't like the numbers, especially their forward sales at depressed prices.

[josereyes] 04/8/2005 14:03

Cheers Ash looks very good.
lets get the party started ;-)

[mr ashley james] 04/8/2005 12:43

Wiganer,

Here is the link:-

I have found this set of links to denominate brokers trading online Equities in Australia:-



All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[wiganer] 04/8/2005 12:42

Thanks Ash- I have an online dealing account with TWDH, but they don't seem to deal AUS stocks online. Will have to give them a call. Am currently long on Palladium itself via a small spreadbet.

[mr ashley james] 04/8/2005 12:40

Wiganer,

The expensive way is normally via any of the highstreet banks Barclays, Lloyds TSB,HSBC etc, who from experience charge two spreads, a probably better way is via TD Waterhouse who are at least open until 9.30pm so you can put orders to buy or sell just before market opens in Australia, and it gives you online trading of the TSE and US Markets until TSE/TSX/AMEX/NYSE/NASZAC close 9.15pm GMT.

Obviously the best way is to have your own Australian Broker, higher up the thread I put links to online brokers I am aware of.

Personally I think it does make sense for active Mining and Natural Resource Players to have local brokers in Australia, South Africa and Canada to take out the Exchange Rate Risk and access the proper mining plays before they come and list on AIM in London, and especially the one's that decide not to list here due to plethora of utter rubbish listed on AIM and transaction costs ie UK Broker Fees,costs of investing in market maker controlled markets, Stamp Duty, PTM Levy and the other revolting investor rip off paraphenalia of the LSE.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[wiganer] 04/8/2005 12:16

Ash- how would one buy PLA? My online broker doesn't do AUS stocks.
Cheers
W

[mr ashley james] 04/8/2005 12:09

Roland,

If I had to guess I would say someone stagged last placing taking down shares at AU$0.11 and selling them at AU$0.14 to AU$0.15

Probably on past form Smith Newcourt with 3,750,000 shares at a logical guess (I doubt lead order Anglo Pacific with 30% ie 7,500,000 units would).

I have noticed roughly 1,000,000 per week ADV, in fact week before last noticed individual days with close to 1,000,000 shares traded circa 960,000.

So IMHO any overhang even if it is Smith Newcourt/RAB nearly gone ie total tap of 3,750,000 shares placed more or less IMO so logically there will be no break on the share price thereafter.

Average Daily Volume analysis circa 200,000 shares per day ie 1,000,000 per week yesterday 04/08/2005 196,000 traded

Closing prices
Closing prices are displayed for the last 5 days on which the security traded on ASX within the last 6 months.

Date Last % Change High Low Vol *
03 Aug 2005 0.140 0% 0.140 0.140 51,414
02 Aug 2005 0.140 0% 0.145 0.140 175,000
01 Aug 2005 0.140 -6.67% 0.150 0.140 339,000
29 Jul 2005 0.150 0% 0.150 0.150 78,000
28 Jul 2005 0.150 0% 0.155 0.150 303,300

* Volume of shares shown represents only those shares traded on ASX.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 04/8/2005 04:09

Roland,

Cup and Handle Formation IMHO and starting to rise from Trend Support line any news on views re Panton Calcine Leach Process Technology and Patent on Technology Joint Venture with Lonmin Plc LSE:LMI?

Currently ASX:PLA up 3.60% plus AU$0.005 at AU$0.1400/AU$0.1450

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 03/8/2005 15:33

Tywocky,

This is what is driving the PGMs right now increasing Chinese Jewellry and Industrial Demand coupled with reducing Amplats and exist PGM Bushveld production from the majors like AMPLATS JSE:AMS



AngloPlats's costs disappoint
By: Gareth Tredway
Posted: '27-JUL-05 17:16' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004



JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) --Anglo Platinum's big three mines, Amandelbult, Rustenburg and Union showed lower production and higher costs for this half year to June compared with the corresponding period last year.

But the chief executive of the world's largest platinum producer, Ralph Havenstein, says turnarounds take time.

"If you look to the end of 2006, things will look a lot better," Havenstein told Mineweb on Thursday.

In February the company implemented a 500-day turnaround strategy at Rustenburg and is starting one at Amandelbult, according to Havenstein. So, it is still early days in the strategy.

The three mines supplied about 68% of the company's 962,800 ounces of steady-state platinum production for the half year, which was down 5% compared to the first six months of 2004.

Rustenburg's output dropped 15.3% to 229,600 ounces, Union was down 2.9% at 155,700 ounces and Amandelbult down 13.7% to 269,800 ounces.

Mining costs increased to R4,240 per platinum ounce at Rustenburg from R3,863/oz last year. Union's costs were R5,125/oz from R4,531/oz and Amandelbult's rose to R3,480/oz from R2,885/oz.

Total mining unit costs increased by 13.3%, while refined unit costs advanced 3.2%. South Africa's inflation (CPIX) ran at an annual rate of 3.5% in June, according to the Reserve Bank.

Havenstein says the company still expects to reach its 2005 target of 2.6 million ounces of platinum, while unit costs are also expected to be reduced on the higher production although that is dependent on wage negotiations, which are currently underway.

Strong platinum prices helped push headline earnings up 34.6% to R2.01 billion. The higher price contributed R556 million of the first half's R620 million headline earnings increase.

The company declared a 20%-higher interim dividend of R4.80 per share.

[mr ashley james] 01/8/2005 13:30

Coolads,

Yes I am certain that Black Economic Empowerment Legislation is a political hot potato for Mbeki and cronies trying to tiptoe between Xhosa ANC, Swazi and Zulu Inkatha never mind immigrant Mozambique Labour issues in RSA.

At the end of the day 21% to 26% of any project is going to go to local BEE Institutions, but it is a delicate balancing act between attracting Foreign Capital, maintaining Management Skills sets and connections, afterall the Mining Sector means RSA get in excess of US$5,000,000,000 PGM FOREX Earnings and US$5,000,000,000 Gold FOREX Earnings pa alone never mind Diamonds, Coal, Base metals etc revenues.

The big issue here is Rand Devaluation in order to increase local Rand Revenues and keep Labour and other Local Operating Costs under control.

There is huge relative value in RSA in Production Ounce Terms versus US$ Market Capitalisation,Price Earnings, Dividend Yield Valuations comparative to the World Stage especially North American Miners.

Mbeki has to realise mining capital has migrated to the Former Soviet Union and other massively Emerging Mining Markets and RSA is no longer a Witterwatersrand that in 1970 produced 1,000 Metric Tonnes of Gold per Year, ie it is not longer the dominant mining central it once was.

Nor does it have a monopoly on UK/USA Uranium supplies, things have changed.

So RSA must compete for Foreign Capital in order to prosper.

Fair enough RSA is the dominant Platinum force, but Russia has an aweful lot of Alluvial and other Platinum deposits from the Urals to Siberia (there are at least Five Platinum Group Metals Refineries in Russia) and he knows he must tread carefully due to the huge importance of Resource FOREX Earnings as the dominant force behind RSA GDP and hence the quality of life for all in the country.

OK So UK/USA not as important as was indeed Russian Capital is the big issue in RSA right now, afterall the Vladimir Potanin/Amplats/Implats/Lonmin Oligopoly game must go on.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[coolads] 01/8/2005 12:32

again - i have no reason to believe this should be the case with pla. just pointing out the flip side.

[coolads] 01/8/2005 12:31

hi - i'm new to PLA but have some experience of business in RSA. the black empowerment legislation/compliance has been getting vexed of late. again, i do not have direct experience in mining (telecom, yes!): there are hundreds of businesses that get by with BE, doing anything from genuince support/employment for black causes to lip-service (fronts setup just to comply) but particularly when lobbies smell blood, it can get deeply political.

[mr ashley james] 29/7/2005 18:39

Platinum Australia Spreads its Wings in South Africa

By Stephen Clayson
24 Jun 2005 at 02:10 PM EDT


LONDON (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Platinum Australia [ASX:PLA] is moving toward a London listing this autumn with hopes that this will facilitate its elevation to the ranks of South Africa’s PGM producers thus allowing the company to pursue its longest held goal - constructing Australia’s first PGM mine.

The company initially rose to prominence in the year 2000 when it attempted to develop the Panton project, which would have been the Australia’s first PGM mine. However, the mine was rendered uneconomic by a period of declining platinum prices accompanied by an adverse shift in the parity of the Australian dollar versus other currencies.




While Platinum Australia is keen to one day revive the Panton project in the light of the current strong PGM price environment - financial remodelling to assess the viability of this is currently underway - it is now pinning its hopes for corporate growth on the development of two interesting projects in South Africa.

Platinum Australia’s Managing Director John Lewins is more sanguine than many regarding the onerous regulatory requirements of operating in South Africa. He feels that the company will be able to comply adequately with the Black Economic Empowerment stipulations of the country, as well as cope with its increasingly disorderly administration. He is also unworried from a project viability point of view about the strength of the rand.

Lewins, a mine construction specialist, believes that PGM mining in South Africa has become somewhat problematic of late, in that the increasing depth of mines and the focus on narrow reef mining schemes with scant potential for mechanisation has negatively impacted the economics of some operations.

Deeper South African PGM mines tend to take a long time to develop and require high initial expenditure; and, once operational, suffer from high operating costs. The latter is partly a result of the heat present at depth in that part of the world, and the former partly because low operating costs are often harder to achieve where extensive mechanisation is unfeasible, particularly given the wage inflation currently afflicting parts of the mining industry in South Africa.

Platinum Australia intends to avoid these difficulties by focusing on deposits that are amenable to highly mechanised open cut and shallow underground mining, placing its emphasis on accessibility of resources rather than absolute magnitude.

Lewins also goes against what he sees as the ‘conventional wisdom’ in South Africa that PGM deposits smaller than around 4 million ounces are uneconomical. He believes that so long as sub 4moz deposits are shallow enough and other geological conditions are right, they can be more than viable.

Platinum Australia is currently focused on the development of two South African PGM projects, Smokey Hills, located in the eastern limb of the legendary Bushveld, and Kalplats, situated to the west of the Bushveld in the Kalahari.

The project closest to production is the company’s 80% owned Smokey Hills, where a 40-50 hole resource definition drilling programme is to begin next month with a preliminary expectation of outlining at least a 1 million ounce deposit. This will form part of a bankable feasibility study that is expected to be completed around Q2 of next year.

Early predictions are of a 95,000oz per annum operation requiring $35 million of initial capex and operable for around $210/oz PGM produced. Production would take the form of a combined open pit and underground operation, and could be achieved at an initially low level in June 2006, with full production to follow a year later.

A secondary possibility for the development of Smokey Hills is a joint venture of the project with African Rainbow Minerals and Anglo Platinum, whose Modikwa project is situated nearby. Discussions are underway regarding this option, which would allow an increase in projected annual PGM output to 150,000oz and an extended mine life, but would take longer to come on stream.

Somewhat further from production is the Kalplats project, which consists of seven separate deposits and three prospects that currently amount to a 1.4moz high grade PGM resource with some potential for expansion through further exploration. Envisaged again is a combination of open pit and underground exploitation, for a substantially higher capex of between $80-$110 million, operable for between $220/oz and $205/oz. Annual PGM production of between 193,000-275,000oz output is modelled under this scenario.

Platinum Australia has agreed to acquire up to 49% of the Kalplats project from African Rainbow Minerals, and will be responsible for funding and managing both pre- and full-feasibility studies on the project. Platinum Australia will also provide the right to utilise its proprietary Panton Process.

The Panton Process was developed for the eponymous Australian project in order to improve the economics of mining refractory PGM ores, but may also confer economic benefits on the exploitation of conventional mineralisation. Whether this is the case or not will be ascertained under the pre- and full-feasibility studies, the latter of which is targeted for completion in early 2007. Following this, production could be achieved, according to current estimates, by April 2008.

Success in its South African endeavours is sorely needed by Platinum Australia in order to ameliorate the generally poor performance that has characterised its share price since its inception in the year 2000.

But if the company is successful in its quest to become a bona fide PGM producer, and given its prudent strategy of establishing lower cost production in order to withstand any future fluctuations in the prices of PGMs, then its share price could be well placed to move significantly into the ascendant.

[pecker1] 29/7/2005 18:20

Ash,

This is worth reading:



Makes the PLA prospects in SA look very interesting by comparison. Nothing on palladium though which I find surprising as its role as a platinum substitute will be reinforced by the rising platinum price.Perhaps everybody still believes there is a big palladium stockpile somehere out there.

[mr ashley james] 29/7/2005 14:15

Tywocky,

Green across the Commodity Price Screen Today, Au US$428.90 Pt US$897.00,
Pd US$194.00, Rh US$1,930.00

By my calculations the basket PGM Price on the Bushveld is probably US$777.88 per toz today on Kroondal Platinum Mines Limited model.

Looking Good.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)