Phytopharm Share Discussion Threads

[madmonkflin] 19/1/2012 21:41

maybe astra zeneca would fancy a bite at phyotpharm, no doubt they'll be interest in the test results when they're made public.

[madmonkflin] 19/1/2012 07:23

steady, wouldn't want the share price to go up too much in one go ;)

[baldeagle5] 18/1/2012 23:30

Directors buying would show faith....

[mrsapeslaptop] 17/1/2012 17:27

I genuinely believe Sanofi & possibly Genzyme will take this drug.

its going to be a genuinely exciting quarter at last.

I have massively understated the size of the ALS market. an effective drug would be in the $1Bn- $2Bn range, and a licence deal should equate overall to a years peak revenues in milestones/ royalties. I think the market will notice once we sign as ever.

[madmonkflin] 17/1/2012 13:44

someones nabbed 250k at 9.46, I'm surprised the MMs let that go so cheap.

[mrsapeslaptop] 17/1/2012 11:06

we got a mention in the sun & the FT. No one who reads those papers has any money to invest :).

This will be licenced very quickly IMHO, and we are due a research update on AMD this quarter. I think we will be at 25p fairly quickly. Ive waited 2 years, I can wait a little longer. GLA

[madmonkflin] 16/1/2012 20:48

nice buy recorded at 16:35, will it open up tomorrow?

[baldeagle5] 16/1/2012 16:17

Morning Notes Note Phytopharm Buy
16 January 2012 (PYM)
 Genetic model of ALS: Phytopharm used a pre-clinical model of ALS that
contains a mutation in the SOD1 gene, which can be a cause of ALS in humans.
Cogane was given orally for 50 days, starting after the ALS symptoms
appeared, which is equivalent to a late stage model of ALS. The study was
performed by UCL with support from the Motor Neuron Disease Foundation, a
UK-based charitable organisation.
 Strong results in a late-stage model: Cogane caused a 30-50% improvement
in muscle strength compared to placebo and a group treated with Riluzole (the
only marketed drug for ALS). Treatment with Cogane also led to an increase in
the number of motor neurons which points to neuronal protection/regeneration.
Treatment effects were less clear in a second muscle-type. Full results are to be
published in due course.
 Supports previous success: These results support those reported previously,
where Cogane showed benefit in a toxin-induced model of ALS, in a progressive
motor neuropathy model and in a nerve crush model. Collectively the results
from these four different models of ALS provide strong support for the utility of
Cogane in the treatment of this orphan condition. Financing additional studies
 Valuation: Cogane has now demonstrated encouraging results across a wide
range of neurodegenerative diseases although Phytopharm's investment case
continues to centre on the ongoing Phase 2 Parkinson's disease trial that is due
to report results from late 2012. While the upside upon positive results is
substantial, it is not without significant binary risk.
Data
Price 8p
Target price 20p
Market cap £27.5m
EV £16.8m
Net cash £10.7m
Index FTSE Fledgling
Sector Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
Stats (prior to changes)
Source: Company accounts, Peel Hunt estimates
Y/E Sep 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
Sales (£m) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
R&D (£m) (7.5) (7.5) (6.0) (6.0)
Adj PBT (£m) (8.2) (8.9) (7.8) (8.2)
Adj EPS (p) (2.2) (2.4) (2.1) (2.2)
EPS growth (%) n/a n/a n/a n/a
PER (x) n/a n/a n/a n/a
EV/EBITDA (x) n/a n/a n/a n/a
Changes to forecasts
Source: Company accounts, Peel Hunt estimates
Y/E Sep 2012E
Old
2012E
New
Adj PBT (£m) (8.9) nc
Adj EPS (p) (2.4) nc
DPS (p) 0.0 nc
Performance
Source: Bloomberg
Analyst
Dr Paul Cuddon [phone]

[mrsapeslaptop] 16/1/2012 15:09

UCB & Biogen also active in ALS research.

[enigma2002] 16/1/2012 14:47

not much us volume today - us markets are closed for martin luther king day.... it may be a half day come to think of it but im reasonable sure they are closed all day.

[mrsapeslaptop] 16/1/2012 14:42

and unlike the other stocks I hold. These ones are actually traded in the US. Mind you we never usually have any volume here. be interesting to see if we do get any US interest today

[mrsapeslaptop] 16/1/2012 14:21

and these guys fund trials

[mrsapeslaptop] 16/1/2012 14:07

of interest for ALS trials. would probably involve this organisation(s)

[madmonkflin] 16/1/2012 13:26

hopefully some of the tabloids will pick up on the good news.

[mrsapeslaptop] 16/1/2012 13:20

The market for Rilutek is $250m p.a. and it extends life by a few months. So this has the potential to dramatically increase the market size as it seems to restore function.

Rilutek also comes off patent this year



lets see what news reports we get over the coming week.

[madmonkflin] 16/1/2012 12:56

20-25p is big market value. I think this will only shift on sign-up of major player for phase iii trials.

[baldeagle5] 16/1/2012 12:53

Mrs - I'm with you - cannot understand why they are not 20-25p. This is actually material news - has anybody spoken with Tim Sharpington to confirm our interpretation?
Looks like a lack of analyst coverage is an opportunity to top up - I certainly have this morning.

[mrsapeslaptop] 16/1/2012 10:55

Sanofi- Aventis market the only drug approved for ALS currently.

Its not rocket science. I expect an announcement that they are taking an option on Phase II imminently

[enigma2002] 16/1/2012 10:21

madmonk - id rather have both - if hoodia can get back on its feet in addition to cogane success (especially with parkinsons since thats a way larger market than als) then so much the better :D

i love pym, been in since late 08 and with the exception of taking some profits on the 30p spike (who wouldnt) havnt sold a single share..... they take their time... but they nearly always deliver.. which is a rare gift on the AIM.

[mrsapeslaptop] 16/1/2012 10:17

for newbies. This drug has already passed Phase 1 and is safe and well toloerated.

As an orphan drug designation, the prospect looms that we can start selling it after |Phase II completes, There is no other treatment for ALS (the existing treatment only extends life by a couple of months). Id have thought we would be at 25p.

[mrsapeslaptop] 16/1/2012 10:00

oh yes.

I suspect the Phase II licencee is already lined up.

let the good times roll.

[madmonkflin] 16/1/2012 09:54

forget about hoodia, we gave that back for a piddling future %. it's cogane thats going to be the big money if it works.