Plastics Capital Share Discussion Threads

[mr ashley james] 17/7/2005 18:12

Wendy,

I have a slight problem with accurately valuing this deposit at the moment because I do not have the grade split between Platinum (Pt), Palladium (Pd) and Rhodium (Rh)and I know that the Kalahari Ultramaphic Intrusive is a separate Ultramaphic from the Bushveld which tends to average roughly 60.61% of PGM Grade (Pt), 30.30% of PGM Grade Palladium (Pd) and 9.09% of PGM Grade Rhodium (Rh), I tend to ignore the lesser PGMs like Ruthenium (Ru), Osmium (Os) and Iridium (Ir) because in reality their Commodity prices are pretty low and they represent normally a small revenue percentage (In fact to my knowledge only Northam Platinum Limited JSE:NHM identify these three PGM Splits and revenues).

Secondly Kalahari Platinum "KALPLATS", RSA Stand Alone 100% Basis:-

KALPLATS

Using the Bushveldt model which currently yields a basket PGM Price of US$761.06 per toz I come to:-

Measured and Indicated Resource

75,230,489 x 1.42g/t=106,827,294 grammes=3,434,747 troy ounces as opposed to ounces (31.1035 grammes=1 troy ounce)x assumed average RSA basket PGM Price of US$761.06 toz=US$2,613,917,426

Total in Situ PGE US$2,613,917,426

Development Valuation Average 11.40%=US$297,986,587
Potential Average Upside if Producing Mine 20.80%=US$543,694,825

Producing Mine Valuation alternative US$3,000 per annual troy ounce of production=80,000-90,000 toz pa ramped up to 160,000-200,000toz pa

At 80-90,000toz pa US$240,000,000 to US$270,000,000 increases to 160-200,000 toz pa US$480,000,000 to US$600,000,000

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 17/7/2005 17:44

Wendy,

No I do not agree, Panton is perceived to be economically viable at a Palladium Price Of US$350 per toz, and now that the DNSC 1,100,000 toz Pd and Gokhran 300 Mt Pd ie 300,000,000 grammes or 9,645,217 troy ounces approximately Pd overhang has been cleared allegedly I am confident we will see US$350 per toz soon enough.

I love rarity and I stress Panton is the one and only measured and indicated PGM Resource in Australia, it's rarity value as the only domestic Australian PGM funnel for ASX investors cash means logically the price would go up massively if my call is correct as Australian Investors and Funds hedge RSA Political uncertainty with perceived very low political risk Australian PGM Assets.

Anyway on to Kalplats bare with me whilst I do my numbers.



All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 17/7/2005 16:36

Wendy,

Firstly Panton, Australia Stand Alone 100% Basis:-

PANTON

PGE

14,300,000 Mt at

Pt 2.20 g/t 31,460,000 grammes ie 1,011,462 troy ounces at US$864.00 per toz =US$873,903,168
Pd 2.40 g/t 34,320,000 grammes ie 1,103,413 troy ounces at US$182.00 per toz =US$200,821,166
Au 0.30 g/t 4,290,000 grammes ie 137,927 troy ounces at US$420.50 per toz
=US$ 57,998,304

Total in Situ PGE US$1,132,722,638

Development Valuation Average 11.40%=US$129,130,381
Potential Average Upside if Producing Mine 20.80%=US$235,606,309

Base Metals

14,300,000 Mt at

Ni 0.30% ie 42,900 metric tonnes 15 months seller US$13,500 per Mt
=US$579,150,000
Cu 0.08% ie 11,440 metric tonnes 15 months seller US$2,740 per Mt
=US$31,345,600

Total In Situ Base Metals US$610,495,600

Development Valuation Average 2.40%=US$14,651,895
Potential Average Upside if Producing Mine 7.20%=US$43,955,683

Combined Total PGE plus Base Metals

Development Valuation Average =US$143,782,276
Potential Average Upside if Producing Mine 7.20%=US$279,561,992

Producing Mine Valuation alternative US$3,000 per annual troy ounce of production=80,000 toz pa

At 80,000toz pa US$240,000,000

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[wdurham] 17/7/2005 16:31

Ash -

There is also a Minesite presentation now available, given a couple of weeks ago. Interesting to listen to, from a guy who is clearly not a professional presenter - just a bog standard mining engineer. He takes a few pops at the geos which is quite amusing! Minesite have changed their method of recording and archiving this stuff, and you now get a proper webcast as well as the actual slides.

You will need to register, but it's free:



One comment I particularly ilked was that if the Bushveldt were in Australia, they wouldn't be able to afford to mine it....

Can you really legitimately give Panton an asset valuation all the while it's in mothballs awaiting better palladium prices? Might be better just to stick to the S African assets for the time being.

[mr ashley james] 17/7/2005 16:22

Wendy,

I am going to try to value Panton and Kalplats as Development assets as follows using just an average conservative valuation of 11.40% of Contained In Situ Metal PGE Value and 2.40% of Contained In Situ Base Metals Value:-

This obviously pre supposes Economic Viabilty ie Commercially Viable Palladium Prices above US$350 per toz in market to deal with high Aussie Miner Labour costs relative to RSA.

PANTON




"The stock is fabulously well spread between the only PGM Measured and Indicated Resource in Australia Panton at 14,300,000 Mt at 5.20 g/t PGE (PGMs plus Au) 74,356,000 grammes ie 2,390,728 troy ounces of contained in situ precious metals plus Cu, Ni etc and balanced by the extremely attractive Kalplats wide 20 metre intersection open pitable PGM Resource of 3,340,285 troy ounces at 1.40 g/t or high grade zone 1,392,329 toz at 3.60 g/t open pitable on the Western side of RSA and the Bushveld Western Limb Smokey Hills Development Project which looks very promising in addition plus Blue Sky at 24 Rivers ie Exploration Potential."

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 17/7/2005 16:16

There is a report issued by Mining Business Digest in 2000, with an article actually listing the values paid for mining deals worldwide in The Mining Journal 15th December 2000, which sumarises ore reserve acquisition costs by North American companies during the 1990's. A Decade of Deals analysed 429 transactions (including 314 gold, 45 copper and 34 gold-copper deals), the numbers make interesting reading:-

END-1999 GOLD PROPERTY ACQUISITION COSTS (US$/OZ)
------------------------------------------PROPERTY TYPE---------------------
--------------------------Exploration-Development-Production-Corporate
Normal Expected Lower Limit--US$ 3------US$ 20------US$ 45------US$ 70
Expected Average-------------US$ 7------US$ 33------US$ 60------US$ 80
Normal Upper Limit-----------US$10------US$ 40------US$ 75------US$100

Lower-% of price*------------1.0%--------6.9%-------15.6%-------24.2%
Average-% of price-----------2.4%-------11.4%-------20.8%-------27.7%
Upper-% of price-------------3.5%-------13.8%-------26.0%-------34.6%

Note Upper and lower limits are for an "average" acquisition, and are often exceeded for various reasons. Source:Mining Business Digest. *End-1999 price of US$289/oz.
This is the equivalent table for Copper:-

END-1999 COPPER PROPERTY ACQUISITION COSTS (US$/LB)
--------------------------------------PROPERTY TYPE----------------
----------------------------Exploration---Development---Production
Normal Expected Lower Limit--US$0.005------US$0.015------US$0.045
Expected Average-------------US$0.010------US$0.020------US$0.060
Normal Upper Limit-----------US$0.020------US$0.030------US$0.085

Lower-% of price*------------0.6%-----------1.8%----------5.4%
Average-% of price-----------1.2%-----------2.4%----------7.2%
Upper-% of price-------------2.4%-----------3.6%---------10.2%

Note Upper and lower limits are for an "average" acquisition, and are often exceeded for various reasons. Source:Mining Business Digest. *End-1999 price of US$0.837/LB.

[mr ashley james] 16/7/2005 21:49

US to stop DNSC pgm sales - 13th July 2005

Read more about the platinum group metals markets in Johnson Matthey's bi-annual reviews click here.
The US Defence National Stockpile Centre (DNSC) says it will stop all sales of platinum and palladium while it seeks to build up its pgm holdings.

The centre says it has ceased all further sales of the precious metals until the end of the financial year, which finishes at the end of September.

A spokesman told Platts that stockpiles were running low, with supplies of palladium at virtually zero.

"All of the palladium is gone; there is nothing left," he commented.

There is around 8,380 oz of platinum held in other government agencies, and also 16,000 oz of iridium with the DNSC.

Back in 1999 the DNSC had 1,099,428 oz of palladium, before its sales programme began.



© 1998-2005 DeHavilland Information Services plc.

[mr ashley james] 16/7/2005 21:38

Wendy,

The things I like about this stock that immediately come to mind are:-

(1)There are currently around 125m shares in issue post placing of 25,000,000 shares at AU$0.11 raising AU$2,750,000 gross.

(2)Peter Allchurch the Chairman has recently bought 1,000,000 shares at AU$0.13 ie AU$130,000 he has "The Owners Eye".

(3)The stock is fabulously well spread between the only PGM Measured and Indicated Resource in Australia Panton at 14,300,000 Mt at 5.20 g/t PGE (PGMs plus Au) 74,356,000 grammes ie 2,390,728 troy ounces of contained in situ precious metals plus Cu, Ni etc and balanced by the extremely attractive Kalplats wide 20 metre intersection open pitable PGM Resource of 3,340,285 troy ounces at 1.40 g/t or high grade zone 1,392,329 toz at 3.60 g/t open pitable on the Western side of RSA and the Bushveld Western Limb Smokey Hills Development Project which looks very promising in addition plus Blue Sky at 24 Rivers ie Exploration Potential.

(4)I think Palladium at circa US$182 per toz is going to go to US$750 per toz over next Three years now Vladimir Potanin of Norilsk Nickel MSE ticker code GMKN has cornered the Palladium market via aquisition of controlling interest in Stillwater Mining Company refer ticker code AMEX:SWC

Rationale in 2004 A new Palladium Jewellry market was created using Palladium per SWC Market is 750,000 troy ounces, and I believe China alone represents 600,000 toz 2004 forecast to rise to 1,200,000 toz 2005 ie I think the Palladium Jewellry market will hit 1,350,000 toz this year around 22.13% of Global Palladium Demand of 6,100,000 troy ounces.

(5)I think that Palladium at US$182 per toz and Platinum at US$864 per toz are going to converge as demand squeezes supply now both US DNSC and Russian Gokhran Stockpiles have been consumed and stock overhang 2000 to 2005 cleared.

(6)I like the IRR of Kalplats on US$540 basket PGM Price 52% and Smokey Hills 109% at US$620 basket PGM Price. By my calculations the average PGM Basketprice on the Bushveld today is around US$761.06 per toz PGM ie Pt, Pd, Rh without Ru, Os, Ir and Au loadings or any base metal credits for Ni, Cu etc

(7)I think John Lewins a Mining Engineer who has I hear put four mines into operation before knows his stuff which is extremely important when investing in development assets.

(8)At AU$15.65m market cap roughly I believe this has 10 bagger plus potential over next 30 to 36 months at a guess although undoubtedly there will be share dilution via placings en route to finance Bankable Feasibility Studies, Corporate Expenses and Field Work/Drilling etc to delineate Resources and Reserves.

(9) Fully diluted including options I come to market capitalisation of AU$15,649,408 at current AU$0.12 shareprice I consider this a steal for three PGM Development Assets if my call on Palladium Price is even half correct.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 16/7/2005 21:14

DELETED BY ADVFN

[cautiousone] 09/7/2002 14:42

Thanks for all your replies and info'. Still waiting on Currys to deliver the prize then I'll know more.

[logica2me] 28/6/2002 10:41

I would need to know the image resolution value as well as the plasma content per square centimetre.

If the latter is greater than 3.57 then the value will be increased by the sheer dynamics of the force-resolution shield.

If the factor is smaller than 1/2 then the the value will drop as the overall velocity of the images will increase accordingly.

[paddyfool] 28/6/2002 10:02

All retail plasmas are 16/9. You can get 16/12 from pc specialists but if youre looking for one which is 37 or 42" you will struggle.

[cautiousone] 28/6/2002 00:19

I've had the very good fortune to win a Panasonic TV worth around £4,000. However I would prefer to sell it but wouldn't have a clue as to who buys this sort of TV. Does anyone posting here work for an electrical retailer ?? If so are plasma TVs mainly bought by businesses such as pubs and hotels or do fairly affluent private customers make up the greater proportion.

Any info' gratefully received.

[crystalclear] 27/6/2002 21:05

Paddy
Do you know if they are all 16/9.
I really want a 16/12 (4/3) for my computer.
Imagine editting an A4 portrait document on a fat-face screen.

[paddyfool] 27/6/2002 20:29

Plasma screens are awesome! I have a new panasonic and its fantastic. They are the new must have accessory. If you have a 42" screen you can probably sell it on for around £3000 Panasonic have been running a promotion recently selling them for around £3400.. A friend of mine would be very interested in buying email me on [e-mail] if you are interested.

[crystalclear] 27/6/2002 18:52

I am interested if it is not a 16/9 (fat face) screen.
I want a 4/3 (=16/12) PC shape screen.

I bought a new graphics card for my son's PC and it didn't work, so I added it to my PC. End result is I have two screens and I'd like to have my ADVFN monitor permanently on the wall and pretty big.

[ebeing] 27/6/2002 18:26

I thought flat-screen panel TV's that you can hang on the wall were the next thing to get into .....

[clerman] 27/6/2002 17:21

LOGICA2ME
What a good idea ............................

[logica2me] 27/6/2002 16:37

Put it on QXL online auction site !

[little tyke] 27/6/2002 16:02

what is a plasma?

[supergirl123] 27/6/2002 15:34

I actually thinking of buying one.

What size and Model is it ?

And how much do you want for it. You can email me on [e-mail]

[wuggs_uk] 27/6/2002 15:31

I've got a plasma TV, they're cool, paid £5K for mine. I've seen them up on Ebay you could try there. If you set a reserve then you won't have to part with it for a quid if nobody really bids for it :)