Phoenix Global Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mr ashley james] 09/4/2006 17:36

GS Sands,

Looks like Palladium set up for a move to around US$381 next week if a Beta Wave Zig Zag developes as I expect.

Tightening Bollinger Bands herald the move I think.



All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 03/4/2006 18:47

TOH,

Sorry I do not think so, you might give Johnson Matthey a ring ask them how you get exposure to Iridium Ruthenium or Rhodium prices.

Not sure outside of NYMEX quoted how you can get Futures prices.

Sorry do not know.

Cheers

Ash:)

[trade 0utta here] 02/4/2006 22:49

Great thread
Any way of betting on prices of metals other than Pt and Pd?

[mr ashley james] 02/4/2006 21:36

David,

I have taken the liberty of putting all Five Commercial PGM Charts in thread header ie Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium, Iridium, and Ruthenium, there is no real market for Osmium it is deadly toxic in Oxide form apparently.











Useful to calculate Basket Prices

Thanks for your help.

Cheers

Ash:)

[biswell] 02/4/2006 21:17

Ash

OK ... On the ASX How about starting a board for DNL it's starting to gain momentum

Stainless steel is coming back into fashion in 2006/7

B

[doobydave] 02/4/2006 21:09

Want an iridium chart? you go, Ashley!

You can dictate your own time parameters, but voila the 'preset' 1 year chart:



See what I mean about it rocketing? Enjoy,
David

[mr ashley james] 02/4/2006 21:04

Cheers David,



Iridium at highest level since July 2002!
By Jon Nones
31 Mar 2006 at 02:11 PM

Spot iridium, a minor platinum-group metal (PGM) used in chemicals and electronics, was last quoted at $300/320 an ounce on Friday, up some $50 from a week ago - the highest since July 2002.

Traders said end-user buying in a small market lifted prices that have risen some 82% in a year, according to MiningWeekly.

"The market is going up, and it is industrial demand. Unlike other metals, the influence of speculators is limited," a trader said.

Platinum is near record highs of $1,093 an ounce, while palladium has touched $348 an ounce, its best for over three years. Rhodium hit hit levels around $4,300 an ounce at the start of the week, the highest since 1991, but has since settled back at $4,000/4,100

[doobydave] 02/4/2006 20:54

Short snippet on iridium here:

[mr ashley james] 02/4/2006 19:25

TOH,

Yes I think so, my reasoning is relatively simple, there is a gap above, the A of B of B is short so there is a reasonably high chance C of B will go impulse up in a rapidly moving spike, the set up looks like effectively a Wave V failure to drive a lower low configuration.



You have a kind of inverted head and shoulders from US$321 to a neckline around US$337 down to breach around US$334 so I am expecting a move up of roughly US$13 to US$16 probably to around US$347 to US$350 in the June Futures.

I am expecting a EW Move to say around US$346.70 bid, consolidation maybe then, perhaps US$356.40, consolidation, then possibly maximum likely around US$372.10 on next stage up.

Wave A, B C Waterfall if C V failure at US$331 looks to have Retraced 100% by time of 1.236 day up Wave V up at 1.236 days roughly and C looks like to Retraced around 1.618 x Wave V up length.

C III seem to hit 423.60% of Wave A length US$355.20 to US$347.10 ie US$8.10 at US$321.00 ie drop of US$34.20

So I think corrective is complete personally.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[trade 0utta here] 02/4/2006 10:43

AJ

WHat do you think Pd will retrace to? Do you think 330 will hold?
Many thanks for all your great posts.

[maximoney1] 31/3/2006 22:27

Cheers ash....no probs, look forward to it.

[mr ashley james] 31/3/2006 22:14

GS Sands

I was expecting SWC to hit US$17.49 it hit US$17.33, remember it is America's sole Palladium/Platinum Producer hence US Funds have little other domestic avenue to play.

I have not recently analysed it in detail, perhaps I need to my gut feeling if they sort Unions out, Vladimir Potanin of Norilsk Nickel cuts labour back, increases production to full mill capacity, it is a US$2.50bn market cap stock.

Whether this happens on not difficult to call, afterall Palladium I am very Bullish on, and SWC has gone to dizzy heights on a US$1,100 per toz Pd Commodity Price.

We will see been in for ages ie well in profit.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Enjoy your weekend

Cheers

Ash:)

PS Maximoney not ignoring you will try to address issues you raise tomorrow or whenever.

[gsands] 31/3/2006 19:09

Here is another one I'd like to see unwind a bit too (no position.....yet)

[gsands] 31/3/2006 19:05

Ash,

Be good to see it unwind a bit and backtest:



free stock charts from ADVFN.COM


Looks nice and healthy though - medium/long term.

[maximoney1] 31/3/2006 18:12

Ash.... excuse my nievity, but i had thought the platinum/palladium equity plays would have reacted quickly to the 'nymex PL06j/PA06M' drops as they were quite substantial and i believe more to come as they test the lower trend supports, however ive noticed several equities have risen.....RDG^1.2%, MIO^3.5%,LMI^1.6%,JLP^2.8%,AQP^2.1% etc etc. Is this a sign of underlying 'long term' strength or a short term divergence waiting to be corrected? Surely there isnt a time lag between the nymex showing weakness and the corresponding equities reacting?

Hope you will bear with me on my learning curve...lol.
If your busy, just ignore the post...i'm quite sure you will answer way too many begginners posts as it is.....lol.

Maxi.

[mr ashley james] 31/3/2006 17:46

Mike,

Sorry don't invest or trade in London nowadays, if you see ASX, JSE, TSE/TSX plays interested not London least of all AIM due market makers spreads transaction costs etc, market maker manipulation of prices making false markets, quality of IPO's, lax AIM rules, Hedge Fund percentage of volumes, short selling of illiquid shares, gearing, margin trading, ie completely ficticious marketplace of dubious quality and little realistic short, medium, or long term chance of making a profit as an investor.

The only people who make money in London are basically the Brokers, Banks and MMs hence £7.50 Billion Bonuses last year.

Good luck with it

No disrespect but can we please keep this BB to discuss PGM Shares and PGM Commodities Bull or Bear?

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[biswell] 31/3/2006 17:43

Ash, CRX was No1 gainer today...but finished No2, results next wednesday


biswell - 22 Mar'06 - 17:49 - 52 of 101 edit


Ashes

CRX may well be worth a punt

UK AIM Pharma

B

[mr ashley james] 31/3/2006 17:39

GS Sands,

Palladium Nice long Gap down, Wave A III to US$321.50 to take out the stops, looks like someone trying to build a big Palladium Position by whipsawing out the trailing stops with US$33.70 Offer to bid drop from yesterday, ie huge volatility 9.49% drop from yesterday's high.

At least A III extends so Gamma Wave will not be likely to go impulse.



Interested to see how they set up B wave, with so many gaps ie vacuums of Resistance above.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[gsands] 30/3/2006 14:53

What's your view of RDG as a Pd play? Chart doesn't look great currently but perhaps better than the likes of AQP which could be getting over-extended?

Lomin chart looks good but like AQP has put in some colloasal rises since Q4 last year and as such makes mne nervous....

[gsands] 30/3/2006 14:51

Yes - looking good. We might get a little back test of the break at 320 at some point - which would be good as it would allow me to take out a little long bet on the commodity.

[mr ashley james] 30/3/2006 13:35

GS,

Palladium PA06M June 2006





Phase III Rise move to US$353.50 per toz already confirmed in June 2005 Futures, should see my US$354.50 R 2 target in place today I think.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 29/3/2006 19:54

April Platinum US$1079.00

[gsands] 27/3/2006 19:27

Thanks Ash,


ASX= Australia
JSE=???

How do you get exposure to the ASX and JSE markets?

Irrespecive of what exchange: Which would be number 2 and 3 on your list of best risk/reward plays on a rising Pd price (given that PLAA seems to be your number one favourite at the moment).

TIA.

[mr ashley james] 27/3/2006 15:04

GS Sands,

US$341.00 Palladium in June 2006 Futures, looks like Pd going to next level US$354.50 per toz

Looking at chart looks like next week Pd should move to US$339.75, consolidation, probably backtest of US$330.50 area then next move to US$354.50 to US$354.75, consolidation around US$339.50 to US$339.75 area then move to US$378.75 to US$379.00 area at a guess.

You asked best PGM Play in North America, not aware of any good ones primary listed in London, highest gearing to Palladium Price with grades is probably Beartooth Platinum Limited TSX:BTP, otherwise you are stuck with bigger producers Stillwater Mining Inc NYSE:SWC and North American Palladium Limited TSE:PDL AMEX:PAL others grades are pretty low in or around Sudbury Basin Ontario, in RSA TSE:PTM Platinum Group Metals Limited OK IMO

In my experience a lot of best PGM Plays seems to be ASX or JSE Listed

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)