Phoenix Global Mining Share Discussion Threads

[le couteau tombant] 21/6/2008 01:27

Tim,

Ahh, this is why they were shorting AMEX:PAL and NYSE:SWC, not thinking outside The Big Apple! (Reactive and not Proactive, acting not thinking per normal on Wall and Bay Streets!)

So much for a Heliocentric Universe!

It is going to make a difference to USA/Canadian Palladium Demand, but it is not immediately going to make a Difference to Asian Palladium Demand.

But is that USA/Canadian Difference Negative in Palladium Demand Terms?

There is no doubt that a 25% reduction in Larger Motors sold in USA will change the game, but a more fuel and Greener Alternative, Smaller, Cheaper Car does not necessarily mean less Palladium, it is bound to mean less Rhodium and Platinum, but it does not logically mean less Palladium if Cost, Size and Efficiency are key!

Remember USA especially very stringent California, Vermont, Massachussetts 2010 ZEV (Zero Emission Vehicles) and LEV (Low Emission Vehicles) Legislation coming in by 2010!

It could indeed mean more Palladium Consumed in North America even from Domestic Markets Stand Alone! (Never mind ex USA/Canada which appears destined to expand radically and fast from Asian Demand!)



Page last updated at 23:11 GMT, Friday, 20 June 2008 00:11 UK
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Ford 'to make fewer big vehicles'



Ford will make 90,000 fewer vehicles this year
Car giant Ford has said it will cut its production of large trucks and large sports utility vehicles (SUVs) in favour of more fuel efficient models.

It will also delay the introduction of its new pick-up truck by two months.

The US economic slowdown has reduced sales and soaring fuel prices have put consumers off buying bigger vehicles.

Ford said it will make a loss this year and predicted that the worsening US economic situation would make it difficult for it to break even in 2009.

We view the move to smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles as permanent

Ford president and chief executive Alan Mulally

"Demand for large trucks and SUVs [is] at one of the lowest levels in decades," said Ford president and chief executive Alan Mulally.

Ford's sales were down 16.8% last month compared to May 2007, according to industry analysts Autodata.

The company's new F-150 pick-up truck will now go on sale two months later than anticipated in the autumn of next year.

Ford said it expected to produce 90,000 fewer vehicles in the second half of 2008.

Production in the third quarter will now be 475,000 vehicles, 25% fewer than during the same period in 2007, Ford said.

'Responding to demand'

The company will increase the production of smaller vehicles including the Ford Focus sedan, the Ford Escape and the Mercury Mariner.

"We view the move to smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles as permanent, and we are responding to customer demand," Mr Mulally said in a statement.

US VEHICLE SALES MAY 2008
Ford: down 15.8%
General Motors: down 27.5%
Chrysler: down 25.4%
Honda: up 15.6%
Nissan: up 8.4%
Source: Autodata

Most of the production cuts will be achieved by extending the summer shut-downs, reducing production line speeds and cutting the number of shifts at some plants. Shifts will be added at factories making the smaller vehicles.

Ford has said it wants to reduce its workforce by 12% and further cuts cannot be ruled out. The company will announce further details of its restructuring plan when it announces its next set of financial results in July.

As a result of Ford's announcement, Standard and Poor's said it was reviewing its ratings for major car producers including Ford, Chrysler and General Motors.

If it downgrades their investment ratings, their borrowing costs could increase.

Ford shares closed down 8.1% and General Motors fell 6.8%.

Earlier this month, General Motors said it was closing four SUV and truck factories in the US, Canada and Mexico in response to falling demand.

[le couteau tombant] 20/6/2008 18:48

Still no reported trades to US$495 approx as shown in yesterday's chart in header September Future?

Trades held back deliberately or misskeyed in effecting chart yesterday but not chart today?

Data (including yesterday) showed September 2008 High US$484.35 but chart didn't now does.

If these trades not reported yet who is accumulating and why?

Presumably the obvious vested interest!

[le couteau tombant] 20/6/2008 18:44

India is on the road to a transport revolution

Huge efforts are being made to improve the country's infrastructure
Randeep Ramesh in Pune The Guardian, Tuesday May 2, 2006 Article historyWhen Yohan Poonawalla took delivery of the first Rolls-Royce Phantom sold in India last year, the car was everything that he was promised. Inside the 2.5-tonne, 20ft vehicle was a hand-crafted walnut dashboard featuring a humidor. The tinted windows had electronically controlled curtains. Open the doors and out popped a silver-handled umbrella.

But the £500,000 vehicle's first miles in the country were traumatic for Mr Poonawalla. Picking it up from Mumbai, the 34-year-old scion of a wealthy industrial family had to drive the car to his home in Pune, 180km away. Despite its immense power - the Phantom zooms from 0 to 62mph in under six seconds - the car slowly picked its way through the maze of Mumbai's decrepit backstreets and gridlocked intersections.

"Taking it out [of Mumbai] was not easy. You had cows; people on the streets. There was no other way to get the car home. All I could think about was just watch out for the car," Mr Poonawalla recalls. "It was the longest hour I have ever spent behind the wheel."

It was not until he made it out of the city that Mr Poonawalla finally found a road decent enough to drive his Rolls on. "The expressway is as good as any road in Europe. It was my first chance to really see how the car handles and travels."

What Mr Poonawalla experienced are the first fruits of India's roads revolution, which has helped propel the country's economic annual growth past 8%. The six lanes running from Mumbai to Pune are part of the 3,650-mile Golden Quadrilateral highway, which is the largest infrastructure project undertaken since the country became independent in 1947.

The expressways form a diamond linking Delhi with the country's three other largest cities: Mumbai, Chennai and Calcutta. On schedule to be completed this year and within its £4bn budget, the Golden Quadrilateral marks the beginning of more than £35bn of road projects.

For anyone accustomed to India and the haphazard way things happen, the country's new motorways are nothing short of a miracle.

Dramatic shift

"We had to link the country up. This was a mission of the greatest importance for the economy," said BC Khanduri, who was minister of roads from 2000 to 2004. A retired major general in the Indian army engineering corps, he cracked down on corruption and delay.

"Look we gave deadlines and made sure people met them. There were penalties for poor performance and bonuses for those who delivered on time," said Mr Khanduri. "My idea was to say good infrastructure could be built in India too."

Many point out that the initiative to create a high-speed road network was sorely needed as the nation's antiquated transport links were cutting deep into profits and slowing economic growth.

The comparison with China is a poor one. India's northern neighbour focused early on building up its infrastructure, especially its network of arterial routes. During the 1990s Beijing spent £18bn a year on expanding its expressways - 10 times the amount Delhi managed. The result is that highways, which move four-fifths of all goods transported in India, account for only about 2% of the country's roads.

Ports, too, are a problem. On average it takes 85 hours to unload and reload a ship at India's major ports, 10 times longer than in east Asia.

"Historically speaking, roads in India have been starved of funds and, even worse, their maintenance has been sorely neglected," says NK Singh, a former government adviser. But Mr Singh says there has been a dramatic shift in thinking since 2000, with spending on infrastructure this year rising by 24%.

The arrival of smoother, wider roads in India has had an immediate, visible effect: the start of the Indian public's love affair with the motor car. The potential has barely been tapped, say analysts, who point out that though 40 million Indians can afford a car there are only 7.5m cars on the country's roads.

Motor manufacturers have begun to take notice. Sales of Ford cars in the country are rising at more than 30% a year, leading the company's chief executive, William Clay Ford, to remark that India was now a "top priority".

Local carmakers have also moved to ramp up production. The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers recently released figures showing India's vehicle production jumped 13% last year. By 2009 the country will account for 8% of global motor industry growth.

While China's rise is scaring India into upgrading its roads network, it is Japan's companies that provide an inspiration for India's nascent car industry. Maruti began life as an Indian government firm, but is now majority owned by Japan's Suzuki. It is also India's biggest motor manufacturer. Every morning at just before 7am in the Maruti car plant in Gurgaon, an hour's drive out of Delhi, hundreds of workers wearing identical green shirts and trousers line up for exercises and sing the company song.

Maruti has adopted specific practices - individual production targets, company slogans and uniform - to emulate the Japanese commitment to quality. The Indian managers take trips to Suzuki's headquarters and pepper their conversation with Japanese management speak.

Natural advantage

The Gurgaon plant now produces more than 500,000 cars a year and another £750m factory is being built in nearby Manesar. Suzuki's Indian sales will soon exceed Japan's. The abundance of cheap labour in India means Gurgaon's assembly lines are not fully "robotised". "Whereas in Japan we would look at 95% robotisation, in India we manage with 70 to 75%. Our wage base is cheaper," said Shankar Sanyal, a Maruti manager.

However, this is changing. Rolling off Gurgaon's assembly line is a new car, a hatchback called the Swift, which is built in the same way as in Japan. In a marked shift, Indian engineers did much of the research and development.

The Swift highlights another trend: the emergence of India as a small car hub. With government handing out tax incentives, India is now the third largest maker of small cars in the world. Sales of hatchbacks in India topped 650,000 this year.

The increased activity has given rise to world-class auto-components firms, kickstarting a new wave of outsourcing that had Kamal Nath, India's trade minister, recently pointing out that while General Motors was losing workers in Detroit it was recruiting in India.

The auto-parts industry, too, has sought to emulate Japanese competitors. Rane Group, based in Chennai, has sales of £165m and is growing at more than 10% a year with exports rising at a faster pace. Yet only five years ago the company could not take on foreign competitors, scaring away customers with shoddy brakes and valves.

"Our natural advantage is in wage costs. In the past the gap was the quality of our products. So we hired Japanese consultants and got them to show us where we went wrong," says Babu Laxman, the company chairman.

These are the first signs that the country may be experiencing a boom in manufacturing to rival the Chinese. "We do not see Chinese competition as our rivals," says Mr Laxman. "It's the Japanese we want to match and beat."

[le couteau tombant] 20/6/2008 17:04

Tim, AMEX:PAL starting to recover, I must say utterly amazed two largest North American Palladium Producers Shareprices dropping in a Commodity that has increased in value by US$66.85 ie 16% this month alone (September US$417.50 to US$484.35)

[le couteau tombant] 20/6/2008 14:51

Rhodium still 21.21 times Palladium Price (US$10,010/US$472)

[mattybuoy] 20/6/2008 14:17

OK thanks.

I'm not trying to promote nickel particularly, just pointing out that cold fusion may not be relevant to palladium. We just don't know.

As you say many reasons to be bullish without all that anyway.

[le couteau tombant] 20/6/2008 14:15

India | products_services | 2008-01-13 | print |
Source: Newsweek

How Green is Tata's Nano?

Tata's Nano may put millions of new drivers on the roads. It also may herald a new source of pollution. The unveiling of Tata Motors' People's Car-perhaps the most anticipated vehicle in a decade-had the frenzied atmosphere of a blockbuster movie opening. For four years Tata kept every detail of the car's development top secret, and now a hundred or more photographers jostled to get the first shot. When chairman Ratan Tata, citing the first flight by the Wright brothers and the invention of the computer, pulled back the curtain on the newly named Nano, it turned out to be a four-seater, a bit more than three meters long, with a 642cc engine and made of plastic and glue instead of welded steel.

Despite speculation to the contrary, the car will retail for 100,000 rupees, or $2,500. ("A promise is a promise," Tata said.) At less than half what Maruti Suzuki, the current market leader in India, charges for its cheapest model, the Nano is priced to get urban Indians off their motor scooters and motorcycles and into a car. It is expected to inspire other manufacturers to develop cheap cars and force Maruti Suzuki and others to slash prices, bringing millions more new cars onto Indian roads over the next five years. But the prospect of a flood of new drivers in a nation of 1 billion people has inspired a backlash against the Nano from environmentalists, who fear it's a major new source of pollution.

The concern is that a supercheap auto will encourage development on the American model-relying on the car rather than mass transit. More drivers will add to air pollution, already a critical problem in more than half of India's cities, and to the carbon in the atmosphere that causes global warming. "This car promises to be an environmental disaster of substantial proportions," says Daniel Esty, an environmental expert at Yale.

Tata has worked hard to get out in front of its critics, at least on air pollution. The first models to roll off the company's assembly line in Singur, West Bengal, will get about 20 kilometers per liter of gasoline (50 miles per gallon) and meet stringent European emissions standards that have yet to be adopted in India. Tata insists that the Nano will pollute less than the two-wheelers it is intended to replace and get roughly the same gas mileage as the Maruti models. The Nano's catalytic converter appears to reduce most pollutants by about 80 percent-not as much as the 99 percent Western models do, but still a big reduction. Environmentalists, though, say that it will probably fail after a few years on the road. The reason: Indians typically don't keep their autos in tip-top shape. When the catalytic converter fails, emissions of pollutants could shoot up fivefold.

The story gets worse when you consider greenhouse gases like CO2, which escape catalytic converters. The more gas burned, the more CO2 released. The Nano is likely to replace motor scooters and motorbikes, which get about 54 kilometers to the liter, more than twice what the Nano gets, according to Daniel Sperling, director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis, who has studied the situation in Delhi. That means fuel consumption and carbon emissions will almost certainly rise. "Every new purchase of this vehicle is increasing fuel use [per passenger] by a factor of two to seven, depending on how many people are in the car," says Sperling. That doesn't even account for a decline in fuel efficiency if the cars are not maintained well.

Western environmentalists know they have little moral standing to criticize Indians for wanting cars, particularly one that meets the highest Western emissions standards. But they're rattled in part because they didn't see this coming, and will have to recalculate projections for the buildup of greenhouse gases based on a world of many more drivers. "In none of our reports did we assume there'd be a car like this," says Judy Greenwald, director of innovative solutions at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. "This is a new category. It will affect everybody's projections."



Source: Newsweek

[le couteau tombant] 20/6/2008 14:11

Yes refer Post 65



Mattybouy, if you want to promote Nickel why not point out that you can not make steel for Chasis etc without it ie stainless steel?

It is Disingenius and Silly to attempt to misslead other BB Posters, the truth will always out!

[mattybuoy] 20/6/2008 14:09

Are we sure the Nano has a cat?

BTW if you want to take a direct punt on this car you can do so via Tata Motors ADR on the NYSE (ticker TTM).

[le couteau tombant] 20/6/2008 14:06

Tata Nano: The World's Cheapest Car
Date posted: 01-10-2008

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NEW DELHI - With crowds jamming the Tata Motors exhibit at the New Delhi Auto Expo three hours before showtime, the Indian automaker's chief, Ratan Tata, drove the highly-anticipated 1-lakh ($2,500) car, named the Nano.

Promised by Ratan Tata as the world's cheapest car and the people's car, the Nano hatchback goes on sale in India later this year. Exports are planned within three years.

The Nano is rear-drive with a rear gas engine, a 34-horsepower 623cc aluminum twin-cylinder. Tata says the Nano, available in standard or "deluxe" trim, achieves fuel economy of about 50 mpg. However, it meets only Euro III emissions standards, which are up to four years behind current European regulations.

Tata says the Nano already has passed India's full-frontal crash tests and is designed to meet international offset and side-impact crash tests. It has no airbags, but Ratan Tata said they could be added for markets outside India.

A Cornell University-trained architect who personally helped design the Nano, Ratan Tata had long vowed he'd develop a car cheap enough so Indians could trade their motorbike in for one.

"A promise is a promise, and that's what we'd like to leave you with," Ratan Tata said at the conclusion of the press conference.

What this means to you: You won't be seeing a 1-lakh car in the U.S. for awhile - if ever. But if you live in India, you can trade up your motorbike for a Nano. - Nick Kurczewski, AutoObserver Correspondent

[le couteau tombant] 20/6/2008 13:25

Key Issues Here Automotive Catalysts, Fuel Cells, Jewellry and Bullion Demand, Hydrogen Storage including in portable power plant units, Weapons manufacture, to name a few.

Key drivers Asian Automotive Demand,Energy Demand.

Short to medium term kickers Tata Nano in India and marketted across Asia and Beijing/Shanghai Olympics and Alternative Energy Forums in China this Year leading into October 2008.

Arbitrage Against Rhodium Price of US$10,010

Store of Value Against Hyper Inflation.

Potential Massive Swift and Impulse Driven Move outperforming all other Commodity Sectors.

Takes heat out of Hyper Inflation Globally by taking Money in from other Commodity Bubbles elsewhere.

[le couteau tombant] 20/6/2008 13:17

Palladium starting next leg up, Gap to US$510 then Wave Move to US$535.45 imho

Possibly unreported trades from yesterday to approximately US$495 in PAU8 September 2008 Future(reported trades to US$484.35 per Barchart)

[mattybuoy] 20/6/2008 13:10

I have seen evidence that palladium may not be necessary for whatever cold fusion is. Some experiments have been successful using nickel, for example.

[pecker1] 20/6/2008 13:06

goatherd,

Lol! But it could take a decade or more to commercialise, so I expect it would not interfere with this generational commodity boom.

[pecker1] 20/6/2008 12:58

LCT,

Posted this news item on low energy fusion on a previous PGM thread but think it's worth flagging up on your new thread:



Despite the risk of ridicule after the earlier "cold fusion" fiasco, there are numerous scientists experimenting in this field. needless to say a breakthrough would have a dramatic effect on the palladium price.

[holism] 20/6/2008 07:50

What about ELR?

[83mike] 20/6/2008 00:40

Thanks for your work on this Le Couteau Tombant; thorough & extremely interesting.

May I ask what you think the possible effects of hybrid cars would be on palladium demand?

If a 'normal' car uses x ounces of pgm, do we have an indication of what a hybrid may use for example?

[mattybuoy] 19/6/2008 20:54

It all depends on your timeframe ... :) Plus there is still plenty of speculative money around in Canada if nowhere else. Witness coal/potash mania.

PAL is the obvious core stock though, I agree.

[le couteau tombant] 19/6/2008 20:49

AMEX:PAL looks like Nice Close over and Out.

Back to Hydrogen Storage tomorrow using Palladium Market could be Enormous.

[le couteau tombant] 19/6/2008 20:42

Mattybuoy, I personally think it is too risky at this stage of market to play Exploration Stocks, Most Institutional money won't touch them currently, so we have no aftermarket.

Producers are likely to be sole field of play until both Banks Rights issues done, and Investor Money ie Middle East, India, China, Russia etc start to play Juniors, unlikely short term I would think.

[mattybuoy] 19/6/2008 20:37

Non-producing primary PGM stocks outside known camps:

Northern Shield Resources (TSX:NRN) - Exploration, Canada
Platina Resources (ASX:PGM) - Exploration/Development, Australia/Greenland
Platinex (TSX:PTX) - Exploration, Canada

Non-producing secondary (i.e. primary nickel) PGM stocks outside known camps:

Rusina Mining (ASX:RML, LSE:RMLA) - Exploration, Philippines
Starfield Resources (TSE:SRU) - Exploration, Canada

All worth a look IMHO.