Phoenix Global Mining Share Discussion Threads

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 14:41

TATA Launch £1200 Motor Car
Posted by amandab6 on January 10, 2008



Today Tata Motors rolled out their new Nano motor car - the People's Car. The launch of the People's Car by Tata Motors is a defining moment in the history of India's automotive industry.

For the Tata Group, it is the realisation of a pioneering vision to create a breakthrough product globally that rewrites the rules of the small-car business.

The vehicle will sell for 100,000 rupees or $2,500 (£1,277) and enable those in developing countries to move to four wheels. The four-door five-seater car, which goes on sale later this year, has a 33bhp, 624cc, engine at the rear. It has no air conditioning, no electric windows and no power steering, but two deluxe models will be on offer.

Tata will initially make about 250,000 Nanos and expects eventual annual demand of one million cars. The price will be slightly more than the 100,000 once tax and other costs are taken into consideration.

Tata's small car will get cheap car insurance cover, but funding might turn out to be expensive. According to lenders, interest rates depend on the borrower's profile, and aspiring buyers of Nano are likely to be those moving up from two-wheelers and hobby customers.

The good news is that insurance for the small car could be available for as low as Rs 2,000 and could fall further if Tata assures insurers of the availability of low-cost spares.

The Nano release comes as India's domestic car market is predicted to soar in the coming years on the back of the country's fast-growing economy and increased consumer wealth. Indian car sales are predicted to more than quadruple to $145bn by 2016.

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 14:14

Minimum Possible Palladium September 2008 PAU8 Future Wave I Extension Target is US$553.50 Likely Minimum is US$646.50 per toz

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 14:14

Don't lose the focus here the key is Asian Autocatalyst Demand including Diesel.

Hydrogen Storage and Fuel Cell Technology could also be sizeable demand, as could Asian Jewellry Demand.

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 14:06

Anticipated PGM Usage per Catalytic Converter per Motor Car.

7 grammes of Pt costs US$453.94 (7 X US$64.85 a gramme for Platinum or US$2144.77 ie US$306.40 per gramme for Rhodium)

1 Troy Ounce =31.1035 grammes.

Prices used:-

Pt US$2,017 toz
Rh US$9,530 toz
Pd US$442.00 toz

Cost for Palladium at US$442.00 toz?

7 x US$14.21 per gramme=US$99.47

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 14:01

September Pd Future PA U8 taking Off US$450.00

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 13:39

You gotta look at who is nearest China and India plus proximity of Shipping Links Norilsk Nickel MSE:GMKN can send supplies into China via Trans Siberian Railroad, both Stillwater Mining Co NYSE:SWC and North American Palladium Limited TSE:PDL and AMEX:PAL can ship across Bering Straights.

Khyber Pass opens up India as do standard shipping routes.

All low cost and close.

How can either country not use Palladium in Auto Catalysts?

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 13:36

The Times January 11, 2008



Tata Nano - world's cheapest new car is unveiled in India
(Money Sharma/EPA)
A team of 500 people worked on creating the Nano - Tata aims to prove that India can compete on the world market as an innovative car maker
Ashling O'Connor in Delhi
It is 3 metres long, seats four comfortably or five at a squeeze, does 65mph and aims to revolutionise travel for millions. The "People's Car" is also the cheapest in the world at 100,000 rupees (£1,300) – the same price as the DVD player in a Lexus.

The Nano, from Tata, the Indian conglomerate bidding for Jaguar and Land Rover, was unveiled at the Delhi Auto Expo yesterday to music from 2001: A Space Odyssey. Ratan Tata, the company chairman, harked back to the first flight by the Wright Brothers and the Moon landing as he revealed the cute, snub-nosed hatchback that will allow millions in India's emerging middle classes to buy a car for the first time.

"I hope this changes the way people travel in rural India. We are a country of a billion and most are denied connectivity," he said. "This is a car that is affordable and provides all-weather transport for the family."

The aluminium shell contains a rear-mounted 33bhp two-cylinder petrol engine and weighs about half a tonne. The standard version comes with the vital features: brakes, a four-gear manual transmission, seatbelts, locking, wind-down windows and a steering wheel. A small boot could store a duffel bag. It lacks a passenger-side mirror and has one windscreen wiper. The deluxe version will have air-conditioning while extras such as a radio and an airbag could be added.


Tata has designs on famous British names
Tata could be a prime player in the British luxury car market, if it gets hold of Jaguar and Land Rover

The cheapest cars in the world
Corners cut on cost – and safety with the Tata Nano
Tata wants Ford man for Jaguar-Land Rover
Related Links
Ford doubles Indian production
Tata heads Jaguar and Land Rover race
Multimedia
Pictures: the Tata Nano
The car is the culmination of five years' research and input from across the world, including Italy and Germany. But it was designed and made in India, defying expectations that a company best known for its elephantine lorries could manufacture a cutting-edge passenger product.

Hormazd Sorbajee, editor of Autocar India, said: "As a concept it's brilliant. It's spacious and promises to be fuel efficient."

A team of 500 engineers worked on the car, to be produced at a plant in West Bengal. In an effort to allay fears that something so cheap could not be safe, Mr Tata said that it had passed a full-frontal crash test in India and was designed to sustain further impact testing under European standards.

Tata cut costs by minimising components, particularly steel, and taking advantage of India's low production costs. Because of its size, it uses less sheet metal, has a smaller and lighter engine than other cars, smaller tube-less tyres and a no-frills interior. The company has applied for 34 patents to cover its innovations. "We shrunk it, made the engine smaller and used fewer materials but we haven't taken any shortcuts in term of safety or emissions," Mr Tata said.

The car will be sold first in India from the second half of this year, with an initial annual production run of 250,000, but it is expected to be made available in Latin America, SouthEast Asia and Africa. It could find its way to Europe in a few years but enhancements to meet higher standards would raise the price considerably.

The Nano, at its most basic, is roughly half the price of the cheapest car available today. China's QQ3Y Chery and India's Maruti 800 are both about £2,550. The idea of millions of Nanos on the road alarms environmentalists. Rajendra Pachauri, the chief UN climate scientist, said last month that he was "having nightmares" about it.

Green campaigners point to India's terrible road system and rising pollution levels. "Even if they claim it will be fuel efficient, the sheer numbers will undermine this," Vivek Chattopadhyaya, an air pollution specialist at the Centre for Science and Environment in Delhi, said. "India's infrastructure doesn't have the capacity." The centre estimates that the five million vehicles on Delhi roads today meet only a fifth of the capital's transport needs. Most people travel by bus but could be convinced to buy a car at such a low price. Delhi, where air pollution levels are more than twice the safe limit, is already registering 1,000 new vehicles a day. As more cars hit the road, the average speed at peak times has fallen to 7mph, which should at least ease concerns about safety in case of accidents.

Shekhar Mehta, 27, from Ahmeda-bad, said: "It looks like a good city drive. The body doesn't look too safe but it's better than an autorickshaw."

As Greenpeace activists outside the show held banners demanding "Cut CO2 emissions", Mr Tata dismissed environmental concerns. He said that his car, which does 50 miles to the gallon, would conform to all emission standards in India and Europe. "We need to think of our masses. Should they be denied the right to an individual form of transport?" he asked.

This for £1,300 . . .

Top speed 65mph
Engine rear-mounted 623cc, 33bhp multipoint fuel injection engine
Transmission continuous variable transmission
Fuel consumption 50mpg
Body sheet metal with crumple zones
Extras air conditioning and airbag optional. No radio, no power steering, one windscreen wiper

or one of these instead

For the same price in Auto Trader you could have a:

- 1993 Land Rover Discovery TDI S, 174,000 miles, 7 seats, towbar, alloy wheels, sunroof. Short MoT and tax

- 1983 Porsche 944 Lux 2.7 FH, 2dr Coupe, 116,000 miles, 10 months' MoT, 5 months' tax, MP3 CD player

- 1962 Triumph Herald 1200 Coupe, 70,000 miles, 2 doors, manual 4 speed, 3 owners, not much rust

- 1996 3-door Vauxhall Calibra 2.0i 16v (trade) with 159,359 miles and equipped with ABS, adjustable seats, alloy wheels, central locking and driver airbag

- 1998 Ford Mondeo 1.8i GLX, 5-door, 99,000 miles, two previous owners, ABS, adjustable seats, air conditioning, CD player and central locking

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 11:34

If Rhodium and Palladium are both used in Auto Catalysts and Catalysts as a whole why is Palladium US$438 and Rhodium US$9,530 per troy ounce?

Is Palladium being sold as Rhodium?

Who could tell the Difference in PGM Salts form?

Perhaps a Nice Helpful National Paper Journalist would be good enough to ask Johnson Mathey LSE:JMAT this question?

[le couteau tombant] 13/6/2008 10:18

US$455.40 then US$478.80 next moves.

Miniumum Possible Move US$451.60, Minimum Likely Move US$468.70.

Resistance US$445.90

[le couteau tombant] 12/6/2008 20:30

Palladium Up at one Stage TODAY US$19.40 in September 2008 Future US$426.50 to US$445.90!



[ Daily Quotes ] [ Weekly Quotes ] [ Monthly Quotes ]

It's a volatile world. Be ready to trade when markets react. Lind-Waldock.
Date Open High Low Last Change
06/12/08 431.25 445.90 426.50 443.70 +10.70
06/11/08 425.25 434.55 424.00 433.00 +4.75
06/10/08 429.60 431.25 425.00 428.25 -1.35
06/09/08 438.00 440.90 426.50 429.60 -4.20
06/06/08 433.00 440.00 432.00 433.80 +6.40


-- Period -- -- High -- -- Low -- -- Percent Change --
5-Days 445.90 on 06/12/08 424.00 on 06/11/08 +2.28% since 06/06/08
20-Days 467.15 on 05/21/08 417.50 on 06/05/08 -2.95% since 05/16/08
65-Days 520.40 on 03/14/08 403.00 on 05/01/08 -14.33% since 03/14/08
100-Days 593.70 on 02/28/08 392.00 on 01/25/08 +13.19% since 01/25/08
260-Days 593.70 on 02/28/08 342.25 on 08/22/07 +12.90% since 07/19/07
Year to Date 593.70 on 02/28/08 370.85 on 01/22/08 +14.02% since 01/02/08



For The Last Made New High Percent From Made New Low Percent From
5-Days 3 time(s) -0.49% 4 time(s) +4.65%
20-Days 2 time(s) -5.02% 6 time(s) +6.28%
65-Days 1 time(s) -14.74% 10 time(s) +10.10%
100-Days 15 time(s) -25.27% 1 time(s) +13.19%
260-Days 18 time(s) -25.27% 13 time(s) +29.64%
Year to Date 18 time(s) -25.27% 7 time(s) +19.64%

[le couteau tombant] 12/6/2008 20:13

Palladium: The Other White Metal
by: Hard Assets Investor posted on: December 20, 2007

Pork is often advertised as "The Other White Meat." Within the platinum family, palladium could promote itself as "The Other White Metal." With platinum prices now above $1,500 per ounce, cousin palladium is getting a lot more attention from jewelry consumers.

Palladium trades for a quarter of platinum's cost, a fact Chinese consumers have deeply appreciated. China is the world's leading consumer of platinum for jewelry use, but buyer resistance to ever-increasing prices has allowed palladium jewelry to make substantial inroads. More than a fifth of the world's net palladium supply now goes to jewelry, with most of the demand arising in China.

Like platinum, palladium can be fashioned into jewelry as a stand-alone or alloyed with other metals. Palladium, for example, can be substituted for nickel in the manufacture of white gold.

Palladium wasn't always a poor relation, though. Palladium, in fact, actually cost more than platinum back in 2001. The technology to efficiently cast palladium as jewelry didn't exist then. With that problem now resolved, jewelry use has spiked as the price trajectories of platinum and palladium reversed.

Palladium's not all glitz and glamour, though. The metal has industrial applications as well: in dentistry, in automotive components and in electronics. Russia's the top producer of palladium, with at least half the world share, followed by South Africa, the United States and Canada.

Knowing all this should leave you with two questions:

a) Who's dictating demand for palladium?
b) Who controls supply?
[Answer hint: It ain't us.]

Platinum-To-Palladium Ratio




If your answers to the quiz compel you to think palladium's potential impressive, you can, of course, trade the metal through NYMEX futures. Outside of a commodity account, you can also obtain palladium exposure through an exchange-traded note (RJZ) based upon the Rogers International Commodity Index's metals subindex. RJZ carries a 1.4% weighting in palladium futures.

Another exchange-traded portfolio (RSX), tracking the DAXglobal Russia+ Index, has an 8.6% weighting in JSC MMC Norilsk, the primary producer of Russian palladium.

And for those investors looking for opportunities closer to home, the stock of two North American producers can be considered:

Stillwater Mining Co.: A subsidiary of Norimet Ltd., Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC) refines palladium, platinum and associated minerals from its Billings, Mont., base. The company claims 2.5 million ounces in proven reserves of palladium plus platinum.

North American Palladium: Headquartered in Toronto, North American Palladium (PAL) mines platinum group metals as well as other metals. PAL's principal property is an open-pit operation that produces platinum, gold, copper and nickel as by-products.

[le couteau tombant] 12/6/2008 17:14

The Specific Gravity at Room Temperature of Platinum 21.45 g per cm3, Palladium 12.023 g per cm3 ie Platinum is 178.40% of the Density of Palladium.

By Weight Platinum US$2016 per toz (US$64.82 per gramme)Palladium US$427 per toz (US$13.73 per gramme), ie 472.13% of the price.

Hence you can make 178.40% of 472.13% of the amount of Palladium Salts as opposed to Platinum Salts for Catalytic Converters for your US Dollar ie 842.28% (8.42 times the amount for your money, Dollar, Euro, Pound, Renimbi, Rupee etc).

Obviously Palladium/Platinum Arbitrage is far, far, far too wide currently, and the Balance must readdress, ie Palladium needs to go back to at least US$1100 per toz as India and China by definition have millions of cars to make, with an average unskilled labour wage of US$100 to US$200 per calendar month.

Never mind the Rarity of Palladium, PGMs are allegedly circa 34 times rarer than Gold in the Earth's crust (Irridium is the Rarest from memory) there is no logical reason for Palladium to be trading at half the Gold Price, especially as it is effectively consumed by being turned into salts in Auto Catalysts, the situation is daft for a metal with such robust Industrial usages!

How else could a memeber of the Chinese or Indian Public manage to purchase a car or a motor manufacturer make a car for the mass markets of Asia?

[le couteau tombant] 12/6/2008 15:56

Thursday, September 6, 2007
China and Palladium

This report analyses the upcoming impact on the Palladium market of China industrialisation and motorisation over the next 20 years. China is already a net importer of Palladium and Platinum as shown by the charts below based on UN trade data:






CPM estimates that 800,000 ounces of palladium were used in China in 2006, up about one-third from 600,000 ounces in 2006, CPM also forecasts a 10% increase in Chinese demand for palladium for 2007. The chart below (WTO data) shows the growth of the USD value of China Imports of Silver platinum and other metals of the platinum group from 2001 to 2005:






China being net importer of PGM is not surprising considering the China economy size and growing importance and the absence of significant PGM domestic production.

Accordingly to the USGS the only potential source of PGM inside China is the Jinchuan deposit in the Gobi desert in central China: Jinchuan mine was discovered in 1958, and it is one of the most famous large multi-metal associated nickel and copper sulphide deposits in the world. The ore bodies mainly scatter over an area of 6.5 kilometers long by 500 meters wide along the foot of Mountain Longshou. The proven ore reserves are 520 million tons, in which nickel reserves are 5.5 million tons, which are ranked the third largest deposit of its kind in the world, and copper reserves are 3.43 million tons, the second largest in China. The results of geologic exploration of recent years have shown that there exists a good prospect of new ore-bodies exploitation at deep, edge and periphery areas of Jinchuan nickel deposit. The Jinchuan deposit is also a platinum group element (PGE)-rich sulfide deposit. Drilling and surface sampling show that three categories of platinum group element (PGE) mineralization occur; type I formed at magmatic temperatures, type II occurs in hydrothermally altered zones of the intrusion, and type III in sheared dunite and lherzolite. The Jinchuan deposit is mined by Jinchuan Group Limited (JNMC) that produces nickel, copper, cobalt, rare and precious metals and also some chemical products such as sulfuric acid, caustic soda, liquid chlorine, hydrochloric acid and sodium sulfite, together with some further processed nonferrous metals products. JNMC output of nickel and platinum group metals respectively accounts for more than 88% and 90% of the total in China. Jinchuan Group Ltd is the largest producer of nickel, cobalt and platinum group metals in China, Jinchuan Group Ltd has had an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of nickel, 120,000 tons of copper, 1,500 tons of cobalt, 2,000 kilograms (64,000 troy ounces) of platinum group metals (PGMs) and 500,000 tons of sulfuric acid.


Topographic maps courtesy of USGS.







The above topographic maps are very significant, China is rich of Gold, Silver, Nickel, Copper, Lead, Zinc but it is very poor as far as PGE are concerned: the only Platinum Group Metal mine of China has an annual capacity of less than 100,000 ounces of PGM.

The economy of the People's Republic of China is the fourth largest in the world when measured by nominal GDP. Its economic output for 2006 was $2.68 trillion USD. Its per capita GDP in 2006 was approximately US $2,000 (US $7,600 with PPP), still low by world standards (110th of 183 nations in 2005), but rising rapidly. China is set to become the world's biggest economy by 2026 (according to a poll conducted on behalf of the BBC): China will need and consume significant quantities of PGM, its lack of PGM resources will force it to import PGM from Russia, North America and South Africa. It is the purpose of this study to estimate the impact of the Chinese demand on the Palladium and Platinum market in the next few years and its dramatic consequences on supply and demand balances.





CHINESE AUTO MARKET AND PALLADIUM

The main driver of Chinese PGM demand over the next few years will be the autocatalysts market. China is home to the fastest-growing automobile market in the world: sales of automobiles continue to rise rapidly in China. Euro II equivalent emission legislation covers all light vehicles, requiring autocatalysts to be fitted. More stringent legislation will be implemented in 2007 which will further boost demand for Platinum and Palladium. In China last year, the number of cars on the road jumped by nearly 50%. Sales of domestically produced automobiles soared by 70%. The number of cars on the road is expected to increase at least 10% per year through the rest of the decade. The number could even be bigger because the Chinese are discovering new car financing. China has also announced its intentions to impose strict emission standards prior to the 2008 Olympics: more stringent emissions standards mean more and better catalytic converters and that means more platinum and palladium. Different regulatory approaches are taken around the world to prevent traffic jams and to improve air quality. It wasn't until 2000 that China passed its first comprehensive emissions law and made catalytic converters, which clean vehicle exhaust, mandatory. China has modeled is auto-emissions standards after those in Europe. Still, most of the country still lags behind Europe, using rules implemented there back in 1996. Beijing has a stricter standard, in line with regulations set by the European Union in 2000. The entire nation is slated to move to that cleaner standard by 2008.

Johnson Matthey, a world leader in advanced materials technology and leading precious metals refiner is a very active player in the emission control catalyst sector, in which it is one of the world's leaders. In its March 2007 interim results, JM reported a 34% increase in revenue. Catalyst sales were up 11%, citing from their website: "... Environmental Catalysts and Technologies' (ECT's) sales were well ahead of last year with good growth in autocatalyst sales in Asia, increased sales of catalysed soot filters (CSFs) in Europe and the emergence of the new market for heavy duty diesel (HDD) catalysts in both Europe and North America.." Johnson Matthey results prove that platinum and palladium demand for autocatalyst from Asia is already starting to kick in. JM also noted that until recently platinum had been the only metal capable of doing the work of a diesel catalyst, although the development of diesel fuel technology has meant that palladium may now partially be substituted for platinum This development has yet to have a meaningful impact on the palladium market although it is arguable that by the end of this calendar year diesel will form a noticeable part of palladium's demand in the emission control sector.

Palladium, as noted above, will start to impinge on platinum's use in this diesel autocatalysts, even if at the moment it seems that palladium can take no more than 25% by weight of platinum's current demand in the sector, some experts expect this ratio to reach 40% thanks to technology breakthroughs and prices pushing for more Palladium substitution in coming years.

On top of that, we have rapidly increasing demand for cars in China. The upside pressure this could put on palladium demand is extraordinary, intuitively with the auto industry switching to Palladium over Platinum and China's auto industry booming, it will not take long for supplies of Palladium to shrink. The U.S. Defense Departments logistical stockpiles of Palladium are being sold and the auto industry has depleted its own stockpile. The only stockpile of Palladium existing in the world is owned by the Russian government but it is rapidly shrinking (from 20 millions troy ounces in 2000 it is believed to be around 6/8 millions today, although the exact amount are impossible to be estimated since it's a Russian State secret.

The booming China car market may have an impact on PGM prices over the next few years similar to the impact the Chinese demand had on base metals over the last 4 years: the need of base metal for the construction boom in China contributed to a 400% rise in Copper, Nickel, Zinc and Lead prices.

I will try now to quantify the potential Palladium demand for autocatalysts from China over the next 20 years. First of all, it is necessary to estimate the size of the Chinese automarket over the same time horizon. The privately owned cars sales in China have reached to 22 Million in 2006, and the country is witnessing a strong economic growth, the craze among consumers for new cars is still on. The ongoing craze of cars in China is fueled by the country's enormous economic growth. For this new emerging class of modern consumers, car is the first commodity on the purchase list. There has been a tremendous growth in the Chinese car purchase market, ever since 2000. Passenger cars today account for nearly half of the country's total production of automobiles. By 2020, there are predicted to be 140 million automobiles on China's roads, and the figure will keep increasing in the following years, by 2040 maybe a quarter of a billion (about the same number of cars as there are in the U.S. today). If China eventually attains American levels of prosperity, which it might, it could easily double that number.


In 2006, the Chinese auto market sold 7.22 Million vehicles, an increased 25% over the year 2005, and China became the 2nd largest auto industry in world, by overtaking Japan.

The chart below shows the Chinese car production per year from 1998 to 2006 (data from OICA).





In the next years, a growth of around 15% per annum is expected in the auto part segment of China. Even if China is already the world's 2nd biggest auto market, the auto penetration in China is just approximately 2% : the growth potential is huge. According to the research company AC Nielsen, China also has more people who aspire to own a car, but currently do not, than any other country. A global online survey on car ownership and purchase intentions conducted recently by ACNielsen reveals that people in Asia are the most 'aspirational' when it comes to car ownership in the next 12 months when compared with their American and European counterparts.

Car ownership - Top 10 ranked countries




China, while ranking low in current car ownership, was found to have the most car-aspiring respondents, despite potential car buyers accounting for a small portion of the population.

I have estimated the potential Chinese motor vehicle production of the next 20 years using a decreasing annual rate of growth (10% for the first years and 3% for the last years resulting in a conservative average rate of growth of 8%).



Accordingly to my estimate China will have 150 millions of cars on its roads and will be producing 28 millions of cars by 2020. The above numbers may look aggressive but they are not, they are more conservative that it seems: the Chinese automotive market is at the same stage of development of the US automotive market in 1916 and making a parallel with the USA with historic US data from 1916 to 1936 ( a period including WWI, the roaring twenties and the great depression) one may also think that the Chinese market coulf grow faster than the above estimates.

The charts below shows the USA car ownership data from 1900 to the present time:






The chart below show the future Chinese car ownership data if the same % ownership of the US market from 1916 to 1936 are used as benchmark.





The chart below compares my forecast of the annual cars production level in China for the next 20 years with a forecast of the annual cars production level in China if the same % growth rates of the US market from 1916 to 1936 are used as benchmark.





Using my estimate of the annual cars production level in China for the next 20 years , I will try to predict the potential Chinese Palladium demand for autocatalysts under the following assumptions: current load rates vs. Platinum, the typical usage rate of the current technology, emission control standards similar to European ones.





The above chart speaks for itself: Chinese are currently consuming less than 200,000 t. ounces of Palladium for autocatalysts, if my estimate is correct, they will need double their demand by 2009, later, by 2015 they will need 1,000,000 t. ounces per year and over 2,000,000 ounces of Palladium per year in 2025. The Chinese biggest Palladium producer has a production capacity of 64,000 ounces as of today and there is only one PGM deposit in China, China will need to import more than 90% of their domestic consumption of Palladium. The world Palladium market will become more and more tight considering that during the same years other developing countries like India will start their motorisation process and will create additional demand.



CHINESE JEWELLERY PALLADIUM DEMAND

To estimate the palladium jewellery demand of China I assume a 5% rate of growth from 2006 level of 760,000 troy ounces, with such rate of growth the demand for jewellery in China may reach 2,000,000 ounces in 20 years.



CONCLUSION

Accordingly to my study and estimate, it is clear that China is going to become the biggest consumer of Palladium in the world consuming almost 2 millions of ounces of Palladium in 2015 considering only autocatalysts and jewellery demand (demand for other applications such electronics, dental, chemical may well count for a 20% or 30% of additional demand of Palladium). Unless new PGM deposits are discovered and developed in China, all the Palladium will need to be imported from producers country such South Africa, Russia, and North America, for this reason I am very bullish for the long term prospects of all PGM mining companies of these countries.

It must also be remembered that the Chinese demand will make increasingly tighter and already tight market. Will the supply of PGM in the next years be able to meet the demand of the current G7 countries (already heavy users of PGM) plus the demand of the new superpower China and the demand of other developing countries like India? I think that supply will not be able to keep pace with demand and a structural deficit of PGM in few years we drive prices much higher than now. A market equilibrium will be probably found when with much higher PGM prices than now, users will eventually find substitution metals (when possible) and some market demand for PGM will disappear (such the dental demand for example), also, if new PGM deposits are discovered and economically developed the upward pressure on prices will be reduced. On the other hand, what is going to happen if new exploitable deposits are not found, existing stockpiles are depleted and new applications for PGM that today are at a research stage (such fuel cells) become commercial? In my opinion a super bull market for PGM is likely for the next 10/20 years: Platinum rally has already started, I bet on Palladium which is going to follow Platinum soon and eventually catch up.




The best way to play this super-bull over the next 10/20 years? For risk lovers PGM miners, for more conservative investors physical Palladium (coins, bars). Volatility in PGM market will increase and any deep or correction will be good buying opportunities for the next 10/20 years.

[sbs] 23/5/2008 17:56

It's already one of the most valuable metals on earth ;-)

[pecker1] 23/5/2008 16:33

More on cold or what is now called low-energy nuclear fusion:



FWIW, they can't all be charlatans. If there is something real here, palladium could become one of the most valuable metals on earth.

[bushtuckaman] 19/2/2008 19:29

Much appreciated peeps.

[qwerty1234] 19/2/2008 17:18

bush

symbols PHPT and PHPD spring to mind

[mcbeanburger] 19/2/2008 12:15

bush - i wouldn't touch a pgm etf with a barg pole. it needs to correct.