Phoenix Global Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mr ashley james] 22/3/2006 23:39

HOT,

I was wandering when you would blow your cover, I worked out who you were three months ago

The BMO Nesbitt Trades on every share were a dead give a way.

Bye, and back to talking about Platinum Group Metal Assets not Promotions.

Please do not get too upset if I ignore your posts even if you have coughed up a fiver to join the PBB and are trying hard to make friends and influence people.

I am not buying it, and apart from the multiple log on brigade I doubt many others will either.

See ya, I leave you in your self deserved desperation to find mug punters, asking why you are not concentrating on running an Exploration Company and posting on BBs at all?

Back to assets and discussing them as opposed to selling dreams to fools.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[c1ty whispers] 22/3/2006 20:33

Well i,m glad i stumbled on this thread.......very informative Mr Ashley James
and Gsands.

I,m all ears....

[holdontightuk] 22/3/2006 19:46

Ashley, bought some JLP.L yesterday. I know you dont like the LSE but so what frankly.....they look to me like they are on to something.....big!

Also, Anooraq look interesting.....might buy some in my trainspotter brother-in-law's name!

[mr ashley james] 22/3/2006 19:35

GS Sands,

What about Fuel Cell Technology?

Threat to Oil/Gas/Hydrocarbon Usage?

Cheers

Ash:)

[gsands] 22/3/2006 19:32

PS - I forgot to comment on the article about gold - which I found highly interesting. The author makes an extremely valid point when he talks about the importance of inflation when comparing historic prices. This should (as he points out) be considered when valuing all commodities inc. oil.

I have always been a bit wary about the gold as an asset as I always considered the main use to be decorative/jewelery etc and therefore a commodity that whilst rare, could have fickle levels of demand. IE when people decide gold is too expensive they will switch to another pretty metal.

However - this view could be entirely wrong.

Also - gold is no longer used to back the currencies of the world therefore no demand there either.

The PGM group of metals conversely, is more interesting. Rarer - as you point out - as to a certain extent it is 'consumed' by industry for automotive applications etc (although can be reclaimed/recycled from old cats I believe).

But if you extend this line of logic then surely oil is the most interesting of all as it is literally consumed - burned and gone. Not as rare, granted, but global reserves are being depleted and there is no end to this unless by some miracle we humans decide to think ahead of the current generation and start using renewal sources before the oil is all gone - or worth $500 a barrel.

But knowing human nature as I do - it will certainly be the latter. Nothing will be done about oil consumption until it is so damned expensive that we have to.

[mr ashley james] 22/3/2006 19:20

GS Sands,

I also believe that 100% of Western World Motor Cars and other Automotives will be produced in Asia by 2013, so either way I see a huge domestic Chinese, Indian Motor Industry developing needing PGM Autocatalysts.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[gsands] 22/3/2006 19:13

Very interesting observations Ash. Hadn't thought of the density therefore volume differences which make Pd look even cheaper than Pt - certainly for jewelery anyway - not sure about cats as the density may be important - I really don't know.

So basically you are a raging commodities bull as your logic (which I agree with BTW) about developing countries will create increased demand for ALL commodities metals, oil etc.

Over the long term ie the next 5- 7 years I suspect you are right. But this has to be balanced against how much of that expected demand is priced in now and how much more supply will be created as the miners of all commodities beaver away frantically in search of new sources.

I suppose to get a handle on that situation one must look at the wider picture in terms of global economic growth and must correctly predict when the current cycle will peak.

Sooner or later all the bicycle riding Indians and Chinese will want cars and cheap flights to far-away places. But what % of them will be rewarded with such a lifestyle in this current economic phase is difficult to predict. With such simple logic there is a tendency to get carried away - the reality is very different and I suspect very many Indians will still be riding bicycles in 2012.

PS Did you here the news last year about a car manufacturer (I think Tatu - from Turkey???) attempting to build a £2500 car for the Indian market? This is precisely the evolution you are predicting!

[mr ashley james] 22/3/2006 19:12

GSands,

These are the Goldstream Mining NL ASX:GDM Grades I was impressed with, remember a few holes do not make a viable deposit, but Lonmin Plc know their stuff.



These are the Beartooth Platinum Corp. Ltd TSX:BTP Grades I spoke about please note these are mainly soil samples and Rock outcrop chips from the B Chromite Reef in the Stillwater Complex, ie NOT Drilling Results (bar Anaconda previous one 17 g/t) but they look extremely promising to me (as long as not surface enriched).



This is high risk end of the business in the Junior Exploration Sector, but with so few Palladium Plays out there, least of all with grade where else can a Palladium Bull play?

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[gsands] 22/3/2006 18:30

Ash >>> just got the article thanks again. Will read with interest.

[gsands] 22/3/2006 18:28

Thanks Ash - so basically you are bullish on all the PGM's not just Pd? I got the impression from your 'original' post (the one which got me curious) that you were bullish on specifically Pd - possibly at the expense of Pt - which could fall if it follows the recent historic inverse relationship - as the major users of Pt (the automotive sector for cats) switch to the cheaper Pd over Pt.

[mr ashley james] 22/3/2006 18:22

GS Sands,

Well if you buy the line that Gold will hit US$628 then US$1,008 and can go to equal January 1980 peak of US$850 per toz Indexed Against US CPI 1980 to Present hit in excess of US$2,176 per toz by 2013 (refer Adam Hamilton's Calculation at ZealC.com I have cross checked and agree with his figures)the Platinum and Palladium at between 15 and 35 times as rare as Gold, and Rhodium far rarer ie roughly 10 times as rare, Iridium even rarer still I do not know ratio exactly, your Platinum Price if Gold were to hit US$2,176 ie likely IMHO to hit US$4,099 per toz so who cares?

Far safer to invest in a "Seven Metal Basket" ie Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium, Iridium, Osmium, Ruthenium and Gold than just a politically exposed bet on Gold, the Bankers Metal the Counterparty to FIAT Money along with Silver.

I will try to dig up Adam Hamilton's article for you to read.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[biswell] 22/3/2006 18:18

Ashes

Also look at last 3 years turnover, and recent announcements

There is also a Japanese deal announcement expected any time now

B

[mr ashley james] 22/3/2006 18:14

Thanks Mike will look at chart

Cheers

Ash:)

[gsands] 22/3/2006 18:13

Ash,

Thank you very much for the very comprehensive reply.

I have been giving some thought to how best catch the uplift in Pd.

Most of the mining companies I assume also mine Pt. (in addition to the other PGM metals)

Therefore, if one believes that Pd will rise at the expense of Pt (the arguement being that the two metals have historically shown an inverse relationship with Pt - in the recent cycle- rising as Pd fell) then surely these mining companies will be losing money with one hand and receiving it with the other - to coin an expression - a zero sums equation?

So how can one expose themselves to Pd and not the falling priceof Pt without just taking out a s/bet on Pd itself?

[kit kah siah high du] 22/3/2006 18:00

Gsands

Try spread betting Pd futures on a platform like IG Index
Its doing OK for me so far (touch wood)

Thanks for all the info AJ

[biswell] 22/3/2006 17:49

Ashes

CRX may well be worth a punt

UK AIM Pharma

B

[Abuse team] 22/3/2006 17:49

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[mr ashley james] 22/3/2006 17:47

GSands,

The List is here, as you know I am obsessed by Grade, Grade and Grade plus Management Experience, Knowledge, and value in the ground criteria.

If you want trades liquidity the key Palladium Producers are Norilsk Nickel, Stillwater Mining Inc, North American Palladium Limited, Anglo Platinum Corporation Limited, Impala Platinum Limited, Lonmin Plc, Northam Platinum Limited, Aquarius Platinum Limited, Zimplats.

If you want explorer into developer heavy Palladium Exposure with grades to match I reckon the best grade plays are Beartooth Platinum Corp. Limited and Goldstream Mining NL other high risk exploration, but both in the right places with Palladium Grades that make sense logically in any market likely, ie shows above 12 grammes per tonne Palladium.

If you are a mega Palladium Bull ie agree that the price will hit US$388 toz 2006 then US$522 2007 then US$739 2008 from 2007 onwards the Canadian PGM plays start to make sense, even open pit at 1.38 g/t ie Pd at US$522=US$16.78 per gramme, 1.38g/t=US$23.16 per Mt, my Open Pit cut off US$30 per Mt minimum (really want US$50 per Mt plus Open Pit and US$125 per Mt plus Underground Mining below say 250 metres).

Anglo-American Platinum Corporation (AMPLATS)Ticker Code ANANP JSE
Norilsk Nickel (NORNIK)Ticker codes NKEL and GMKN MSE RTS
Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPLATS) Ticker Code IMPO JSE
Lonmin Plc (LONMIN) Ticker Code LMI LSE
Northam Platinum Limited (NORTHAM)Ticker code NHM JSE
Aquarius Platinum (SA) Limited/Aquarius Platinum Plc Ticker codes AQP JSE ASX and LSE
Zimbabwe Platinum Corporation (ZIMPLATS) Ticker Code ZIM:ASX
North American Palladium Limited Ticker codes PDL on TSE and PAL on AMEX NYSE
StillWater Mining Company Ticker Code SWC on AMEX NYSE

Global Palladium/Platinum Producers:-

Norilsk Nickel MSE:GMKN
Stillwater Mining Company Inc NYSE:SWC
North American Palladium Limited TSE:PDL AMEX:PAL

Global Platinum/Palladium Producers:-

Anglo American Platinum Corporation JSE:ANANP
Impala Platinum Holdings Limited JSE:IMPO
Lonmin Plc LSE:LMI
Aquarius Platinum Plc LSE:AQP ASX:AQP JSE:AQP
African Rainbow Minerals Limited JSE:ARIM
Northam Platinum Limited JSE:NHM
Zimbabwe Platinum Limited ASX:ZIM

Global PGM Development Assets:-

Anooraq Resources Corporation Limited TSX:ARQ AMEX:ANO
Platinum Australia Limited ASX:PLA AIM:PLAA
Platinum Group Metals Limited TSE:PTM
Eastern Platinum Limited TSE:ELR AIM:ELR
Ridge Mining Plc AIM:RDG
Arctic Platinum -Gold Fields of South Africa Limited JSE:GOGOF JV with North American Palladium Limited TSE:PDL AMEX:PAL
Barplats Investments Limited JSE:BPL
Marathon PGM Corporation Limited TSX:MAR
Mustang Minerals Corp. Limited TSX:MUM


Exploration Stocks:-

Beartooth Platinum Limited TSX:BTP
Pacific North West Capital Corp. Limited TSE:PFN
International Freegold Limited TSX:ITF
East West Resources Limited TSX:EWR
Goldstream Mining NL ASX:GDM
Nkwe Platinum Limited ASX:NKP
Eurasia Mining Plc AIM:EUA
Houston Lake Mining Inc TSX:HLM
Jubilee Platinum Plc AIM:JPL

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[gsands] 22/3/2006 17:33

UPDATE:

According to IG INDEX price PD has broken out today - currently trading at 324/328 - obviously price needs to hold.

[gsands] 22/3/2006 17:28

Ashley,

I really think your up to something here with Pd. I have increased my stake in PLAA recently but would like to increase my exposure to the metal via other companies - especially if Pd breaks out which it looks highly likely to do right now.

Can I have some more suggestions of other good Pd plays please. Many thanks.





PS thanks for alerting me to the Pd opportunity via the DAY thread :-)

[mr ashley james] 22/3/2006 17:23

Apprent1ce,

It looks like Palladium is on the verge of a chart break out currently.

Here's to hoping.



Pd has hit US$324.50 per toz twice in June 2006 Futures.



All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[Abuse team] 20/3/2006 17:53

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