Phoenix Global Mining Share Discussion Threads

[ducktack] 27/3/2006 14:32

Thanks Ash for such a time consuming reply, very interesting and much appreciated.
Reg's DT

[gsands] 27/3/2006 14:18

Ash, I left a little question for you on Fridays DAY thread... :-)

[gsands] 27/3/2006 14:17

The above is a good read for anyone considering the value of commodities as a long term theme.

[gsands] 27/3/2006 14:16

Just caught up on some earlier posts of yours Ash. Very good points on the theory of buying the equity vs buying the commodity futures - and I fully concur with your reasoning.

[mr ashley james] 27/3/2006 12:20

GS Sands,

Palladium trading near my first target US$339.50 at US$338.95 per toz on June 2006 Futures.



June Palladium is PA06M

[mr ashley james] 27/3/2006 12:18

I have never set a BB up in my life, never invested in a BB, nor even considered so doing, right that's it fed up with you trying to cause trouble, posting untruths, getting personal with me or other posters, swearing, behaving like a two year old, zap I can not read what you are posting, go ahead trash the thread!

This thread is to discuss PGMs not other BB Posters.

Holdontightuk - 27 Mar'06 - 11:42 - 86 of 87 (premium) (Filtered)


Holdontightuk - 27 Mar'06 - 11:51 - 87 of 87 (premium) (Filtered)

[holdontightuk] 27/3/2006 11:51

Gold's rise is all about the financial system per se. The fact that there is and has been effectively a $ standard and the $ is worthless. The ultimate impact is decimation of most if not all currencies.


Commods prices have been rising due to Eastern growth, which has in some ways acted as an equilibrium to the declining US$.

What happens to commods when Eastern economic growth slows?.....They will decline!

What will happen to gold, in same context? It will rise even faster.

[holdontightuk] 27/3/2006 11:42

So long as I am invested in PGM's I will post on related threads.
Most of what you say in your post above is correct. However, gold, pgm's and commods have risen against all currencies these past 18 months, not just the $. It is therefore not just about the $, M3 supply etc etc.

Bleeding obvious!

I would appreciate it if you would refrain from your idiotic, obnoxious snipes at me as well. If you are unable to accept other's views, I suggest you set up another destined-to-fail BB of your own again!

[mr ashley james] 27/3/2006 00:30

"both are a safe haven in times of uncertainty"!

What a load of tosh, they may be perceived to be but how can you walk around with hundreds of thousands or millions of pounds worth of Gold Bars?

The current Commodity Boom has two triggers:-

(1)A lack of faith in FIAT Currency especially the US Dollar, ie devaluation of it, ie increased number of greenbacks required to purchase a troy oz or Lb of a Commodity after a 30 times increase in M3 US$ Money Supply in 46 Years or 10 times increase in 30 years.

(2)Excess Demand for commodities from Asia as Asian Economies grow and development infrastructure is built.

You read the Propaganda too literally and never actually think of the rammifications of "Money" what it means, what it is and how the concept of "Value" has changed, could change again, who benefits, or why prices alter.

Next you will be quoting some mindless drivel like sell in May Go Away!

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[ducktack] 26/3/2006 23:17

Thanks for your swift reply Ash.
I wish to ask ANOTHER (yawn) question.
I did some overlays of commodity versus producer charts and, as an example, AQP over Pl, Pa etc and SLW over SIK6. The results were remarkable in that the equities far outweighed the commodity gains ie SLW up from C.$2 to $11 Friday and similar with AQP C.£4 to £7 in the last 6 months.
Would the only concern therefore be that by investing in the equities/producers they would be more prone to a sell off if a general stockmarket decline were to ensue? Or by history would mining be seen as a "safer" sector. I rather believe that the commodity would be a safer bet in a general market decline as equities are obviously interwined with the general market.
Am I making sense or babbling inanely and what would your preffered LSE play be.......AQP? Reason I ask is that I have limited funds and obviously wish to go with the best risk/reward scenario. Am about to have a look around at some PGM miners (if I can find any) that date back 10 yrs or more, but thought you may already know the answer.
Thanks and reg's DT

[Abuse team] 26/3/2006 20:08

Post removed by ADVFN

[mr ashley james] 26/3/2006 20:07

GS Sands,

Looking at chart looks like next week Pd should move to US$339.75, consolidation, probably backtest of US$330.50 area then next move to US$354.50 to US$354.75, consolidation around US$339.50 to US$339.75 area then move to US$378.75 to US$379.00 area at a guess.



It will obviously depend on to what extent the City catch on to the Bull potential of Palladium, and to what extent the strength of these metals leads Commodity Traders Bull Sentiment into the next Second Quarter.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 25/3/2006 01:57

DT,

Very tough to call all I will point out is Palladium is far rarer and therefore theoretically far more valuable than Silver.

It depends on whether you are looking to invest in the Equity or the Commodity.

My gut feeling is both will do well.

Long via equities both, in truth I prefer Palladium, due scarcity and upside to bridge Platinum Valuation differential.

Both should win if the grades and management are good from an Equities view.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Enjoy your weekend

Cheers

Ash:)

[ducktack] 25/3/2006 01:48

Hi Ash.
Firstly thanks for all your info.ACU looking like a "belter" now!
Where do you see Silver going? All the ETF hype makes me want to add to my meagre position but do you see Pa as a better ie risk /reward scenario?
I await your opinion with interest.
Thanks again and reg's DT

[gsands] 24/3/2006 17:49

Ash,

Yes - looking VERY sweet!!! Nicely called by you. Thanks and congratulations!

A nice weekend to you too!

:-)

[mr ashley james] 24/3/2006 17:20

GS Sands,

Looks like we might well see US$350 per toz Palladium next week.



I reckon US$349.00 per toz should be hit by Tuesday close personally.

If we break that level US$391 per toz should be on the cards by end of second Quarter 2006 IMHO.

My second half 2006 target would then lift to US$459 per toz and end 1st Quarter 2007 target might be as high as US$569 per toz.

I have very few concerns about these numbers or that 2006 will now pretty definitely see a US$422 per toz Pd price target increased from US$388 per toz by 31/12/2006.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Have a nice weekend.

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 23/3/2006 03:57

DON'T BUY THE HYPE AND PALLADIUM UPDATE

Wednesday, March 22, 2006


The stock market hit a 5 year high yesterday. Across the street from where I work, a Ferrari dealership recently opened up. Throughout America, families are eating out more often, digital cable has become a basic household necessity, and flat screen televisions are flying off the shelves. At first glance, all of these signs point to a robust economy. Consumers are spending money, corporations have record profits, and relative to the other citizens of this world, Americans are living lifestyles of the rich and famous.

As picturesque as the above scenario seems, it is no wonder why your average investor is not buying into the recessionary scenario. The stock market is heading higher, their home prices have appreciated, and the Fed is continually asserting that we have minimal inflation. As a result, investors are content on focusing their current lifestyles while ignoring the much larger global economic picture that is unfolding before their eyes.

In truth, the larger global economic picture does not look good for the overall US economy. Whereas the United States was once a great manufacturing economy, we have now become the greatest debtor nation in the world. Whereas the US dollar was once the safe haven of wealth, it is now be divested from Central Banks around the globe. Whereas the average US consumer had income and savings to continually purchase goods, they are now in debt. There is no question that these major fundamental factors have to be acknowledged. Focusing solely on your immediate lifestyle is hopelessly optimistic and shortsighted.

In his testimony before Congress, Ben Bernanke stated that he will rely heavily on data to determine how the economy is fairing. It is no wonder why your average investor is complacent about the long term outlook for our economy. Bernanke's comment in itself, reaffirmed that he will likely follow in the footsteps of Alan Greenspan. Relying mostly on data is like waiting for your kid's report card to determine if he needs help on his studies. Instead of noticing that he is not doing his homework and often misses class, you decide to take a "wait and see" outlook on the economy. This "wait and see" outlook will seem blissful in the short term, but will add greater damage to the US economy in the long-term. For example, instead of working on ways to combat inflation, Bernanke will spend time touting the overall strength of the US economy and the minimal Core CPI numbers. Until inflation is blatantly obvious and we are in the midst of a recession, he will likely be in denial of the true economic state of affairs.

In the last several months, we have seen a pullback in the commodity markets. As a result, the question of whether we are in a commodity bubble has risen more often. Investors that ask this question do not really understand the reason why we have had a multi year run in the commodity markets. First and foremost, there has never been a time in history where commodity bull markets have lasted less than 15 years. At this rate, we have at least another 10 years to go. Secondly, we are living in unprecedented times. If the average investor would stop and think about what is going on around them, they would likely come to the same conclusion.

Although the US consumer is living beyond their means, one third of the world's population is industrializing. And not only are they industrializing, but they are industrializing at a record pace. With industrialization, comes the need for raw materials and commodities. With industrialization comes the creation of an educated and wealthier working class. With the creation of a wealthier class, comes more discretionary income that will be spent on consumer products and food. This, however, will not happen overnight. But it will happen. You can either jump on the commodity bull market now, or regret that you did not participate in potentially the greatest bull market in history. I am offering a free brochure titled "The Case for Commodities" to anyone who asks. You can request one here.

Palladium Update

As many of my clients and newsletter readers know, I have been extremely bullish on Palladium. My bullishness can be summed up by the opening paragraph of a commentary that I wrote seven months ago:

Whenever an asset falls in value by 80%, it has to be examined for its potential as a contrarian, value-oriented investment. Such is the case with Palladium. In
a commodity bull market, where substantial run- ups have occurred in oil, copper, precious metals, and other raw materials, palladium has escaped the notice of most investors. Even more interesting, is that the price of palladium has declined in the midst of rising demand. I believe that this trend is about to reverse, as the manufacturing community is taking notice of the substantial spread between the two metals that are similar in their industrial use. (Full Article)

Since I wrote my initial commentary, Palladium has definitely reversed its downward trend. In fact, Palladium has risen 37% in value. Although this move up might not be surprising to some, since precious metals in general have hit multiyear highs, it does represent a reversal in a metal that has lagged behind its precious metals counterparts.



Furthermore, the spread between platinum and palladium has narrowed over the last several months. When I first talked about the spread, Platinum was 4.66 times more expensive than Palladium. Today, Platinum is only 3.28 times more expensive than Palladium. Another way of looking at this is that since my initial recommendation, Palladium has moved up 37% in value, while Platinum has only moved up 10 % in value.

In either case, price differentials between these industrially similar metals are still enormous. Take a look at the updated Platinum versus Palladium chart below:



In the intermediate term, I expect Palladium prices to make a quick run towards the 340 level where it will likely encounter strong resistance. In the long term, I expect the demand for Palladium to increase exponentially. It is interesting to note, that from 1996 to 2000, Palladium was the primary metal of choice for autocatalytic convertors. After Palladium prices hit a record high in 2001, the demand for platinum increased. I see this trend reversing in the next several years.

If you are interested in participating in the Palladium Bull Market please contact me here

If you are interested in receiving my weekly commodity newsletter please sign up here.

Emanuel Balarie
Senior Market Strategist
[e-mail]

[holdontightuk] 23/3/2006 00:17

Posted to the web on: 22 March 2006
PGMs at or near long-term highs
I-Net Bridge

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THE spot prices of platinum group metals (PGMs) today were at - or close to - long-term highs on fund buying of the metals, as well as tight fundamentals for platinum and rhodium in particular, analysts said.

Rhodium was last trading close to its highest level since July 1991, while palladium climbed to its best level since April 2004 and platinum was last quoted at a two-week high, just over $40/oz from its all-time peak achieved in February.

In late afternoon trade, platinum was quoted at $1,041/oz, up $4/oz, after climbing to $1,046.50/oz or the metal's highest level March 7.

Consumer buying had been evident in platinum, while ongoing concerns over the Zimbabwean government's plans to take a 51% stake in foreign-owned mines should continue to provide additional support to markets, London-based Barclays Capital analysts wrote.

Platinum looked set to test resistance at $1,040/oz and $1,055/oz, UK- based TheBullionDesk.com analyst James Moore wrote.

Platinum was likely to go higher as the market for the metal was in deficit, London-based UBS analyst John Reade said.

On a one-month view, platinum could climb to a record high of $1,100/oz, he added.

At the lows, Chinese demand for platinum provided support for the metal above $1,000/oz, Reade added.

Palladium was last quoted at $318/oz, up $2/oz from the metal's yesterday close. Earlier today, palladium climbed to $323/oz, the metal's highest level since mid-April 2004.

Palladium is struggling to clear resistance between $315/oz and $320/oz, Moore wrote.

Rhodium last traded at $3,940/oz, just off its long-term high of $3,975/oz established earlier this week, which was the metal's highest level since July 1991.

"Rhodium is moving higher as the metal is in deficit and there are no stocks around. Rhodium could go to $7,000/oz as there is substantial upside for the metal," said Reade.

In July 1990, rhodium climbed to an all-time high of $7,000/oz.

The spot price of gold was last quoted at $548,17/oz, down $3,98/oz from the metal's previous close.

"The market continues to appear heavy, possibly reflecting the influence of the stronger dollar and lack of fund enthusiasm to push prices much higher at present, through we favour a break on the upside after this consolidation phase," Barclays Capital wrote.

The euro was last quoted at $1,2083, down $0,0026 from the unit's late trade yesterday.

Iran's decision to enter into talks with the US was likely to weigh on sentiment, but physical support for gold was likely to remain strong between $548/oz and $550/oz, with support at $535/oz, Moore wrote.