Phytopharm Share Discussion Threads

[gnomet2] 17/12/2012 14:38

Good find Mrs. Just bought £ 3000 worth.

[tez123] 17/12/2012 14:34

Mrsapeslaptop,

This news is huge,surely they have to RNS this ASAP.

[mrsapeslaptop] 17/12/2012 14:17

um clarification needed from the company.

we've got orphan drug status for ALS. and my take is that we may have a funded trial through to end of phase 3 next year.

[mrsapeslaptop] 17/12/2012 14:12

A Clinical Trial of Cogane in Patients with ALS is a three-part seamless phase II/III, randomized, double blind, placebo controlled trial. Cogane, Phyopharm's lead drug, has demonstrated efficacy in preclinical models, including the SOD1 mouse model. The current study will evaluate Cogane as a potential treatment for ALS, while selecting optimal dosage. Participants will be on Cogane, or placebo, for 40 weeks in parts 1, 2, and 3. A total enrollment of 180 patients is projected for the first two parts, with 140 in part 1 and an additional 40 in part 2.

Drs. Glass' and Shefner's proposals were selected for funding by NEALS/NCRI review board. We are excited to collaborate in this new exciting and promising research!

[mrsapeslaptop] 17/12/2012 14:08

F*C*. did I miss an RNS ?

we are into a phase II/III trial for Cogane in ALS

[mrsapeslaptop] 17/12/2012 14:03

n addition to the clinical management grants and drug discovery contracts, The ALS Association is supporting two novel clinical pilot studies involving people with ALS with the Northeast ALS Consortium (NEALS) Clinical Trials Network. Jonathan Glass, M.D., and Christina Fournier, M.D., with Emory University in Atlanta, GA, along with Merit Cudkowicz, M.D., and James Berry M.D., in Boston, MA, will work together to determine whether they can identify a subset of people with ALS that respond to immune suppressing medication. Additionally, Jeremy Shefner, M.D., Ph.D., with SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY will test Cogane, a small, non-peptide agent that can penetrate the brain and spinal cord, which has been shown to improve the number of functional motor units and increased the life span in mouse models of ALS.

[mrsapeslaptop] 17/12/2012 13:59

near the bottom

[mrsapeslaptop] 17/12/2012 13:59

this is news to me.



funding from lou gehrig association this month

[cjl2112] 17/12/2012 11:12

Could be looking at a massive spike from here, if the news is looking as good as i think it will be wouldn't be surprised to see this bought out by a major.... All imo good luck.

[mrsapeslaptop] 17/12/2012 10:44

so a year end massage of the share price or is Linda Greensmiths news due.

[mrsapeslaptop] 28/11/2012 14:25

no probs for me.

we are due Linda Greensmiths Lou Gehrig update before the year end.

rummaging on the MNDA assoc website they are all off to a big conference in Chicago 5th- 7th December.

my searching skills arent up to whether she is presenting anything.

[algernon2] 28/11/2012 12:19

gnomet,good to see you in feisty form here as well as on the Oxb BB.
MrsA you appear to be in the wars both here and on the Summit (summ) BB.
Might I recommend a Flak jacket for Xmas.

[gnomet2] 28/11/2012 04:24

Might well be tempted in by further price falls though - but with less extreme expectations than you.

On the other hand, if it falls like a stone maybe that could indicate a leak of bad news considering the trial will become unblinded about now.

But there again that might just be what they want us to think. :-)

[gnomet2] 28/11/2012 03:51

MrsApeslaptop 25 Nov'12 - 12:58 - 264 of 266 0 0

"well for PD & ALS there is no disease modifying treatment currently. which cogane may be. so 8% market share seems light

MrsApeslaptop 26 Nov'12 - 00:40 - 265 of 266 0 0

actually I will take you to task.
there are NO disease modifying treatments for PD aor ALS. preclinical suggests these do. therefore it will corner the market IF successful."



The analysts will obviously have factored both its merits and limitations into their projections, and re your IF caveat, their 25% figure for likelihood of success implies an ultimate potential for PD of 4x their (edit )valuation for that (maybe 6x if you want to quibble over inflation/discounting for the future ) – not your fantasy of 200x.


ALS will not need huge funds to market. $20m typically sees an orphan drug to market. I expect the PD licence to fund ALS, glaucoma re trial & P61

I don't know where you get that figure from – it sounds just like the regulatory admin fees to me - but I can tell you that drugs with huge $200 mill plus trial costs have got orphan drug status. It might confer certain admin/tax/exclusivity advantages but it doesn't do away for the need for very rigorous proof of safety and efficacy.


"icence deals typically equate to peak years revenues. (milestones plus royalties)."

?? In my book peak revenues mean peak royalties, which generally occur 4 years after market launch.

"I stand by 200* potential."


What's with this weird * of yours ? Since you haven't corrected my assumption I take you to still be claiming potential 200x current share price !!!


"I shorted this at 6 quid very happily as overvalued. It has far more value now at 9p than it did at 6 quid."

So long ago off my records, but I bet you there are a hell of a lot more shares in circulation nowadays, so hard to judge.


"Edison is for people to lazy to do their own research. :)) only 3 months to see who is right."

TOO, not to, for goodness sake! No we won't – even a very successful phase II result won't justify your 200x potential.

Quite apart from their own expertise, the market value projections by Edison and the house broker will be informed by prestigious market research bodies like Datamonitor and Global Insight.


I suspect you overrate the preclinical results. Approx 40% symptom reduction in monkeys given neurotoxins to simulate PD might sound good, but has often failed to translate to similar effects on humans tested in placebo controlled phase II trials. By way of caution, OXB's Prosavin reported 80% reductions but produced results too disappointing to get a deal from its phase I (human) trial. Edit - And Neurologix got 40% reductions even in its human phase I s, but although it got 23%, 10% above placebo, in its phase II , couldn't get a partner and went bankrupt.

Edit- I like the fact that Cogane is targeting early stage patients, but nevertheless, briefly zapping monkeys with neurotoxin isn't a brilliant model for the actual disease in humans.

Also indications so far from ALS, glaucoma and dementia have been rather mixed.

[bla1se] 26/11/2012 13:57

£6 would be just grand..

[mrsapeslaptop] 26/11/2012 00:40

actually I will take you to task.
there are NO disease modifying treatments for PD aor ALS. preclinical suggests these do. therefore it will corner the market IF successful.

ALS will not need huge funds to market. $20m typically sees an orphan drug to market. I expect the PD licence to fund ALS, glaucoma re trial & P61

Licence deals typically equate to peak years revenues. (milestones plus royalties). I stand by 200* potential. I shorted this at 6 quid very happily as overvalued. It has far more value now at 9p than it did at 6 quid.

Edison is for people to lazy to do their own research. :)) only 3 months to see who is right.

[mrsapeslaptop] 25/11/2012 12:58

well for PD & ALS there is no disease modifying treatment currently. which cogane may be. so 8% market share seems light

[gnomet2] 25/11/2012 02:47

Sorry if I seem a bit rude, but I've wearied of refuting irrational bull commentary and interpretation on biotech forums – the OXB one in particular

In this case your figure suggests that you think PYM's products could be actual cures for the diseases that will corner their whole markets and do away with the need for other treatments. - and that PYM won't need to get development partners who'll siphon off most of the revenue in return for the huge spending needed to try and get the products to market. (And if things go well, PYM is such a small fry outfit I'd be surprised if it wasn't taken over way before anything got close to market anyway ).

Acc to Edison Research , PEAK market share for PD is 8% and for glaucoma just 2%. - and the market has learned over the decades to apply a hefty discount to analysts' forecasts.

Don't get me wrong here – I quite fancy PYM's chances of getting through this phase II for Cogane, but there's obviously a big downside risk and as yet I don't want to commit.

[gnomet2] 25/11/2012 01:42

If by 200* you mean 200 x present share price you're being so unrealistic I feel a dialogue with you would be pointless !

[mrsapeslaptop] 23/11/2012 15:59

its worth reading the full release on the website.

P61 next stage will be ready next period.
market sizes estimated
PD $3Bn
ALS $2Bn for an effective treatment
Glaucoma $3Bn

so I think we have 200* potential vs current SP

[ten bag ted] 23/11/2012 15:02

"Recruitment into CONFIDENT-PD Phase II clinical trial of Cogane(TM) in untreated patients with early stage Parkinson's disease was completed in April 2012 and the last patient is expected to complete the trial in late November 2012. Headline results from the trial remain on track to be available in February 2013."

[mrsapeslaptop] 22/11/2012 11:32

results out.


The results from CONFIDENT-PD, expected in February 2013, represent an important milestone for the Group and are eagerly awaited. Initial discussions have been held with potential partners and plans put in place for the next steps in the development of our pipeline assets, be that alone or in partnership with other companies, to ensure that we are well positioned to extract maximum value for our shareholders."

[gnomet2] 12/10/2012 12:31

"On revisiting the Alzheimers trial data, it appears to have been skewed by the placebo control group improving memory, and the trial not being long enough."

That observation (in your second link) was made more than 6 years ago.

I think the recent big jump was simply due to the share price having fallen far too low when it was around 6p. That's what tempted me in at the time - though with hindsight I took profits too early.

[mrsapeslaptop] 11/10/2012 14:39

some research.

we are awaiting the next news from Linda Greensmiths team on the mode of action in ALS.

This separate research paper on ALS was published in conjunction with her


basically overexpression of amyloid protein is a precursor to ALS.

Cogane/ Myogane are known to down regulate this damage


so this may be the method of action. I suspect Linda Greensmith's paper has been produced hence the price action.

On revisiting the Alzheimers trial data, it appears to have been skewed by the placebo control group improving memory, and the trial not being long enough.

Raising the intriguing possibility that it may be revisited for another trial.